897
FXUS63 KJKL 090236
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
936 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY.
- A WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 2.00 INCH RAINFALL IS PROBABLE FROM FRIDAY
TO SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FORECAST IN THE CUMBERLAND
VALLEY, WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY, AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
- A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
CONTINUED TO UPDATE/MODIFY NEAR-TERM HOURLY TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WIDE DISPARITY IN OBSERVATIONS DEPENDING ON
WHICH SIDE OF THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED WARM FRONT ONE RESIDES. TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT, VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE AS LOW AS THE
MID-40S, WHILE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE
WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. MADE SOME ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM
MODIFICATIONS IN SKY GRIDS AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SOME NEAR TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO HOURLY GRIDS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT HAD
COOLED OFF A BIT QUICKER INITIALLY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
A MINOR DOWNWARD TREND OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MIN T WAS MADE
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM THE GULF TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
QUEBEC AND WAS CONTINUING TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF EASTERN KY.
ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CANADA INTO THE ROCKIES TO MUCH OF THE
PLAINS/CENTRAL CONUS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WERE MOVING THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WITH ONE NEARING THE MID MS VALLEY AT THIS TIME, A SECOND
EXTENDED FROM THE NE VICINITY INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE AREA, A
THIRD EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN HUDSON BAY VICINITY TO WESTERN
ONTARIO, AND YET ANOTHER EXTENDED FROM ALBERTA TO WEST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN KY AT THIS TIME IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING RIDGING AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE,
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROACHING THE MID MS VALLEY.
THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDED INTO THE TN
VALLEY TO GA.
TONIGHT, THE MOST NORTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS SECTIONS OF ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY WHILE
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEARING THE MID MS VALLEY AND THE ONE
CURRENTLY TO ITS WEST IN THE PLAINS SHOULD MORE OR LESS
MERGE/PHASE AND NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, MEANWHILE,
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALSO PROGRESS EAST WITH AN AXIS FROM
NEAR SASKATCHEWAN TO WY TO THE NM VICINITY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
INITIAL SFC LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE MID MS VALLEY VICINITY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO MI THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN KY TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO SC
COAST WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NEARING THE CONFLUENCE OF THE
MS AND OH RIVERS TO EASTERN SECTIONS OF TX. ON FRIDAY, THE SFC LOW
SHOULD TRACK FROM MI ACROSS SECTIONS OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY EVENING WHILE THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHEAST AND NEARS EASTERN KY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. FURTHER WEST WITHIN THE TROUGH AND
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO APPROACH
THE MS VALLEY/EASTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER SFC
WAVE THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN SECTIONS OF TX/ARKLATEX REGION TO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE FRONT THAT WILL HAVE MOVED INTO EASTERN KY
STALLING AND LIKELY NUDGING TO THE NORTH A BIT.
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST AND THE COLD FRONT BEINGS TO APPROACH. A LLJ ON
THE ORDER OF ROUGHLY 50 TO 60KT PER THE 12Z HREF IS EXPECTED TO
WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT
WITH THE STRONGEST OF WINDS AT THAT LEVEL REMAINING NORTHWEST OF
EASTERN KY. NEVERTHELESS, 850 MB WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 50 TO
60 KT OVER ASTERN KY AS DAWN APPROACHES AND THIS SHIFTS EASTER
DURING THE MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, CONVECTION, MAINLY SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AND THESE MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM ON FRIDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST
HOURLY WIND GUSTS WERE INCREASED FROM THE NBM DETERMINISTIC GUSTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT A BIT THOUGH PEAK GUSTS COULD BE IN EXCESS OF
30KT. LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL REACH MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING, WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL AND A LOCALLY
STRONGER WIND GUST COULD OCCUR IF ANY ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPS
GENERALLY WHERE SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 2. AS THE FRONT
NEARS TOWARD MIDDAY TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW END MUCAPE VALUES
AROUND 100 J/KG OR A BIT MORE IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE AREA PER RECENT CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP
AND HRRR. SOME ADDITIONAL RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD OCCUR WITH
THAT, BUT SHEAR WILL BE DECREASING BY THEN SO IF ANY ACTIVITY
OCCURS THERE IT COULD CONTAIN THUNDER. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
GUSTINESS ON FRIDAY WAS MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE COLUMN TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, WITH PW VALUES INCREASING FROM ROUGHLY THE 0.6 INCH
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR 0.9 INCH WEST RANGE THIS EVENING TO ABOUT 0.8
INCHES SOUTHEAST TO NEAR 1.3 INCHES WEST THROUGH AROUND DAWN ON
FRIDAY MORNING PER 12Z HREF MEAN WITH THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING TO AFTERNOON, WITH SOME DRYING LATER IN THE DAY IN THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT/FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PER
12Z HREF MEANS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, WITH AN
UPTICK THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH AS THE NEXT SFC WAVE
NEARS THE LOWER OH VALLEY THE BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD STALL DURING
THE EVENING MAY BEGIN TO NUDGE BACK TO THE NORTH A BIT LATE. THE
DURATION OF RAINFALL WITH THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND AS THE
FRONT NEARS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT AND IT IS PROBABLE
FOR A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/RAIN DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE HEAVIEST IN THE
SOUTH AND LIGHTEST IN THE NORTH AND THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE CUMBERLAND RIVER VALLEY, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS EVENT THAT BEGINS IN THE NEAR TERM AND LINGERS INTO
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SINCE DECEMBER 18TH TO 19TH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WARMER FOR RIDGETOP LOCATIONS COMPARED
TO LAST NIGHT WHILE EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE LATE AREAWIDE. THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUD COVER AND A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 613 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
WHEN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD OPENS ON SATURDAY MORNING, FRIDAY
EVENING'S STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING NE THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT PHASES WITH A DEEPER
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS SUCH, ONGOING RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE FROPA PROVIDES
A BREAK IN THE POPS OVERNIGHT. BY SUNDAY, THE PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO YIELD DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE
REGION, AND A LOBE OF VORTICITY SWINGING THROUGH THE RESULTANT CAA
REGIME IS POISED TO DRAG A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THAT BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, AND IT
WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH IT. THE FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE IN THIS TIME FRAME, ALLOWING THE AIRMASS
TO MODERATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM'S MID- WEEK ARRIVAL. THEREFORE,
WHILE THE WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD REMAINS QUITE
ACTIVE, POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLDER AIRMASS WILL KEEP
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST QUIETER FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.
THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY CONTINUE TO BE RESOLVED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE AREAS WILL RETAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
COMPONENTS, AND THUS BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT, FOR A LONGER PERIOD
OF TIME. SATURDAY MORNING'S WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THESE AREAS
FIRST, AND THE SYSTEM'S TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THESE AREAS
LAST ON SATURDAY EVENING. LREF MEAN PWAT VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1-1.25
INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 60S WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS MEANS THAT RAINFALL
EMBEDDED OR TRAINING CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
0.25 INCHES IN THE BLUEGRASS TO 0.75 INCHES ON THE SOUTHERN-FACING
SLOPES OF FAR SE KY. SATURDAY'S RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BRING
SYSTEM TOTAL QPF TO ABOUT 0.5 INCHES IN THE BLUEGRASS, APPROXIMATELY
1 INCH IN THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY CORRIDOR, AND GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES
IN LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. OVER THE LAST FEW
MODEL CYCLES, THERE ACTUALLY HAS BEEN A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN
BOTH THE PROBABILISTIC AND DETERMINISTIC STORM TOTAL QPF GUIDANCE.
GREATER THAN 40% PROBABILITIES OF 1+ INCH OF RAIN ARE NOW CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. IF THAT THRESHOLD IS
INCREASED TO 2 INCHES, PROBABILITIES DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH
25% CONTOURS RELEGATED TO COUNTIES BORDERING TN AND VA. LIKEWISE,
DETERMINISTIC TOTALS CLOSER TO 2 INCHES ARE NOW ONLY FORECAST IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF BELL AND HARLAN COUNTIES.
WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND. DOWNSTREAM RIVER GAUGES, LIKE THE CUMBERLAND
RIVER AT WILLIAMSBURG AND THE KENTUCKY RIVER AT HEIDELBERG AND
RAVENNA, MAY EXPERIENCE RISES TOWARDS ACTION STAGE, BUT THANKS TO
THE ANTECEDENT DRYNESS, AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE GENERALLY
ENTERING THIS EVENT WITH BELOW-NORMAL FLOW. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE
FLOOD POTENTIAL. LIKEWISE, THE GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB MOST
OF THE PREDECESSOR RAIN ON FRIDAY. IF THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST
OUTPERFORMS EXPECTATIONS OR IF STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED CONVECTION
MATERIALIZES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE EVENT ON SATURDAY,
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HIGH WATER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WPC HAS
ACCORDINGLY OUTLINED A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/4) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK ON SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTHEAST OF
THE KY-80/HAL ROGERS PARKWAY CORRIDOR. WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE
EYE ON FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THESE AREAS, WHERE NUISANCE-TYPE
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN LOCALES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
EVENING. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT THE COMMONWEALTH WINDS UP IN A DRY
SLOT OF THE PARENT SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WOULD REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF THERMAL INSULATION FROM ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THAT LOW OCCLUDES/RETROGRADES,
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME BLUSTERY. BOTH BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SOUNDINGS AND PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE IDEA SUGGEST THAT GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. UPPER ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENTS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME, BUT
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IS MEAGER. THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES (30-
40%) FOR ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES AT A 10:1 RATIO ARE
IN LOCATIONS EAST OF I-75. HOWEVER, RATIOS ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH
DRIER THAN THIS (CLOSER TO 17:1), AND THE ANTECEDENT WARMTH FAVORS
MELTING. THUS, THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW WILL COME IN
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS, WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING GENERAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.
A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS FOR A FEW DAYS. A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL
NAVIGATE THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT, BUT THEIR IMPACTS WILL BE
LIMITED TO PASSING CLOUDS DUE TO THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE COLUMN. THESE SYNOPTICS TRANSLATE TO
COOLER, DRIER, AND QUIETER SENSIBLE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
EXPECT RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD MINTS BELOW FREEZING. MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES
AND ANTICYCLONIC RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO MODERATE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. FORECAST MAXTS STEP FROM THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON
MONDAY TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A DEEPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE REGION. THE FORECAST GRIDS CURRENTLY REFLECT A
CHANGEOVER FROM LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY TO SNOW BEHIND
THAT SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE
DETAILS REGARDING TRANSITION TIMING OR ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. BANDS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE WORKING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WHILE
THERE WERE ALREADY A FEW LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES IN THE WEST AND
UPSTREAM. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND INTO CANADA ON FRIDAY, AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS EASTERN KY TONIGHT TO EARLY ON FRIDAY WITH
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO NEAR ON FRIDAY. CONTINUED AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND A TREND OF THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LOWER CLOUDS A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER IN THE EAST.
WINDS ALOFT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SFC WILL INCREASE,
THROUGH 12Z. SUSTAINED WINDS INITIALLY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 10KT EAST OF I-75, BEFORE GRADUALLY AS THE NIGH
PROGRESSES. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MORE OPEN TERRAIN
SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS KSME, THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF
LLWS THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SFC GUSTS. AMONG THE TAF SITES
THIS THREAT LINGERS AT KJKL AND KSJS PERHAPS UNTIL NEARLY 11Z. AS
SURFACE GUSTS INCREASE, TURBULENT MIXING THROUGH THE COLUMN ACTS
TO NEGATE LLWS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER ABOUT 10Z ONWARD, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD. REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE SHOWERS
AND A PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR IS ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR MOST
DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. WINDS MAY ALSO GUST AT
LEAST BRIEFLY TO UPWARDS OF 30KT AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVE IF THEY CAN
MIX DOWN SOME OF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT WITH THIS
TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN ABOUT 12Z AND 18Z.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET TRANSITIONING OUT OF THE AREA BY 18Z, WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LESS GUSTY AREAWIDE THEREAFTER WHILE SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST IN THE NORTHER PORTION OF THE AREA.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...JP
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