508
FXUS63 KJKL 100924
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
424 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS POTENTIALLY NEARING AN INCH
FORECAST IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
- A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIRMASS, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
AND EVEN A SQUALL ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
ANOTHER DAMP AND MILD MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH OF
I-64 TO THE MID 50S FAR SOUTHEAST, WHILE REGIONAL RADAR REFLECTIVITY
SHOWS SHOWERS AND AREAS OF RAIN LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF TENNESSEE.
THIS RAINFALL IS OCCURRING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WESTERN MARYLAND SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
LOUISIANA/ALABAMA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOTED JUST
NORTHEAST OF LAKE OF THE WOODS, MINNESOTA, WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO IOWA THEN EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
INTO MONTANA. LOOKING ALOFT, A 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A
POTENT VORT MAX OVER MINNESOTA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO ANOTHER POTENT
VORT LOBE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS WILL PHASE INTO A DEEP TROUGH WHICH WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN
~515 DAM LOW RIDING DOWN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY SUNDAY
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD
TO OFF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE AFTERNOON, TAKING THE WAVERING
BOUNDARY WITH IT. MEANWHILE, THE NORTHERN SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
EAST INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
PIVOTING AROUND THE NORTHERN LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THE ONGOING SHOWERS/RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THAT COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING (~BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z). BY THE TIME THE
SECOND FRONT ARRIVES, THE COLUMN SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
OR ALL SNOW. FURTHERMORE, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CONVECTIVELY
UNSTABLE LAYER BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 750 HPA AND STRONG LOW-
LEVEL FLOW (30-35 KTS @ 850 HPA) WITH THAT SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
RAP AND HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOW A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
SQUALL SWEEPING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THAT BOUNDARY. WITH
ANTECEDENT WARM GROUND CONDITIONS, LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED; HOWEVER, THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SUDDEN AND
SIGNIFICANT, BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
ONCE THAT SECOND FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE DROPPING TO BETWEEN -11 AND -14C AT 850 HPA THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE ONGOING CAA AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LESS ORGANIZED SQUALLS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTED BY THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER,
WHICH REACHES BETWEEN 2 AND 6 IN THE NAM12 AND RAP13. AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION CEASES, THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PULLS EAST OF
THE AREA, YIELDING TO RAPID HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD
AND SNOW SHOWERS, GFS BUFKIT MIXED LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES
RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KTS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-AFTERNOON.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, SHOWERS (80-100% CHANCE) WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR MOST OF TODAY, TAPERING OFF FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK INTO
THE 30S TONIGHT WITH A LIKELY LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR A HEAVIER
SQUALL REACHING THE BLUEGRASS AROUND 4 AM AND SINKING SOUTHEAST TO
THE VIRGINIA-KENTUCKY BORDER BY 8 AM. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS,
SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE TAPERING. IT WILL BE BREEZY (WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 MPH) AND MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 517 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
ON SUNDAY MORNING, A LOBE OF VORTICITY WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF A CLOSER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS DAY'S COLD FRONT,
TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOK SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW ON SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS, AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM RESOLVE SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS AS HIGH AS 2-4 OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
SUNDAY. MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES, BUT WARM
GROUND/PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. IN
THE STRONGEST SHOWERS, SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
SPOTTY DUSTINGS ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES, BUT DRY SNOW RATIOS
AND BLUSTERY WINDS UP TO 30MPH WILL SERVE AS OTHER LIMITING FACTORS
WHEN IT COMES TO ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER, THE SNOW-SQUALL ESQUE
NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY BEARS WATCHING, AS MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY
MATERIALIZE DUE TO BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THE FAST-MOVING
SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GREATEST IN THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO INTERESTS WITH SUNDAY
MORNING TRAVEL PLANS ON ROUTES EAST OF I-75, SUCH AS I-64, KY-15 AND
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY, ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL IMPACT-
BASED PRODUCTS LIKE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND THEN HEED THEIR
CALLS TO ACTION. ANY AM ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THE RELATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA.
BEHIND THAT BOUNDARY, A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO
THE COLUMN VIA WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A POST-FRONTAL
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE AND THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS OFF INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS FAVORS A CLEARING TREND AND SETS UP QUIETER SENSIBLE
WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT RIDGE-VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLITS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS, ALBEIT WITH SUB-
FREEZING LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
COLDER, WITH RIDGETOPS IN THE 20S AND VALLEY LOCALES IN THE TEENS.
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RECOVER TO
THE LOW TO MID 40S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEADED INTO TUESDAY, THE
HIGH PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST AS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, BUT THE FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO LOOK COOL/DRY. THIS TRANSLATES TO MODERATING MID-WEEK
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF SUBFREEZING LOWS, WITH RIDGES
CLOSER TO 30 AND VALLEYS IN THE 20S BEFORE MAXTS CLIMB TOWARDS THE
50S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THAT
FEATURE, A DECENTLY STRONG COLD FRONT, LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THIS TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
AS RAIN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR (TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50). IT WILL THEN
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW IN THE POST-FRONTAL CAA REGIME, WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S/30S ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM LOOKS MUCH LESS POTENT
THAN IT WAS WITH THE SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. MONDAY'S SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE SETTLED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES BY MIDWEEK, AND THIS SHOULD BLOCK ACCESS TO THE BETTER GULF
MOISTURE. ANY RAIN FROM THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE, BUT FORECAST GUIDANCE SIGNALS THAT THE COLDER AIRMASS
BEHIND IT COULD LINGER FOR LONGER. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL WORK TO REINFORCE/AMPLIFY THE
TROUGHING ALOFT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THEY CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RESULTANT COLD AIR, ALTHOUGH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FIRST IN FOG ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY, MAINLY ALONG AND/OR SOUTH OF A KSME TO KJKL
TO KSJS LINE, FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING MAINLY BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z AS
A FRONTAL WAVE TRACK NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE DAYTIME PROGRESSES SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
15Z AND 18Z, BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS OCCUR AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH TRAVERSES
THE AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST
DURING AND AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEGINNING ~21Z SATURDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...CMC
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