373
FXUS63 KJKL 102110
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
410 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN
KENTUCKY INTO THIS EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS,
POTENTIALLY NEARING AN INCH, FOUND IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
- A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIRMASS, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
AND EVEN A SQUALL ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS INITIAL COLD FRONT
HAS MOVED EAST OF KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS LEFT
BEHIND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
INBOUND FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING TO KICK OFF MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEST TO EAST INTO THE EVENING.
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THROUGH THE
AREA. MEANWHILE, AMID SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH - MOST
PLACES, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, AS WELL.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEP CLOSED LOW TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES PHASING WITH
ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM TONIGHT AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM SETTLES
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY DAWN. THIS WILL PUSH SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE STATE AS WELL AS A CORE OF COLD 850
TEMPERATURES AND AN IMPRESSIVE MASS OF MID LEVEL ENERGY. BY 18Z
SUNDAY THE 5H TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PLOWING EAST OF KENTUCKY TAKING
THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND ENERGY ALONG WITH IT. HEIGHTS RISE IN ITS
WAKE WITH MODERATING 850 TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AREA INTO THE
EVENING AND A BENIGN OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALOFT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE SMALL SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS SUPPORTED USING THE NBM AS THE
STARTING POINT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
TO INCLUDE MORE HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS GUIDANCE TO POPS TONIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A DAMP START TO THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASINGLY BRISK WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT BRINGS WITH IT ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEALTHY SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LULL LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
THIRD AND FINAL FRONT PASSING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AN AIR MASS COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PCPN TO SNOW AS IT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE FAIRLY HIGH
FOR THIS PASSAGE AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING - PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY
THE POCKET OF COLDER AIR FROM JUST OFF THE SFC TO 850H TARGETING
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION CAMS SHOW VARIOUS SIGNS
OF MORE ROBUST SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS. ACCORDINGLY, HAVE LEANED INTO IT
AND KEPT POPS AND QPF MORE SUBSTANTIAL THAN THE NBM. WILL ALSO BE
ISSUING AN SPS ADDRESSING THE LOW VISIBILITY, BRIEF ACCUMULATIONS,
AND BLUSTERY RETURN TO WINTER CONCERNS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINGS DO QUIET DOWN SUNDAY EVENING WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING THAT
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FROM THESE SHOWERS
CONSIDERING THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE EVENT,
THOUGH SOME SLICK SPOTS MAY SHOW UP ON ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT PRIMARILY CONSISTED OF
BEEFING UP POPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR MORE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER
AND SQUALL ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD MADE FOR REASONABLE T/TD GRIDS FROM THE NBM WITH MINIMAL
TERRAIN BASED CONCERNS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A CLOSED ~515 DAM
PARENT LOW NEAR MONTREAL, QUEBEC, WITH A BROADER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. WEAK RIDGING IS NOTED OVER TEXAS WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REFLECTION CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OVER ARKANSAS.
WEAK HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SUPPORT THAT HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THAT HIGH THEN SINKS SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
POTENT REINFORCING 500HPA VORT ENERGY SINKS OUT OF NORTHERN
CANADA, CAUSING SIGNIFICANT RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISPARITY AS TO HOW COLD THE POST-FRONTAL
AIR MASS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE (10-11C LREF 10TH-90TH
PERCENTILE SPREAD AT 850 HPA), AS WELL AS THE OVERALL DEPTH OF THE
TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW COULD FAVOR A
MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE GREAT LAKES YIELDING MORE SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY IF THE COLDER SCENARIOS ARE REALIZED.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, TEMPERATURES START ON A SEASONABLY COLD
NOTE SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER
10S TO MID 20S. FAIR WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND FOLLOW FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, SWITCHING
OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK TO AROUND FREEZING. BRIEFLY DRIER WEATHER AND SOME
TEMPERATURE MODERATION FOLLOWS ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
FOR THE MOST PART THE TAF TERMINALS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AT
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE HAVE RETURNED TO VFR. THIS LULL WILL BE BRIEF
AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED, ATTENDING A COLD
FRONT, CROSSES FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 19Z AND 03Z. MAINLY MVFR
OR WORSE CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD,
THOUGH THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF CLEARING DURING THAT OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BEFORE YET ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW
SQUALLS AND TIMES OF LOW VISIBILITY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND IT STAYING BRISK AND BLUSTERY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY, SUNDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page