112
FXUS63 KJKL 080911
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
411 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY BETWEEN FRIDAY
MORNING AND SATURDAY. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO FAVOR
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
- LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT THE FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER RISKS REMAIN LOW.
- A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
THE 0730Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND. THIS FEATURE IS MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TO THE WEST, A 997 MB SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED EAST OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN PIEDMONT, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ORIENTED
EASTWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTHEAST, A WIDESPREAD CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA. CONSEQUENTLY,
THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING A NOTABLE RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT; WAA IS
KEEPING RIDGETOPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, WHILE SUFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE PROTECTED VALLEYS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY,
SUPPORTING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY HITTING 70 DEGREES. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND THE APPROACHING LOW. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH, ARE EXPECTED. THIS SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN IS DRIVEN BY A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH. AS THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD, THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PLACE THE
REGION FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD, ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 50S. A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT;
WHILE AN INVERSION NEAR 850 MB WILL INITIALLY LIMIT DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER, SURFACE GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE AS
THE INVERSION WEAKENS.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
A SLOW FROPA EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
BOUNDARY, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WHILE THE SPC HAS
INTRODUCED A DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK FOR THESE AREAS, THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS LIMITED BY MEAGER INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS, WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST, THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. INCREASED SURFACE WINDS AND GUSTS
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE; WHILE SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WINDOW.
IN SUMMARY, THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENSURING DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY, FOLLOWED BY AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR,
GUSTY WINDS, SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CUBA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING NORTH NEAR TO EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WITH THE AXIS OF THAT RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH TO THE WEST OF THE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS TO NEAR THE BC COAST. IN BETWEEN A TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CANADA SOUTH THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS AS WELL AS CENTRAL CONUS. AN INITIAL SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE MAY BE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE EAST AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WHILE A MORE
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO INITIALLY EXTEND FROM ONTARIO TO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO MO, AN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NM, WITH YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA INTO MT AND WY
TO CO FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE BORDER OF ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN MI VICINITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIFTING ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN KY TO PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINAS. THAT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. AT THAT POINT, THE
12Z LREF MEAN HAS PW RANGING FROM THE AROUND 0.9 INCHES OR ABOUT
THE 90TH PERCENTILE ALONG THE VA BORDER UP TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES OR
NEAR THE 98TH PERCENTILE IN THE WEST AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES
ALOFT WILL HAVE TRANSPORTED IN A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS.
ON FRIDAY, THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE ONE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES AND REACHES ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. FURTHER WEST,
TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE UPPER LOW TREKKING
FROM NM TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE VICINITY. MEANWHILE, THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT ACROSS AND THEN NORTH OF EASTERN
KY AS THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO QUEBEC. THE COLD
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD APPROACH EASTERN KY AND SAG INTO THE
OH VALLEY TEMPORARILY ON FRIDAY TO FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, WITH
THE UPPER LOW LIKELY TO BECOME AND OPEN WAVE AND BEGIN TO MERGE
WITH THE TROUGHING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD DEVELOP/ORGANIZE IN THE TX VICINITY AND TREK TOWARD THE TN
AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGIONS FRIDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SATURDAY CAUSES
THE BOUNDARY TO BUCKLE BACK TO THE NORTH FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN TREK TO THE GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP/ORGANIZE
OVER THE DAKOTAS VICINITY DROP SOUTH TOWARD IA AND IL AND THEN
REACH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
APPROACHES EASTERN KY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
TREK ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH FAIRLY EARLY ON SATURDAY AND REACH
THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE LOW GRADUALLY
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALSO CROSS
EASTERN KY ON SATURDAY WITH A PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
FOLLOWING. OVERALL, DURING THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS
OF THE 500 MB TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF EASTERN KY DURING THIS
TIME.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS THAT THERE IS
VARIABILITY IN QPF MAINLY AS THE SECONDARY SFC WAVE TRACKS INTO
THE OH VALLEY AND DEPARTS TO THE NORTH INTO SATURDAY. SOME OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS AT TIMES HAVE BEEN CONSIDERABLY HEAVIER WITH
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING QPF NEARER TO THE TN AND VA
BORDER IN PARTICULAR OR MORE OR LESS THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN
WHEN COMPARED TO THE NBM DETERMINISTIC AND ECMWF QPF FOR INSTANCE.
A DRY PERIOD HAS FOLLOWED RAIN THAT FELL ON DECEMBER 29TH SO
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT ABNORMALLY MOIST SO THAT SHOULD BE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR HYDRO CONCERNS UNLESS LARGER TOTALS WERE TO
OCCUR LOCALLY IN A 6 TO 12 HOURS PERIOD. STRONGER SHOWERS OR ANY
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS. MOST OF THE AREA FOR DAY 3 IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK (10% PROBABILITY OF A STORM), THOUGH THE LATEST DAY 3
OUTLOOK HAS SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK. INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AT BEST, BUT A STRAY STORM OR SHOWERS
THAT MIXED DOWN SOME HIGHER MOMENTUM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ON AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A SECONDARY FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
OTHER WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD
INCLUDE POSSIBLE PEAK WIND GUSTS SEVERAL MPH HIGHER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST ON FRIDAY ASSUMING SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THE
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLIES OCCURS AS SHOWERS ARRIVE AND SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST. THERE ALSO MAY BE A PERIOD OF DRY SLOTTING IN THE
MID LEVELS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST AND WITHIN THAT A FEW PEAK GUSTS SEVERAL
MPH HIGHER THE CURRENT HOURLY FORECAST WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH SUNDAY IN SUNDAY EVENING WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE WINTER TIME LEVELS AROUND THE -10C
TO ABOUT THE -12C LEVEL PER THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. SOME LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
COULD RESULT IN INITIALLY A FEW FLURRIES IN THE WEST AND SOME
SPRINKLES IN THE WEST AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. IF THESE OCCUR
WHATEVER FALLS WOULD BE MORE IN THE WAY OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE
HEATING OF THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN BE NO HIGHER THAN THE 30S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS A
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TO CAROLINAS INTO THE ATLANTIC. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING AND DEGREE OF CLEARING A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT MAY OCCUR AT
LEAST OVER MORE WESTERN LOCATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT COLDER
OVERNIGHT LOWS TYPICAL OF WINTER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THERE. THE
COLD AIR MASS LINGERS INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
PEAK ON THE ORDER OF 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS WOULD BE FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST A MODERATE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT AS THOSE AREA MAY DECOUPLE
EARLY IN THE EVENING AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK ABOVE
TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR HIGHS. ANOTHER
TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD APPROACH AS THE END OF THE PERIOD
NEARS LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER AND MORE
UNIFORM AND A TREND TO MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS. PENDING THE TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE AREA
AT MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
RADIATION FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LOW VIS OR CIGS AT
LOZ AND SME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS AFTER 00Z FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
AND THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AS
WELL AS LLWS ALOFT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...CMC
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