316
FXUS63 KJKL 110905 CCA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
405 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SQUALLS (WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON; THESE
COULD LEAD TO SUDDEN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS.
- A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED BACK CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS
MORNING, RANGING FROM 30F IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS TO THE UPPER 30S
IN THE FAR EASTERN VALLEYS UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND AN
~520 DAM LOW OVER LAKE HURON. THE COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY IS NOW
WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. LOOKING UPSTREAM, A MEAGER BROKEN LINE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IS NOTED FROM WILMINGTON, OH TO FRANKFORT, KY TO
MURRAY, KY JUST BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF A
500/700 HPA VORT LOBE. MORE EXTENSIVE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
NOTED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA UNDER/AHEAD OF A -24C COLD
POOL, A VORT MAX ALOFT AT 700 HPA, AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE DIP IN THE
250 HPA JET STREAM.
THE QUIET AND FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO WINDS
SWITCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND STIFFENING AS THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING BETWEEN
~10 AND 13Z. MIXED LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM BUFKIT SUGGESTS
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE POST-FRONTAL. MEANWHILE,
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A SQUALL ARE POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO HAVE DECREASED
CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO. INDEED, CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST MOST OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE
LACKLUSTER. THE BETTER THREAT FOR BRIEFLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE
SNOWFALL NOW APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 13Z AND 19Z WHEN STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL CORRESPOND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL
MOVING IN ALOFT, RENEWED SURFACE HEATING, AND STRONG POSITIVE
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL HELP THE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE LAYER DEEPEN TO AROUND -20C WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE
OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS, AS SUGGESTED BY RAP13 SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN A 3 AND 6, WITH THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CORES. IMPACT-
WISE, SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE A PRIMARY CONCERN AS THE
SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS MOVE IN. ANTECEDENT MODERATELY WARM
GROUND/PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR
ACCUMULATION; HOWEVER, INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY COULD STILL OVERCOME THE MELTING ABILITY OF THE WARM GROUND,
LEADING TO BRIEF ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH, INCLUDING ON
PAVEMENT. THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE VORT MAX/COLD POOL ALOFT PASSES AND
HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN A RAPID REBOUND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BEGIN
NOSING IN FROM THE ARKA-LA-TEX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTHWARD LATER IN
THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO DEVELOP ON A
WESTERLY FLOW, LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, LOOK FOR A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE SUNRISE, THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM.
THUNDERSNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS OF MAINLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED AND
WILL TEND TO MELT OFF AFTERWARD. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY, FAIR SKIES YIELD A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 10S TO MID 20S. ON MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S UNDER AMPLE
SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
WHILE THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE DEFINED BY DRIER
SENSIBLE WEATHER, THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE BY
MIDWEEK. MONDAY'S POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT MODELS DEPICT THAT TROUGH'S AXIS
DIGGING DEEP INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SIGNALS THAT A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS POISED TO ADVECT
INTO THE COLUMN BEHIND THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT, WHICH SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THAT COLD AIR, BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL COME IN
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
AFTER A CHILLY MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RECOVER INTO THE 40S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FAVOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND EFFICIENT DIURNAL WARMING/RADIATIVE PROCESSES. A WEAK, PASSING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT COULD INTRODUCE SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ON MONDAY
EVENING, BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT RIDGE-VALLEY
SPLITS FROM DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS WARMER THAN THE
PRIOR NIGHT, BUT MINTS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. RIDGETOPS WILL WAKE UP TO LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 ON
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH COOLER VALLEY LOCALES SEEING LOWS IN THE 20S.
THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH ON TUESDAY, RETURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO A SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION. THE RESULTANT WAA WILL PUMP
TUESDAY'S AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 50S, AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODIFIED PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTS
AROUND THE BASE OF THE DIGGING MIDWEEK TROUGH.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE POSITIONED FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
OUT AHEAD OF THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM, AND RAIN CHANCES ACCORDINGLY
SPREAD ACROSS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS COLD AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT, A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH
GREATER THAN THE FREEZING POINT ON THURSDAY. POST-FRONTAL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT. QPF
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS THE HIGH OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES SHOULD LIMIT ACCESS TO THE MORE ROBUST GULF MOISTURE.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA, BUT ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE INCH ARE
CURRENTLY RELEGATED TO PLACES LIKE BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN THAT TYPICALLY
EXPERIENCE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ENHANCEMENTS. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS ONLY EXCEED 40% IN THE COUNTIES WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE. HOWEVER, THESE
PROBABILITIES HAVE GENERALLY TICKED UPWARDS TOWARDS THE 20-30% RANGE
IN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THIS MORNING'S
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUITE. THIS UPWARD TREND IS LIKELY RELATED TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF THE PARENT
TROUGH ALOFT. IF THAT MATERIALIZED IN A MANNER SIMILAR TO SOME OF
THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS, EASTERN KY WOULD BE POSITIONED ON
THE COLD SIDE OF A VERTICALLY-STACKED CYCLONE TRACKING THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. SUCH A SOLUTION FAVORS GREATER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL,
BUT DETERMINISTIC SNOW ACCUMULATION OUTPUT WILL LIKELY BE BOUNCY
FROM RUN TO RUN. SO, TRENDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR FURTHER
INCREASES IN THE COMING DAYS.
AFTER THE PARENT TROUGHING EJECTS OFF TO THE NE, SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SHOULD BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AND YIELD DRIER
CONDITIONS. SOME DEGREE OF LATE-WEEK THERMAL MODERATION IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE VERY END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, INCREASING LATE-WEEK MODEL SPREAD
AND COMPOUNDING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY PRECLUDE THE MENTION
OF SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME, SKIES HAD CLEARED ACROSS ALL BUT FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND THE
THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN A BRIEF SNOW SQUALL REACHING THE
I-64 CORRIDOR BY 10Z. THAT SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD EAST
OF I-75 THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY, INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THE
GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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