989
FXUS63 KJKL 090913
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
413 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY.
- A WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 2.00 INCH RAINFALL IS PROBABLE THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FORECAST IN THE CUMBERLAND
VALLEY, WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON TODAY, AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
- A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVER
RIDGETOPS AND ACROSS OPEN TERRAIN WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
MIX OVERNIGHT. THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE EAST ARE
CERTAINLY COLDER IN THE MID 40S, BUT THAT IS STILL 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL NIGHTTIME LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VARIABLE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.
MEANWHILE, THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MULTIPLE LINES OF
CONVECTION UPSTREAM FROM SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DOWN INTO THE MID AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE WEATHER MAPS REVEAL THAT THIS
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM AN ~992 MB LOW NORTH OF MILWAUKEE, WI. LOOKING ALOFT TO 500
HPA, A RIDGE AXIS IS MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHILE
TROUGHING (COMPOSED OF A SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY COMPONENT) IS AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS. A ROBUST SHORTWAVE IS EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH.
THAT LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING, TAKING THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WITH IT AND DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
KENTUCKY COALFIELDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY GUSTY AS THE LEADING PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS APPROACH
THIS MORNING (REACHING LAKE CUMBERLAND AND THE BLUEGRASS AFTER 6
AM AND FAR EASTERN PIKE COUNTY TOWARD NOON). THE STRONGEST CORE OF
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT JET (70+ KNOTS AT 850 HPA) SHOULD STAY
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA; HOWEVER, WINDS ALOFT AT THAT LEVEL
WILL STILL BE 50 TO 65 KNOTS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
FORTUNATELY, LOW-LEVEL STABILITY SHOULD LIMIT MOST OF THIS
MOMENTUM FROM REACHING THE SURFACE, WITH PEAK RAP BUFKIT MIXED
LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER GENERALLY 25 TO 30 KTS, EXCEPT BRIEFLY
APPROACHING 35 KTS IN THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES JUST BEFORE THE
PREFRONTAL SHOWER BANDS ARRIVE AND FURTHER STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT. NAM/RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE EASILY DEPICTING
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER WITH STRONGER CONVECTION TODAY,
BUT IN MOST CASES THE LOW-LEVELS LOOK TO BE TOO STABLE FOR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION EXCEPT PERHAPS BRIEFLY RIGHT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
BRIEFLY STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE OPEN TERRAIN WEST OF I-75. ADDITIONALLY, RAINFALL
COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES, THOUGH ANY HYDRO CONCERNS SHOULD
BE MITIGATED BY ANTECEDENT DRIER SOILS AND LOW STREAMFLOWS. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM UNDER 0.25 INCH NORTH OF I-64 TO 0.75 INCHES OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS (PINE MOUNTAIN
SOUTHEASTWARD). EVEN THE HREF ENSEMBLE MAX, A REASONABLY HIGH-END
SOLUTION, STILL ONLY SHOWS 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING -- VERY MANAGEABLE.
SHOWERS AND ANY GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
TEMPORARILY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE,
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PHASE AND AMPLIFY
OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW NEAR/OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LINGERING
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM TEXAS TO WESTERN NEW YORK ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO BRIEFLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY PUSHING EASTWARD
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SECOND LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL, BUT WITH
LOWER OVERALL THUNDER RISK. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SECOND SYSTEM RANGE FROM UNDER 0.25 NORTH OF I-64 TO AROUND 1 INCH
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
(BELL/HARLAN). EVEN UNDER HIGH-END SCENARIOS, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCH OVER THE HARDEST HIT PARTS OF THOSE
COUNTIES, SO THE OVERALL FLOODING CONCERN REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER, LOOK FOR ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT WILL BE BLUSTERY DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE AND POSSIBLY NEARING 40 MPH
OVER PORTIONS OF THE BLUEGRASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, RANGING IN THE MID 60S TODAY, THEN DIPPING
BACK INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, PEAKING IN THE MID/UPPER
50S NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 613 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
WHEN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD OPENS ON SATURDAY MORNING, FRIDAY
EVENING'S STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING NE THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT PHASES WITH A DEEPER
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS SUCH, ONGOING RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE FROPA PROVIDES
A BREAK IN THE POPS OVERNIGHT. BY SUNDAY, THE PHASING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO YIELD DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE
REGION, AND A LOBE OF VORTICITY SWINGING THROUGH THE RESULTANT CAA
REGIME IS POISED TO DRAG A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THAT BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, AND IT
WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH IT. THE FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE IN THIS TIME FRAME, ALLOWING THE AIRMASS
TO MODERATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM'S MID- WEEK ARRIVAL. THEREFORE,
WHILE THE WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD REMAINS QUITE
ACTIVE, POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLDER AIRMASS WILL KEEP
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST QUIETER FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.
THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY CONTINUE TO BE RESOLVED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE AREAS WILL RETAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
COMPONENTS, AND THUS BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT, FOR A LONGER PERIOD
OF TIME. SATURDAY MORNING'S WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THESE AREAS
FIRST, AND THE SYSTEM'S TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THESE AREAS
LAST ON SATURDAY EVENING. LREF MEAN PWAT VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1-1.25
INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 60S WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS MEANS THAT RAINFALL
EMBEDDED OR TRAINING CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
0.25 INCHES IN THE BLUEGRASS TO 0.75 INCHES ON THE SOUTHERN-FACING
SLOPES OF FAR SE KY. SATURDAY'S RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BRING
SYSTEM TOTAL QPF TO ABOUT 0.5 INCHES IN THE BLUEGRASS, APPROXIMATELY
1 INCH IN THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY CORRIDOR, AND GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES
IN LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. OVER THE LAST FEW
MODEL CYCLES, THERE ACTUALLY HAS BEEN A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN
BOTH THE PROBABILISTIC AND DETERMINISTIC STORM TOTAL QPF GUIDANCE.
GREATER THAN 40% PROBABILITIES OF 1+ INCH OF RAIN ARE NOW CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. IF THAT THRESHOLD IS
INCREASED TO 2 INCHES, PROBABILITIES DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH
25% CONTOURS RELEGATED TO COUNTIES BORDERING TN AND VA. LIKEWISE,
DETERMINISTIC TOTALS CLOSER TO 2 INCHES ARE NOW ONLY FORECAST IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF BELL AND HARLAN COUNTIES.
WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND. DOWNSTREAM RIVER GAUGES, LIKE THE CUMBERLAND
RIVER AT WILLIAMSBURG AND THE KENTUCKY RIVER AT HEIDELBERG AND
RAVENNA, MAY EXPERIENCE RISES TOWARDS ACTION STAGE, BUT THANKS TO
THE ANTECEDENT DRYNESS, AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE GENERALLY
ENTERING THIS EVENT WITH BELOW-NORMAL FLOW. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE
FLOOD POTENTIAL. LIKEWISE, THE GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB MOST
OF THE PREDECESSOR RAIN ON FRIDAY. IF THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST
OUTPERFORMS EXPECTATIONS OR IF STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED CONVECTION
MATERIALIZES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE EVENT ON SATURDAY,
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HIGH WATER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WPC HAS
ACCORDINGLY OUTLINED A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/4) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK ON SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTHEAST OF
THE KY-80/HAL ROGERS PARKWAY CORRIDOR. WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE
EYE ON FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THESE AREAS, WHERE NUISANCE-TYPE
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN LOCALES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
EVENING. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT THE COMMONWEALTH WINDS UP IN A DRY
SLOT OF THE PARENT SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WOULD REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF THERMAL INSULATION FROM ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THAT LOW OCCLUDES/RETROGRADES,
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME BLUSTERY. BOTH BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SOUNDINGS AND PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE IDEA SUGGEST THAT GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. UPPER ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENTS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME, BUT
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IS MEAGER. THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES (30-
40%) FOR ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES AT A 10:1 RATIO ARE
IN LOCATIONS EAST OF I-75. HOWEVER, RATIOS ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH
DRIER THAN THIS (CLOSER TO 17:1), AND THE ANTECEDENT WARMTH FAVORS
MELTING. THUS, THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW WILL COME IN
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS, WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING GENERAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.
A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS FOR A FEW DAYS. A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL
NAVIGATE THROUGH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT, BUT THEIR IMPACTS WILL BE
LIMITED TO PASSING CLOUDS DUE TO THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE COLUMN. THESE SYNOPTICS TRANSLATE TO
COOLER, DRIER, AND QUIETER SENSIBLE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
EXPECT RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD MINTS BELOW FREEZING. MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES
AND ANTICYCLONIC RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO MODERATE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. FORECAST MAXTS STEP FROM THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON
MONDAY TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A DEEPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE REGION. THE FORECAST GRIDS CURRENTLY REFLECT A
CHANGEOVER FROM LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY TO SNOW BEHIND
THAT SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE
DETAILS REGARDING TRANSITION TIMING OR ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES IN A ROUGHLY NORTH-SOUTH FASHION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY FROM NEAR KSYM TO JUST WEST OF
KJKL TO BETWEEN K1A6 AND KLOZ. THIS BOUNDARY IS THE LEADING
EASTERN EDGE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS PROVIDING FOR LLWS WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, LOWERING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD 10Z-12Z FOR
WESTERN TERMINALS, MOVING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOWER CLOUDS A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER IN
THE EAST. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS WILL COME THE INCREASING
CHANCE FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE AND MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS (TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KTS) JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
NEGATING THE LLWS WIND THREAT, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 11Z AND 17Z.
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND A PERIOD OF
PREVAILING MVFR IS ALSO ANTICIPATED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET TRANSITIONING OUT OF THE AREA BY 18Z,
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LESS GUSTY AREAWIDE THEREAFTER WHILE SHIFTING
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...CMC
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