610
FXUS63 KJKL 110700
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
200 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING; THESE COULD LEAD
TO SUDDEN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
- A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS OCCURRED TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN
THIS AREA, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS AND THE FLOW HAS BECOME A
BIT USPLOPE. A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THAT ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT, CONVECTION WAS CURRENTLY OCCURRING FROM IN AND IL
BACK TOWARD THE ST LOUIS VICINITY. THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED
TO REACH EASTERN KY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR A FEW SQUALLS AND THIS POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN AN SPS, THE HWO, AND SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WV TO NEAR THE VA AND KY BORDER. A FEW
SHOWERS LINGER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, BUT THESE ARE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST PER RADAR IMAGERY. THE PREVIOUS POPS
HAD THIS WELL COVERED SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS INITIAL COLD FRONT
HAS MOVED EAST OF KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS LEFT
BEHIND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
INBOUND FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING TO KICK OFF MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEST TO EAST INTO THE EVENING.
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THROUGH THE
AREA. MEANWHILE, AMID SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH - MOST
PLACES, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, AS WELL.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEP CLOSED LOW TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES PHASING WITH
ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM TONIGHT AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM SETTLES
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY DAWN. THIS WILL PUSH SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE STATE AS WELL AS A CORE OF COLD 850
TEMPERATURES AND AN IMPRESSIVE MASS OF MID LEVEL ENERGY. BY 18Z
SUNDAY THE 5H TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PLOWING EAST OF KENTUCKY TAKING
THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND ENERGY ALONG WITH IT. HEIGHTS RISE IN ITS
WAKE WITH MODERATING 850 TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AREA INTO THE
EVENING AND A BENIGN OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALOFT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE SMALL SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS SUPPORTED USING THE NBM AS THE
STARTING POINT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
TO INCLUDE MORE HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS GUIDANCE TO POPS TONIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A DAMP START TO THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASINGLY BRISK WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT BRINGS WITH IT ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEALTHY SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LULL LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
THIRD AND FINAL FRONT PASSING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AN AIR MASS COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PCPN TO SNOW AS IT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE FAIRLY HIGH
FOR THIS PASSAGE AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING - PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY
THE POCKET OF COLDER AIR FROM JUST OFF THE SFC TO 850H TARGETING
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION CAMS SHOW VARIOUS SIGNS
OF MORE ROBUST SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS. ACCORDINGLY, HAVE LEANED INTO IT
AND KEPT POPS AND QPF MORE SUBSTANTIAL THAN THE NBM. WILL ALSO BE
ISSUING AN SPS ADDRESSING THE LOW VISIBILITY, BRIEF ACCUMULATIONS,
AND BLUSTERY RETURN TO WINTER CONCERNS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINGS DO QUIET DOWN SUNDAY EVENING WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING THAT
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FROM THESE SHOWERS
CONSIDERING THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE EVENT,
THOUGH SOME SLICK SPOTS MAY SHOW UP ON ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT PRIMARILY CONSISTED OF
BEEFING UP POPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR MORE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER
AND SQUALL ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD MADE FOR REASONABLE T/TD GRIDS FROM THE NBM WITH MINIMAL
TERRAIN BASED CONCERNS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
WHILE THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE DEFINED BY DRIER
SENSIBLE WEATHER, THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE BY
MIDWEEK. MONDAY'S POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT MODELS DEPICT THAT TROUGH'S AXIS
DIGGING DEEP INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SIGNALS THAT A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS POISED TO ADVECT
INTO THE COLUMN BEHIND THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT, WHICH SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLD AIR, BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL COME IN
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
AFTER A CHILLY MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RECOVER INTO THE 40S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FAVOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND EFFICIENT DIURNAL WARMING/RADIATIVE PROCESSES. A WEAK, PASSING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT COULD INTRODUCE SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ON MONDAY
EVENING, BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT RIDGE-VALLEY
SPLITS FROM DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS WARMER THAN THE
PRIOR NIGHT, BUT MINTS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. RIDGETOPS WILL WAKE UP TO LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 ON
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH COOLER VALLEY LOCALES SEEING LOWS IN THE 20S.
THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH ON TUESDAY, RETURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO A SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION. THE RESULTANT WAA WILL PUMP
TUESDAY'S AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 50S, AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODIFIED PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTS
AROUND THE BASE OF THE DIGGING MIDWEEK TROUGH.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE POSITIONED FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
OUT AHEAD OF THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM, AND RAIN CHANCES ACCORDINGLY
SPREAD ACROSS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS COLD AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT, A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH
GREATER THAN THE FREEZING POINT ON THURSDAY. POST-FRONTAL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT. QPF
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS THE HIGH OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES SHOULD LIMIT ACCESS TO THE MORE ROBUST GULF MOISTURE.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA, BUT ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE INCH ARE
CURRENTLY RELEGATED TO PLACES LIKE BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN THAT TYPICALLY
EXPERIENCE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ENHANCEMENTS. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS ONLY EXCEED 40% IN THE COUNTIES WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE. HOWEVER, THESE
PROBABILITIES HAVE GENERALLY TICKED UPWARDS TOWARDS THE 20-30% RANGE
IN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THIS MORNING'S
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUITE. THIS UPWARD TREND IS LIKELY RELATED TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF THE PARENT
TROUGH ALOFT. IF THAT MATERIALIZED IN A MANNER SIMILAR TO SOME OF
THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS, EASTERN KY WOULD BE POSITIONED ON
THE COLD SIDE OF A VERTICALLY-STACKED CYCLONE TRACKING THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. SUCH A SOLUTION FAVORS GREATER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL,
BUT DETERMINISTIC SNOW ACCUMULATION OUTPUT WILL LIKELY BE BOUNCY
FROM RUN TO RUN. SO, TRENDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR FURTHER
INCREASES IN THE COMING DAYS.
AFTER THE PARENT TROUGHING EJECTS OFF TO THE NE, SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SHOULD BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AND YIELD DRIER
CONDITIONS. SOME DEGREE OF LATE-WEEK THERMAL MODERATION IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE VERY END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, INCREASING LATE-WEEK MODEL SPREAD
AND COMPOUNDING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY PRECLUDE THE MENTION
OF SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME, SKIES HAD CLEARED ACROSS ALL BUT FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND THE
THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN A BRIEF SNOW SQUALL REACHING THE
I-64 CORRIDOR BY 10Z. THAT SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD EAST
OF I-75 THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY, INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THE
GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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