954
FXUS63 KJKL 112006
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
306 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF SQUALLS ARE MOST LIKELY THROUGH 3 PM.
EXPECT SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
ONE INCH.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSNOW IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
SNOW SQUALLS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
- BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH COMBINE WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY, WITH EVEN WARMER WEATHER
ARRIVING TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 50S.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
A FINE TUNING OF THE NEAR TERM POPS PER THE CURRENT RADAR AND
CAMS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS FOR THE T/TD GRIDS. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS
AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH STRONG CYCLONIC/UPSLOPE SFC FLOW. THIS, COMBINED
WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATE OF A LOW LEVEL COLD POOL AND EVEN SOME
BREAKS FOR SUNSHINE IS DRIVING MORE SNOW SHOWER AND SQUALL
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EACH OF THESE SQUALLS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO UP TO 30 MPH ALONG
WITH A POTENTIAL TO LEAVE BEHIND A HALF INCH OR SO OF QUICK
ACCUMULATION. ADDITIONALLY, SOME THUNDERSNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. AN OVERALL SPS IS ADDRESSING THIS ALONG
WITH SPOT SQUALL ONES FOR THE MORE CONVECTIVE AND IMPACTFUL
ELEMENTS. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S
NORTH WITH LOW TO MID 30S IN THE FAR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, AMID
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS, DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE
T/TD/SKY GRIDS AND ALSO TO ADDRESS THE LATEST RADAR AND CAMS
GUIDANCE FOR POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING
OF THE SPS, SAFS, AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
A COLD FRONT WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS QUICKLY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE JKL CWA AT UPDATE TIME. A ROUGH
ANALYSIS WOULD PLACE THE BOUNDARY FROM NEAR PORTSMOUTH TO JACKSON
TO SOMERSET AT 1215Z. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, SETTING THE STAGE (AS OUTLINED IN THE
SHORT-TERM AFD) FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWER AND SQUALL
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED BACK CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS
MORNING, RANGING FROM 30F IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS TO THE UPPER 30S
IN THE FAR EASTERN VALLEYS UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND AN
~520 DAM LOW OVER LAKE HURON. THE COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY IS NOW
WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. LOOKING UPSTREAM, A MEAGER BROKEN LINE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IS NOTED FROM WILMINGTON, OH TO FRANKFORT, KY TO
MURRAY, KY JUST BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF A
500/700 HPA VORT LOBE. MORE EXTENSIVE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
NOTED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA UNDER/AHEAD OF A -24C COLD
POOL, A VORT MAX ALOFT AT 700 HPA, AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE DIP IN THE
250 HPA JET STREAM.
THE QUIET AND FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO WINDS
SWITCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND STIFFENING AS THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING BETWEEN
~10 AND 13Z. MIXED LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM BUFKIT SUGGESTS
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE POST-FRONTAL. MEANWHILE,
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A SQUALL ARE POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO HAVE DECREASED
CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO. INDEED, CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST MOST OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE
LACKLUSTER. THE BETTER THREAT FOR BRIEFLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE
SNOWFALL NOW APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 13Z AND 19Z WHEN STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL CORRESPOND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL
MOVING IN ALOFT, RENEWED SURFACE HEATING, AND STRONG POSITIVE
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL HELP THE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE LAYER DEEPEN TO AROUND -20C WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE
OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS, AS SUGGESTED BY RAP13 SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN A 3 AND 6, WITH THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CORES. IMPACT-
WISE, SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE A PRIMARY CONCERN AS THE
SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS MOVE IN. ANTECEDENT MODERATELY WARM
GROUND/PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR
ACCUMULATION; HOWEVER, INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY COULD STILL OVERCOME THE MELTING ABILITY OF THE WARM GROUND,
LEADING TO BRIEF ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH, INCLUDING ON
PAVEMENT. THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE VORT MAX/COLD POOL ALOFT PASSES AND
HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN A RAPID REBOUND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BEGIN
NOSING IN FROM THE ARKA-LA-TEX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTHWARD LATER IN
THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO DEVELOP ON A
WESTERLY FLOW, LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, LOOK FOR A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE SUNRISE, THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM.
THUNDERSNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS OF MAINLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED AND
WILL TEND TO MELT OFF AFTERWARD. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY, FAIR SKIES YIELD A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 10S TO MID 20S. ON MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S UNDER AMPLE
SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM DRY,
UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL NOT LAST HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. TUESDAY WILL START OFF WITH SOME INCREASED
TROUGHING ALOFT, AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR, BRINGING AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THANKFULLY THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR
NORTH, KEEPING US DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, BRINGING THE RETURN OF STRONG SW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP
OUT IN THE MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY, AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN, NOT SOMETHING TO GET TOO
EXITED ABOUT, BECAUSE THIS TOO WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START TO SEE A TRANSITION IN THE FLOW ALOFT. A
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA, AND CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN THE OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
SHARPLY DECREASING PRESSURE TO MUCH OF THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL THEN FORM BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING, DEEPENING AS IT MOVES STRAIGHT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THEN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE FINALLY EXITING
THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE ECWMF SHOWS THIS LOW GETTING AS
LOW AS 516MB ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS, STRONG LIFT, AND A DEEP DIVE OF COLD CANADIAN
AIR INTO THE REGION. THE RETURN OF WINTER.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INFLUX OF
COLD AIR ON THE APEX AND BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
TOO WILL OFFER A CENTER FOR LIFT AND INSTABILITY, LEADING TO
INCREASED PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KY STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EVEN AFTER THE
COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SE, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE, CONTINUING THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL UNTIL IT
EXITS THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE WARM AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, IT LOOKS LIKE ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OFF AS RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, AS SOON AS THE INFLUX OF COLD
AIR MOVES IN STARTING WEDNESDAY EVENING, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
DROP BELOW FREEZING, AND ALL RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY THE TIME IT TAPERS OFF LATE THURSDAY, THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS BETWEEN 1 INCH (WEST) AND POSSIBLY 4-5 INCHES (EAST), BASED ON
WPC QPF, AND NBM TEMPERATURES. THIS IS STILL DAYS 4-5, SO THERE IS
ROOM FOR CHANGE, BUT DEFINITELY GOING TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S (SOME 20+ DEGREES
COLDER THAN TUESDAY).
THEORETICALLY, HAD THIS SYSTEM DIVE-BOMBED FURTHER SOUTHWARD,
PUTTING KY MORE IN THE COLD SECTOR, AND WE WERE COLDER STARTING OUT,
THESE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE MUCH MUCH MORE. THANKFULLY THERE IS
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
ACROSS THE STATE, WHICH IS GIVING BETTER CONFIDENCE TO THE IMPACTS
AND OUTCOMES OF THIS SYSTEM.
UNFORTUNATELY AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT, WE AREN'T DONE
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NO SOONER DOES THIS SYSTEM EXIT, BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT KY FROM
THE NW. THE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE FELT FIRST FRIDAY, WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING SHORTLY AFTER, LIKELY IMPACTING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY. UNLIKE THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY
SYSTEM, THERE IS VERY VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THIS NEXT WEEKEND
SYSTEM. KEPT WITH THE NBM FOR NOW, SIMPLY BECAUSE THERE IS SUCH A
WIDE RANGE IN SOLUTIONS AMONGST THE LONG-RANGE MODELS THAT THERE IS
VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE TOWARDS ONE PARTICULAR SOLUTION. EXPECT THESE
PATTERNS TO CHANGE, MODELS TO START TO LINE UP, AND PRECIPITATION
TIMING/LOCATION TO COME INTO BETTER CONFIDENCE. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS
LIKE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD, AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN DURING
THE DAY. BUT AGAIN, THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY MARKED
THE START OF THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST CYCLE WITH THE EASTERN
TERMINALS STILL SEEING IMPACTS THAT WILL BRIEFLY REACH IFR OR
WORSE CONDITIONS AS ANY SQUALL PASSES. THIS THREAT DIMINISHES
FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
STATUS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY INTO THE EVENING AT
10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
DARK. WINDS THEN WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING MUCH OF THE
NIGHT BUT PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY MONDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
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