131
FXUS63 KJKL 082222
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
522 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY.
- A WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL IS PROBABLE FROM FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FORECAST IN THE CUMBERLAND
VALLEY, WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY, AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
- A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM THE GULF TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
QUEBEC AND WAS CONTINUING TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF EASTERN KY.
ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CANADA INTO THE ROCKIES TO MUCH OF THE
PLAINS/CENTRAL CONUS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WERE MOVING THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WITH ONE NEARING THE MID MS VALLEY AT THIS TIME, A SECOND
EXTENDED FROM THE NE VICINITY INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE AREA, A
THIRD EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN HUDSON BAY VICINITY TO WESTERN
ONTARIO, AND YET ANOTHER EXTENDED FROM ALBERTA TO WEST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN KY AT THIS TIME IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING RIDGING AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE,
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROACHING THE MID MS VALLEY.
THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDED INTO THE TN
VALLEY TO GA.
TONIGHT, THE MOST NORTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS SECTIONS OF ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY WHILE
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEARING THE MID MS VALLEY AND THE ONE
CURRENTLY TO ITS WEST IN THE PLAINS SHOULD MORE OR LESS
MERGE/PHASE AND NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, MEANWHILE,
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALSO PROGRESS EAST WITH AN AXIS FROM
NEAR SASKATCHEWAN TO WY TO THE NM VICINITY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
INITIAL SFC LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE MID MS VALLEY VICINITY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO MI THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN KY TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO SC
COAST WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NEARING THE CONFLUENCE OF THE
MS AND OH RIVERS TO EASTERN SECTIONS OF TX. ON FRIDAY, THE SFC LOW
SHOULD TRACK FROM MI ACROSS SECTIONS OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY EVENING WHILE THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHEAST AND NEARS EASTERN KY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. FURTHER WEST WITHIN THE TROUGH AND
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO APPROACH
THE MS VALLEY/EASTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER SFC
WAVE THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN SECTIONS OF TX/ARKLATEX REGION TO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE FRONT THAT WILL HAVE MOVED INTO EASTERN KY
STALLING AND LIKELY NUDGING TO THE NORTH A BIT.
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST AND THE COLD FRONT BEINGS TO APPROACH. A LLJ ON
THE ORDER OF ROUGHLY 50 TO 60KT PER THE 12Z HREF IS EXPECTED TO
WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT
WITH THE STRONGEST OF WINDS AT THAT LEVEL REMAINING NORTHWEST OF
EASTERN KY. NEVERTHELESS, 850 MB WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 50 TO
60 KT OVER ASTERN KY AS DAWN APPROACHES AND THIS SHIFTS EASTER
DURING THE MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, CONVECTION, MAINLY SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AND THESE MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM ON FRIDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST
HOURLY WIND GUSTS WERE INCREASED FROM THE NBM DETERMINISTIC GUSTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT A BIT THOUGH PEAK GUSTS COULD BE IN EXCESS OF
30KT. LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL REACH MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING, WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL AND A LOCALLY
STRONGER WIND GUST COULD OCCUR IF ANY ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPS
GENERALLY WHERE SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 2. AS THE FRONT
NEARS TOWARD MIDDAY TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW END MUCAPE VALUES
AROUND 100 J/KG OR A BIT MORE IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE AREA PER RECENT CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP
AND HRRR. SOME ADDITIONAL RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD OCCUR WITH
THAT, BUT SHEAR WILL BE DECREASING BY THEN SO IF ANY ACTIVITY
OCCURS THERE IT COULD CONTAIN THUNDER. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
GUSTINESS ON FRIDAY WAS MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE COLUMN TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, WITH PW VALUES INCREASING FROM ROUGHLY THE 0.6 INCH
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR 0.9 INCH WEST RANGE THIS EVENING TO ABOUT 0.8
INCHES SOUTHEAST TO NEAR 1.3 INCHES WEST THROUGH AROUND DAWN ON
FRIDAY MORNING PER 12Z HREF MEAN WITH THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING TO AFTERNOON, WITH SOME DRYING LATER IN THE DAY IN THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT/FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PER
12Z HREF MEANS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, WITH AN
UPTICK THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH AS THE NEXT SFC WAVE
NEARS THE LOWER OH VALLEY THE BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD STALL DURING
THE EVENING MAY BEGIN TO NUDGE BACK TO THE NORTH A BIT LATE. THE
DURATION OF RAINFALL WITH THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND AS THE
FRONT NEARS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT AND IT IS PROBABLE
FOR A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/RAIN DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE HEAVIEST IN THE
SOUTH AND LIGHTEST IN THE NORTH AND THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE CUMBERLAND RIVER VALLEY, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS EVENT THAT BEGINS IN THE NEAR TERM AND LINGERS INTO
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SINCE DECEMBER 18TH TO 19TH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WARMER FOR RIDGETOP LOCATIONS COMPARED
TO LAST NIGHT WHILE EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE LATE AREAWIDE. THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUD COVER AND A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STARTING FRIDAY EVENING, WILL FEATURE A COLD
FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST, PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AN AREA ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT, AND ANY
CONVECTIVE LINE APPROACHES OR ENTERS EASTERN KENTUCKY, A LOT OF THE
LIMITED ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY, FROM THE DAY, WILL HAVE TAPERED OFF.
THIS COLD FRONT, FROM AN EXITING SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND, WILL STALL OUT OVER SE KENTUCKY
NEAR THE APPALACHIANS. ADDITIONALLY, A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE LEE SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
US, AND EJECT EAST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND EVENTUALLY THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS STALLED COLD
FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS HAPPENS, WHILE DEW POINTS REMAINS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) IS
FORECASTED AROUND 1.25 INCHES WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LREF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED DOWN
SOME ACROSS THE NORTH. PREVIOUS CHANCES OF SEEING 1 INCH OF RAINFALL
NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WAS AROUND 40-50%. THOSE CHANCES HAVE NOW
DROPPED TO A 10-20% CHANCE. A 20-50% CHANCE OF SEEING 1 INCH SOUTH
OF I-64 BUT NORTH OF THE HAL-ROGERS/KY-80 CORRIDOR IS DOWN FROM A 50-
80% CHANCE. ALL WHILE THE 80-85% CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST 1 INCHES
OF RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL-ROGERS/KY-80 CORRIDOR INCLUDING
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN IS NOW DOWN TO 50-75%. THE LREF ENSEMBLE
CURRENTLY SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF MEETING OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL AROUND 10-25% ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL-ROGERS/KY-80
CORRIDOR.
STEADIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WHERE SHOWERS WILL
ALSO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. IN GENERAL THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE 0.75-2
INCHES OF RAINFALL, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. 6-HR FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS
OVER 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS WITH RIVERS AND STREAMS ALREADY
RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE 1-2 INCHES OF EXPECTED RAINFALL
IS ALSO OVER 48 HOURS. WHILE THERE MAY BE PONDING WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS, LARGE SCALE RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
BY SATURDAY MORNING THE LOW COMING OUT OF THE SOUTH IS MODELED TO BE
OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY, WITH ITS COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSES NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHOWERS TAPPER OFF WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT MAY LINGERER
INTO SUNDAY. AFTER THE REMNANT SHOWERS TAPER OFF SUNDAY, QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS AROUND MID-WEEK, IN THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM, FRIDAY
EVENING, HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 50S THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE
SATURDAY SEES SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, IT ALSO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES DON'T RECOVER MUCH, STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE
30S FOR HIGHS, WHICH WILL FEEL LIKE A HUGE SHOCK FROM THE LOW TO MID
60S THE DAY PRIOR. SKIES CLEAR HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
SOME RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO
MID 20S. GRADUAL WARMING OCCURS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON MONDAY, UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY, UPPER
40S ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE COOLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR
THURSDAY. AT NIGHT, UPPER 20S MONDAY NIGHT, MID TO UPPER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT, JUST BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND A TAD COLDER IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ARE DEPARTING TO THE EAST WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN
THE CENTRAL CONUS ARE BEGINNING TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ONLY
PASSING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT CURRENTLY RESULTING IN VFR
TAFS AT ISSUANCE. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD, AVERAGING 10KT OR LESS.
THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
INTO CANADA ON FRIDAY, WHILE THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS EASTERN KY TONIGHT TO EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND A TREND OF THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS INTO THE MID LEVELS AND EVENTUALLY LOWER LEVELS
FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOWER CLOUDS A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER IN THE EAST. WINDS ALOFT AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SFC WILL INCREASE, PARTICULARLY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. EARLY EVENING WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 10KT EAST OF I-75 BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KSME, THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF LLWS THREAT
BEFORE GUSTS INCREASE WITH THIS POTENTIAL LINGERING LONGEST AT
KJKL AND KSJS PERHAPS UNTIL NEAR 11Z BEFORE TURBULENT MIXING
THROUGH THE COLUMN ACTS TO NEGATE LLWS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM ABOUT 10Z ONWARD AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND SOME PREVAILING MVFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE
GENERALLY DURING THE 12Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME. WINDS MAY ALSO GUST AT
LEAST BRIEFLY TO UPWARDS OF 30KT AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVE IF THEY CAN
MIX DOWN SOME OF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT DURING
PORTIONS OF THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page