801
FXUS63 KJKL 120932
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
432 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY, WITH EVEN WARMER WEATHER ARRIVING
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 50S.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
THERMOMETERS HAVE DIPPED WELL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING, RANGING FROM THE MID 10S TO LOW 20S
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED, TO THE
MID 20S FARTHER NORTH WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT. AT
THE SURFACE, AN ~1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST FROM AROUND NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE TO THE ARKANSAS/
LOUISIANA BORDER. LOOKING ALOFT, A MEAN 500 HPA TROUGH IS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND A PARENT LOW SITUATED NEAR/OVER
NORTHERN MAINE. TO OUR SOUTHWEST, A WEAK UPPER LOW IS SPINNING
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. WELL TO THE NORTHWEST, A POTENT SYSTEM IS
COMING ASHORE OVER THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD
SHOWING THAT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
500 HPA TROUGHING, WHILE THE BAJA LOW DRIFTS NORTHEAST TO OVER
TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE, THE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO OUR REGION WILL
GRADUALLY RETREAT SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE, A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THIS EVENING TO
NEAR/NORTH OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND HURON ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY SANDWICHED UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND THE LOW TO OUR NORTH.
RETURN FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ADVECT A
MODEST STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES (6-7C @
850 HPA) ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF THE PERIOD CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN GFS BUFKIT MIXED LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES RANGE FROM
20 TO 30 KTS.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR FAIR SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A NOTABLE WARMING TREND. AFTER A SEASONABLE BRAND
OF COLD THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST PLACES. NOTABLE RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLITS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S TO LOW 30S. MARKEDLY MILDER WEATHER FOLLOWS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 5 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM DRY,
UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL NOT LAST HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. TUESDAY WILL START OFF WITH SOME INCREASED
TROUGHING ALOFT, AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR, BRINGING AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THANKFULLY THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR
NORTH, KEEPING US DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, BRINGING THE RETURN OF STRONG SW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP
OUT IN THE MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY, AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN, NOT SOMETHING TO GET TOO
EXITED ABOUT, BECAUSE THIS TOO WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START TO SEE A TRANSITION IN THE FLOW ALOFT. A
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA, AND CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN THE OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
SHARPLY DECREASING PRESSURE TO MUCH OF THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL THEN FORM BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING, DEEPENING AS IT MOVES STRAIGHT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THEN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE FINALLY EXITING
THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE ECWMF SHOWS THIS LOW GETTING AS
LOW AS 516MB ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS, STRONG LIFT, AND A DEEP DIVE OF COLD CANADIAN
AIR INTO THE REGION. THE RETURN OF WINTER.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INFLUX OF
COLD AIR ON THE APEX AND BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
TOO WILL OFFER A CENTER FOR LIFT AND INSTABILITY, LEADING TO
INCREASED PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KY STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EVEN AFTER THE
COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SE, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE, CONTINUING THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL UNTIL IT
EXITS THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE WARM AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, IT LOOKS LIKE ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OFF AS RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, AS SOON AS THE INFLUX OF COLD
AIR MOVES IN STARTING WEDNESDAY EVENING, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
DROP BELOW FREEZING, AND ALL RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY THE TIME IT TAPERS OFF LATE THURSDAY, THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS BETWEEN 1 INCH (WEST) AND POSSIBLY 4-5 INCHES (EAST), BASED ON
WPC QPF, AND NBM TEMPERATURES. THIS IS STILL DAYS 4-5, SO THERE IS
ROOM FOR CHANGE, BUT DEFINITELY GOING TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S (SOME 20+ DEGREES
COLDER THAN TUESDAY).
THEORETICALLY, HAD THIS SYSTEM DIVE-BOMBED FURTHER SOUTHWARD,
PUTTING KY MORE IN THE COLD SECTOR, AND WE WERE COLDER STARTING OUT,
THESE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE MUCH MUCH MORE. THANKFULLY THERE IS
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
ACROSS THE STATE, WHICH IS GIVING BETTER CONFIDENCE TO THE IMPACTS
AND OUTCOMES OF THIS SYSTEM.
UNFORTUNATELY AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT, WE AREN'T DONE
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NO SOONER DOES THIS SYSTEM EXIT, BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT KY FROM
THE NW. THE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE FELT FIRST FRIDAY, WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING SHORTLY AFTER, LIKELY IMPACTING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY. UNLIKE THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY
SYSTEM, THERE IS VERY VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THIS NEXT WEEKEND
SYSTEM. KEPT WITH THE NBM FOR NOW, SIMPLY BECAUSE THERE IS SUCH A
WIDE RANGE IN SOLUTIONS AMONGST THE LONG-RANGE MODELS THAT THERE IS
VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE TOWARDS ONE PARTICULAR SOLUTION. EXPECT THESE
PATTERNS TO CHANGE, MODELS TO START TO LINE UP, AND PRECIPITATION
TIMING/LOCATION TO COME INTO BETTER CONFIDENCE. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS
LIKE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD, AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN DURING
THE DAY. BUT AGAIN, THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
AT ISSUANCE TIME, LOW CLOUDS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER END OF THE
VFR RANGE OR THE UPPER END OF THE MVFR RANGE WERE AFFECTING THE
3 NORTHERNMOST TAF SITES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE FIRST 3 OR 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD, WITH
CLEARING LIKELY TO REACH KJKL WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OF THE PERIOD,
THEN KSJS, THEN KSYM. ONCE CLEARING OCCURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA,
VFR SHOULD REMAIN FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. UNDER PRESSURE,
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH ON MONDAY, WINDS SHOULD PICK BACK
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10KT
PARTICULARLY, IN THE MORE WESTERN AND OPEN TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP
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