843
FXUS63 KJKL 092155
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
455 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO
SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN OR SHOWERS IS FORECAST FROM TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS POTENTIALLY NEARING AN INCH
FORECAST IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
- A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIRMASS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE TO END THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS SECTIONS
OF THE GULF AND ALSO NORTH EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED IN THE PACIFIC WITH ITS AXIS
EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO BC. IN BETWEEN, UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CANADA INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TO NM. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
THE HUDSON BAY VICINITY TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE UPPER
OH VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKING INTO ONTARIO EXTENDED INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY TO SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX
REGION. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED INTO THE CWA AT THIS TIME AND WAS
NEARING THE I-64 CORRIDOR IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. DEEPER
MOISTURE WAS CURRENTLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. PW
WAS ANALYZED IN THE 1 TO 1.2 INCH RANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH
VALUES OF 0.6 INCHES TO 1 INCH FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOSTLY DIMINISHED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AS WELL. CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE MORE SOUTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE REGION, BUT THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN THE LOW
AND MID CLOUDS FURTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WHERE THE COLUMN
IS DRIER.
MEANWHILE WITHIN THE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE CENTRAL
CONUS TO NM, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS SECTIONS OF
TX/SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED IN THE
SOUTHWEST KS TO TX AND OK PANHANDLES VICINITY. AS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CONUS AND CANADA AND APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY
TONIGHT, A SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE MOVE INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WITH
THE BOUNDARY THAT DROPS WELL INTO EASTERN KY THROUGH THIS EVENING
LIFTING BACK NORTH LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN TX TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT WEAKENS TO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE
FURTHER NORTH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO NORTHER MS VALLEY AND BEGINS TO APPROACH THE GREAT
LAKES. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH LOWER OH
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATER
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER
LOW AND ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION TO END THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LOW WORKS INTO AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TRACK TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATES FIRST COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A SECONDARY FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD CROSS EASTERN KY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE -6C TO -10C RANGE THEN WHILE A SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE/AND ADDITIONAL APPROACHES FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATES
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LEADS TO MOISTURE INCREASING/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. 12 HREF MEAN HAS PW
VALUES FALLING BELOW ABOUT 0.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST LATER IN
THE EVENING WHILE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO RANGE TO AROUND 0.9 INCHES
NEAR THE VA BORDER. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESS, PW PER THE 12Z HREF
SHOULD CLIMB TO ROUGHLY THE 1 TO 1.15 INCH RANGE THROUGH AROUND
DAWN ON SATURDAY, REMAIN NEAR THOSE LEVELS UNTIL SATURDAY MIDDAY
OR EARLY AFTER BEFORE TAPERING OFF BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT.
ACCORDINGLY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY, DIMINISHING IN ALL AREAS BY EVENING AS THE FIRST FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HIGHEST NEARER TO THE VA
BORDER AND LIGHTEST WITH THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS NEARER TO THE I-64
CORRIDOR.
AS THE SECONDARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES, A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN, OR FLURRIES IN THE
NORTH AND EAST ARE ANTICIPATED LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME,
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO END THE
WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AREAWIDE, BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP
SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS SATURDAY EVENING WITH A DEEP ~520 DAM
LOW NEAR/OVER WISCONSIN WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL BE
DEPARTING OVER THE APPALACHIANS WHILE ITS SURFACE LOW SPINS OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
FROM THE LOW TO ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE OHIO RIVER AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BACK INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
COLDER AIR WILL RUSH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE; LREF MEAN 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
FALL TO -11 TO -12C BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATIVE OF AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE 250 HPA POLAR JET BRIEFLY DIPS TO OUR SOUTH. WITH
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS, SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY
WOULD LIKELY BE THE GREATEST CONCERN. WARM PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PREVENT ANY IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATION, THOUGH SOME BRIEF
SLUSHINESS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF SNOWFALL RATES BRIEFLY EXCEED
THE PACE OF THE WARM PAVEMENT TO MELT THE SNOW. THAT ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PASSES. HEIGHTS ALOFT REBOUND SUNDAY NIGHT, SUPPORTING HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THOUGH BROADLY
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. THAT HIGH THEN SINKS SOUTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS POTENT REINFORCING VORT ENERGY SINKS OUT OF
NORTHERN CANADA, CAUSING SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND SUPPORTING A SOUTHWARD SINKING COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DISPARITY AS TO HOW INTENSE THE COLD AIR MIGHT BE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS WELL AS THE OVERALL DEPTH OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE POST-
FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW COULD FAVOR A MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE GREAT
LAKES IN AN AIR MASS COLD ENOUGH FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR A COOL AND BLUSTERY SUNDAY
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING, AND
PERHAPS EVEN A SNOW SQUALL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID 30S FOR MOST. CLEARING
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. FAIR WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR 50F OR BETTER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES RETREAT BACK TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
AT ISSUANCE TIME, SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING LOCATIONS GENERALLY NEAR
OR EAST OF A LINE FROM A KSYM TO KSME LINE. PENDING THE INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND THE DEGREE OF SATURATION, MAINLY MVFR AND SOME
IFR WAS REPORTED AT ISSUANCE TIME, WHILE THERE WERE SOME REPORTS
OF VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
STEADIER SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE FIRST 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME AT LEAST BRIEF
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS BEHIND THAT, THOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS
ALOFT ARE ALSO DECREASING. THUS COMPARED TO EARLIER, WINDS HAVE
BECOME LESS GUSTY OVERALL, AND SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 10KT OR LESS
TO START THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. HOWEVER, WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE EVENING BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z AND 01Z AND LIGHT
BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST TO FOLLOW THAT THROUGH 06Z WITH THE
BOUNDARY STALLING IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND THE BOUNDARY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. AFTER A GENERAL LULL IN RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN 22Z AND 06Z,
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN AROUND 06Z AND
AFTER, WITH THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THOSE CHANCES
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR AND SOME INSTANCES OF
IFR CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD BACK NORTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...JP
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