653
FXUS63 KJKL 111755 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1255 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF SQUALLS ARE MOST LIKELY THROUGH 3 PM.
EXPECT SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
ONE INCH.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSNOW IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
SNOW SQUALLS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
- BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH COMBINE WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY, WITH EVEN WARMER WEATHER
ARRIVING TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 50S.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
A FINE TUNING OF THE NEAR TERM POPS PER THE CURRENT RADAR AND
CAMS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS FOR THE T/TD GRIDS. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS
AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH STRONG CYCLONIC/UPSLOPE SFC FLOW. THIS, COMBINED
WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATE OF A LOW LEVEL COLD POOL AND EVEN SOME
BREAKS FOR SUNSHINE IS DRIVING MORE SNOW SHOWER AND SQUALL
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EACH OF THESE SQUALLS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO UP TO 30 MPH ALONG
WITH A POTENTIAL TO LEAVE BEHIND A HALF INCH OR SO OF QUICK
ACCUMULATION. ADDITIONALLY, SOME THUNDERSNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. AN OVERALL SPS IS ADDRESSING THIS ALONG
WITH SPOT SQUALL ONES FOR THE MORE CONVECTIVE AND IMPACTFUL
ELEMENTS. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S
NORTH WITH LOW TO MID 30S IN THE FAR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, AMID
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS, DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE
T/TD/SKY GRIDS AND ALSO TO ADDRESS THE LATEST RADAR AND CAMS
GUIDANCE FOR POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING
OF THE SPS, SAFS, AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
A COLD FRONT WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS QUICKLY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE JKL CWA AT UPDATE TIME. A ROUGH
ANALYSIS WOULD PLACE THE BOUNDARY FROM NEAR PORTSMOUTH TO JACKSON
TO SOMERSET AT 1215Z. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, SETTING THE STAGE (AS OUTLINED IN THE
SHORT-TERM AFD) FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWER AND SQUALL
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED BACK CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS
MORNING, RANGING FROM 30F IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS TO THE UPPER 30S
IN THE FAR EASTERN VALLEYS UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND AN
~520 DAM LOW OVER LAKE HURON. THE COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY IS NOW
WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. LOOKING UPSTREAM, A MEAGER BROKEN LINE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IS NOTED FROM WILMINGTON, OH TO FRANKFORT, KY TO
MURRAY, KY JUST BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF A
500/700 HPA VORT LOBE. MORE EXTENSIVE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
NOTED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA UNDER/AHEAD OF A -24C COLD
POOL, A VORT MAX ALOFT AT 700 HPA, AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE DIP IN THE
250 HPA JET STREAM.
THE QUIET AND FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO WINDS
SWITCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND STIFFENING AS THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING BETWEEN
~10 AND 13Z. MIXED LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM BUFKIT SUGGESTS
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE POST-FRONTAL. MEANWHILE,
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A SQUALL ARE POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO HAVE DECREASED
CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO. INDEED, CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST MOST OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE
LACKLUSTER. THE BETTER THREAT FOR BRIEFLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE
SNOWFALL NOW APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 13Z AND 19Z WHEN STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL CORRESPOND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL
MOVING IN ALOFT, RENEWED SURFACE HEATING, AND STRONG POSITIVE
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL HELP THE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE LAYER DEEPEN TO AROUND -20C WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE
OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS, AS SUGGESTED BY RAP13 SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN A 3 AND 6, WITH THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CORES. IMPACT-
WISE, SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE A PRIMARY CONCERN AS THE
SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS MOVE IN. ANTECEDENT MODERATELY WARM
GROUND/PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR
ACCUMULATION; HOWEVER, INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY COULD STILL OVERCOME THE MELTING ABILITY OF THE WARM GROUND,
LEADING TO BRIEF ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH, INCLUDING ON
PAVEMENT. THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE VORT MAX/COLD POOL ALOFT PASSES AND
HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN A RAPID REBOUND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BEGIN
NOSING IN FROM THE ARKA-LA-TEX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTHWARD LATER IN
THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO DEVELOP ON A
WESTERLY FLOW, LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, LOOK FOR A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE SUNRISE, THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM.
THUNDERSNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS OF MAINLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED AND
WILL TEND TO MELT OFF AFTERWARD. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY, FAIR SKIES YIELD A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 10S TO MID 20S. ON MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S UNDER AMPLE
SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 558 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS MONDAY EVENING WITH MEAN 500 HPA
TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ADJACENT
REGIONS, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH IS NOTED OVER SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN ~994
MB SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST OF SASKATOON.
THAT LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY AND RIDE DOWN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. MILD
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL
DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THAT SURFACE LOW, REACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL POTENT VORT/SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE TROUGH IS INCREASINGLY FAVORED TO CLOSE OFF
THE TROUGH INTO A 500 HPA LOW WHICH THEN PASSES NEAR OR SOUTH OF
THE COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IF THIS
MATERIALIZES, IT COULD SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS TROUGH/LOW EVOLVES, THE CLOSED-
OFF SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC 11/00Z ECMWF/GFS WOULD
BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TO BRING AN IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL (IN MANY CASES HEAVY) TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY, ESPECIALLY IF A DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPS IN THE FAVORED
ZONE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORED IN THE GUIDANCE TO BRING WARNING-CRITERIA
SNOWFALL, IT BEARS MONITORING FOR THOSE WHO ARE IMPACTED BY ACCUMULATING
SNOW CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA-KENTUCKY BORDER.
WHILE THAT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PULLS AWAY ON FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND,
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER THREAT FOR SATURDAY.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR A FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE 20S TO MID 30S. MILD AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FOR MOST. LOOKING AHEAD TO
WEDNESDAY, RAIN CHANCES REDEVELOP FROM THE NORTH AND FLIP TO SNOW
LATE AS TEMPERATURES TUMBLE BACK BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AND STAY
BELOW THAT THRESHOLD IN MANY PLACES THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE
PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE INCH OF SNOW IN THE 11/00Z LREF AT A
10:1 SLR (POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN REALITY) IS 20 TO 70%, HIGHEST
OVER HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES AND LOWEST OVER PULASKI AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BEFORE MORE
WINTER WEATHER VISITS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY MARKED
THE START OF THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST CYCLE WITH THE EASTERN
TERMINALS STILL SEEING IMPACTS THAT WILL BRIEFLY REACH IFR OR
WORSE CONDITIONS AS ANY SQUALL PASSES. THIS THREAT DIMINISHES
FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
STATUS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY INTO THE EVENING AT
10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
DARK. WINDS THEN WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING MUCH OF THE
NIGHT BUT PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY MONDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
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