726
FXUS63 KJKL 081836
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
136 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY BETWEEN FRIDAY
MORNING AND SATURDAY. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO FAVOR
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
- LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT THE FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER RISKS REMAIN LOW.
- A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM DESPITE BANDS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 60 OR THE
LOW 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND IN AREAS OF MORE OPEN
TERRAIN/RIDGETOPS, THOUGH TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOW LYING AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS LAG BEHIND AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION HAS NOT
COMPLETELY MIXED OUT YET. FOR NOW, OPTED TO UPDATE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION TRENDS.
FORECAST HIGHS APPEAR REACHABLE AS THERE ARE UPSTREAM BREAKS IN
THE HIGH CLOUDS SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO HIGHS AS OF YET.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
THE 0730Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND. THIS FEATURE IS MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TO THE WEST, A 997 MB SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED EAST OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN PIEDMONT, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ORIENTED
EASTWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTHEAST, A WIDESPREAD CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA. CONSEQUENTLY,
THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING A NOTABLE RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT; WAA IS
KEEPING RIDGETOPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, WHILE SUFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE PROTECTED VALLEYS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY,
SUPPORTING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY HITTING 70 DEGREES. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND THE APPROACHING LOW. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH, ARE EXPECTED. THIS SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN IS DRIVEN BY A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH. AS THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD, THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PLACE THE
REGION FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD, ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 50S. A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT;
WHILE AN INVERSION NEAR 850 MB WILL INITIALLY LIMIT DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER, SURFACE GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE AS
THE INVERSION WEAKENS.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
A SLOW FROPA EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
BOUNDARY, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WHILE THE SPC HAS
INTRODUCED A DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK FOR THESE AREAS, THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS LIMITED BY MEAGER INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS, WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST, THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. INCREASED SURFACE WINDS AND GUSTS
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE; WHILE SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WINDOW.
IN SUMMARY, THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENSURING DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY, FOLLOWED BY AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR,
GUSTY WINDS, SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STARTING FRIDAY EVENING, WILL FEATURE A COLD
FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST, PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AN AREA ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT, AND ANY
CONVECTIVE LINE APPROACHES OR ENTERS EASTERN KENTUCKY, A LOT OF THE
LIMITED ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY, FROM THE DAY, WILL HAVE TAPERED OFF.
THIS COLD FRONT, FROM AN EXITING SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND, WILL STALL OUT OVER SE KENTUCKY
NEAR THE APPALACHIANS. ADDITIONALLY, A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE LEE SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
US, AND EJECT EAST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND EVENTUALLY THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS STALLED COLD
FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS HAPPENS, WHILE DEW POINTS REMAINS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) IS
FORECASTED AROUND 1.25 INCHES WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LREF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED DOWN
SOME ACROSS THE NORTH. PREVIOUS CHANCES OF SEEING 1 INCH OF RAINFALL
NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WAS AROUND 40-50%. THOSE CHANCES HAVE NOW
DROPPED TO A 10-20% CHANCE. A 20-50% CHANCE OF SEEING 1 INCH SOUTH
OF I-64 BUT NORTH OF THE HAL-ROGERS/KY-80 CORRIDOR IS DOWN FROM A 50-
80% CHANCE. ALL WHILE THE 80-85% CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST 1 INCHES
OF RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL-ROGERS/KY-80 CORRIDOR INCLUDING
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN IS NOW DOWN TO 50-75%. THE LREF ENSEMBLE
CURRENTLY SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF MEETING OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL AROUND 10-25% ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL-ROGERS/KY-80
CORRIDOR.
STEADIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WHERE SHOWERS WILL
ALSO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. IN GENERAL THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE 0.75-2
INCHES OF RAINFALL, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. 6-HR FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS
OVER 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS WITH RIVERS AND STREAMS ALREADY
RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE 1-2 INCHES OF EXPECTED RAINFALL
IS ALSO OVER 48 HOURS. WHILE THERE MAY BE PONDING WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS, LARGE SCALE RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
BY SATURDAY MORNING THE LOW COMING OUT OF THE SOUTH IS MODELED TO BE
OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY, WITH ITS COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSES NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHOWERS TAPPER OFF WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT MAY LINGERER
INTO SUNDAY. AFTER THE REMNANT SHOWERS TAPER OFF SUNDAY, QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS AROUND MID-WEEK, IN THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM, FRIDAY
EVENING, HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 50S THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE
SATURDAY SEES SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, IT ALSO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES DON'T RECOVER MUCH, STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE
30S FOR HIGHS, WHICH WILL FEEL LIKE A HUGE SHOCK FROM THE LOW TO MID
60S THE DAY PRIOR. SKIES CLEAR HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
SOME RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO
MID 20S. GRADUAL WARMING OCCURS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON MONDAY, UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY, UPPER
40S ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE COOLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR
THURSDAY. AT NIGHT, UPPER 20S MONDAY NIGHT, MID TO UPPER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT, JUST BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND A TAD COLDER IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ARE DEPARTING TO THE EAST WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN
THE CENTRAL CONUS ARE BEGINNING TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ONLY
PASSING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT CURRENTLY RESULTING IN VFR
TAFS AT ISSUANCE. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD, AVERAGING 10KT OR LESS.
THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
INTO CANADA ON FRIDAY, WHILE THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS EASTERN KY TONIGHT TO EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND A TREND OF THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS INTO THE MID LEVELS AND EVENTUALLY LOWER LEVELS
FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOWER CLOUDS A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER IN THE EAST. WINDS ALOFT AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SFC WILL INCREASE, PARTICULARLY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. EARLY EVENING WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 10KT EAST OF I-75 BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KSME, THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF LLWS THREAT
BEFORE GUSTS INCREASE WITH THIS POTENTIAL LINGERING LONGEST AT
KJKL AND KSJS PERHAPS UNTIL NEAR 11Z BEFORE TURBULENT MIXING
THROUGH THE COLUMN ACTS TO NEGATE LLWS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM ABOUT 10Z ONWARD AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND SOME PREVAILING MVFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE
GENERALLY DURING THE 12Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME. WINDS MAY ALSO GUST AT
LEAST BRIEFLY TO UPWARDS OF 30KT AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVE IF THEY CAN
MIX DOWN SOME OF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT DURING
PORTIONS OF THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
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