657
FXUS63 KJKL 092218
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
518 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO
SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN OR SHOWERS IS FORECAST FROM TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS POTENTIALLY NEARING AN INCH
FORECAST IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
- A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIRMASS, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE TO END THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS SECTIONS
OF THE GULF AND ALSO NORTH EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED IN THE PACIFIC WITH ITS AXIS
EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO BC. IN BETWEEN, UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CANADA INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TO NM. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
THE HUDSON BAY VICINITY TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE UPPER
OH VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKING INTO ONTARIO EXTENDED INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY TO SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX
REGION. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED INTO THE CWA AT THIS TIME AND WAS
NEARING THE I-64 CORRIDOR IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. DEEPER
MOISTURE WAS CURRENTLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. PW
WAS ANALYZED IN THE 1 TO 1.2 INCH RANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH
VALUES OF 0.6 INCHES TO 1 INCH FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOSTLY DIMINISHED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AS WELL. CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE MORE SOUTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE REGION, BUT THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN THE LOW
AND MID CLOUDS FURTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WHERE THE COLUMN
IS DRIER.
MEANWHILE WITHIN THE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE CENTRAL
CONUS TO NM, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS SECTIONS OF
TX/SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED IN THE
SOUTHWEST KS TO TX AND OK PANHANDLES VICINITY. AS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CONUS AND CANADA AND APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY
TONIGHT, A SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE MOVE INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WITH
THE BOUNDARY THAT DROPS WELL INTO EASTERN KY THROUGH THIS EVENING
LIFTING BACK NORTH LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN TX TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT WEAKENS TO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE
FURTHER NORTH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO NORTHER MS VALLEY AND BEGINS TO APPROACH THE GREAT
LAKES. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH LOWER OH
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATER
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER
LOW AND ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION TO END THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
LOW WORKS INTO AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TRACK TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATES FIRST COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A SECONDARY FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD CROSS EASTERN KY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE -6C TO -10C RANGE THEN WHILE A SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE/AND ADDITIONAL APPROACHES FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATES
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LEADS TO MOISTURE INCREASING/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. 12 HREF MEAN HAS PW
VALUES FALLING BELOW ABOUT 0.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST LATER IN
THE EVENING WHILE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO RANGE TO AROUND 0.9 INCHES
NEAR THE VA BORDER. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESS, PW PER THE 12Z HREF
SHOULD CLIMB TO ROUGHLY THE 1 TO 1.15 INCH RANGE THROUGH AROUND
DAWN ON SATURDAY, REMAIN NEAR THOSE LEVELS UNTIL SATURDAY MIDDAY
OR EARLY AFTER BEFORE TAPERING OFF BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT.
ACCORDINGLY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY, DIMINISHING IN ALL AREAS BY EVENING AS THE FIRST FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HIGHEST NEARER TO THE VA
BORDER AND LIGHTEST WITH THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS NEARER TO THE I-64
CORRIDOR.
AS THE SECONDARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES, A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN, OR FLURRIES IN THE
NORTH AND EAST ARE ANTICIPATED LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME,
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO END THE
WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AREAWIDE, BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP
SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 517 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
ON SUNDAY MORNING, A LOBE OF VORTICITY WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF A CLOSER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS DAY'S COLD FRONT,
TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOK SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW ON SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS, AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM RESOLVE SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS AS HIGH AS 2-4 OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
SUNDAY. MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES, BUT WARM
GROUND/PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. IN
THE STRONGEST SHOWERS, SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
SPOTTY DUSTINGS ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES, BUT DRY SNOW RATIOS
AND BLUSTERY WINDS UP TO 30MPH WILL SERVE AS OTHER LIMITING FACTORS
WHEN IT COMES TO ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER, THE SNOW-SQUALL ESQUE
NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY BEARS WATCHING, AS MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY
MATERIALIZE DUE TO BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THE FAST-MOVING
SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GREATEST IN THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO INTERESTS WITH SUNDAY
MORNING TRAVEL PLANS ON ROUTES EAST OF I-75, SUCH AS I-64, KY-15 AND
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY, ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL IMPACT-
BASED PRODUCTS LIKE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND THEN HEED THEIR
CALLS TO ACTION. ANY AM ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THE RELATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA.
BEHIND THAT BOUNDARY, A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO
THE COLUMN VIA WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A POST-FRONTAL
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE AND THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS OFF INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS FAVORS A CLEARING TREND AND SETS UP QUIETER SENSIBLE
WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT RIDGE-VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLITS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS, ALBEIT WITH SUB-
FREEZING LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
COLDER, WITH RIDGETOPS IN THE 20S AND VALLEY LOCALES IN THE TEENS.
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RECOVER TO
THE LOW TO MID 40S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEADED INTO TUESDAY, THE
HIGH PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST AS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, BUT THE FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO LOOK COOL/DRY. THIS TRANSLATES TO MODERATING MID-WEEK
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF SUBFREEZING LOWS, WITH RIDGES
CLOSER TO 30 AND VALLEYS IN THE 20S BEFORE MAXTS CLIMB TOWARDS THE
50S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THAT
FEATURE, A DECENTLY STRONG COLD FRONT, LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THIS TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
AS RAIN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR (TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50). IT WILL THEN
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW IN THE POST-FRONTAL CAA REGIME, WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S/30S ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM LOOKS MUCH LESS POTENT
THAN IT WAS WITH THE SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. MONDAY'S SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE SETTLED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES BY MIDWEEK, AND THIS SHOULD BLOCK ACCESS TO THE BETTER GULF
MOISTURE. ANY RAIN FROM THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE, BUT FORECAST GUIDANCE SIGNALS THAT THE COLDER AIRMASS
BEHIND IT COULD LINGER FOR LONGER. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL WORK TO REINFORCE/AMPLIFY THE
TROUGHING ALOFT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THEY CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RESULTANT COLD AIR, ALTHOUGH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
AT ISSUANCE TIME, SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING LOCATIONS GENERALLY NEAR
OR EAST OF A LINE FROM A KSYM TO KSME LINE. PENDING THE INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND THE DEGREE OF SATURATION, MAINLY MVFR AND SOME
IFR WAS REPORTED AT ISSUANCE TIME, WHILE THERE WERE SOME REPORTS
OF VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
STEADIER SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE FIRST 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME AT LEAST BRIEF
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS BEHIND THAT, THOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS
ALOFT ARE ALSO DECREASING. THUS COMPARED TO EARLIER, WINDS HAVE
BECOME LESS GUSTY OVERALL, AND SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 10KT OR LESS
TO START THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. HOWEVER, WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE EVENING BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z AND 01Z AND LIGHT
BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST TO FOLLOW THAT THROUGH 06Z WITH THE
BOUNDARY STALLING IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND THE BOUNDARY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. AFTER A GENERAL LULL IN RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN 22Z AND 06Z,
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN AROUND 06Z AND
AFTER, WITH THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THOSE CHANCES
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR AND SOME INSTANCES OF
IFR CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD BACK NORTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...JP
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