096
FXUS63 KJKL 121153
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
653 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY, WITH EVEN WARMER WEATHER ARRIVING
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 50S.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
THERMOMETERS HAVE DIPPED WELL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING, RANGING FROM THE MID 10S TO LOW 20S
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED, TO THE
MID 20S FARTHER NORTH WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT. AT
THE SURFACE, AN ~1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST FROM AROUND NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE TO THE ARKANSAS/
LOUISIANA BORDER. LOOKING ALOFT, A MEAN 500 HPA TROUGH IS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND A PARENT LOW SITUATED NEAR/OVER
NORTHERN MAINE. TO OUR SOUTHWEST, A WEAK UPPER LOW IS SPINNING
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. WELL TO THE NORTHWEST, A POTENT SYSTEM IS
COMING ASHORE OVER THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD
SHOWING THAT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
500 HPA TROUGHING, WHILE THE BAJA LOW DRIFTS NORTHEAST TO OVER
TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE, THE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO OUR REGION WILL
GRADUALLY RETREAT SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE, A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THIS EVENING TO
NEAR/NORTH OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND HURON ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY SANDWICHED UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND THE LOW TO OUR NORTH.
RETURN FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ADVECT A
MODEST STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES (6-7C @
850 HPA) ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF THE PERIOD CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN GFS BUFKIT MIXED LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES RANGE FROM
20 TO 30 KTS.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR FAIR SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A NOTABLE WARMING TREND. AFTER A SEASONABLE BRAND
OF COLD THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST PLACES. NOTABLE RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLITS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S TO LOW 30S. MARKEDLY MILDER WEATHER FOLLOWS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 5 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
THE NEXT NOTABLE STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. THE 12/00Z MODEL SUITE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY EVENING, SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AROUND A ~487 DAM PARENT LOW OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC. THERE IS POTENT VORT ENERGY/SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO DROPPING INTO THE TROUGH. A MUCH
WEAKER ~568 DAM LOW IS ALSO NOTED OVER TEXAS AND IS OPENING INTO
THE TROUGH JUST TO ITS NORTH AND EAST. AN ~990 MB SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ALSO BE LOCATED NEAR/NORTH OF SAULT STE MARIE WITH A POTENT
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
THE UPPER LEVEL VORT ENERGY/SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO
SLING SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY, CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH THAT IS
NOW FORECAST BY THE 12/00Z GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TO
CLOSE OFF NEAR/OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL
FLING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. BEHIND THAT FRONT AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW, A MUCH COLDER POLAR AIR MASS WILL SWEEP
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON A STIFF NORTHERLY FLOW. THE
RESULTING LAKE-ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS LIKELY TO
INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH OUR TERRAIN, YIELDING OROGRAPHICALLY-
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AS THE 925-850 HPA STREAMLINES ARE NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO PINE MOUNTAIN FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO DROP TO
NEAR -15C, PLACING A VAST MAJORITY OF THE MOIST CONVECTIVE LAYER
IN THE DGZ. THIS SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY BE DRY, FLUFFY SNOW WITH
SLRS GREATER THAN 15:1. OVERALL AMOUNTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AT THIS POINT, AS THE DEPTH/POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE PIVOTAL FOR THE GREAT LAKES MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT AND TRUE
COLDNESS OF THE INCOMING AIR MASS. WITH THAT SAID, THE POTENTIAL
DOES EXIST FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE VA-KY BORDER TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR LESS WEST OF I-75 AND
NORTH OF I-64. HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED TO REBOUND QUICKLY THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT, BRINGING ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN
END AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A QUICK BRUSH TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. WHILE THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE FUZZY, ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING INTO THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONTINENT MAY VERY WELL CLOSE OFF INTO ANOTHER LOW NEAR/NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, SUPPORTING ANOTHER LOW
PASSING NEAR/OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION (POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION) FOLLOWED BY A
SHARP COLD FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT FRONT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE A
POTENTIAL INCURSION OF ARCTIC AIR.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR THE MILDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY, RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR
50S, ALBEIT MARRED BY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES DROP PRECIPITOUSLY LATER IN THE DAY, SWITCHING RAIN
TO SNOW SHOWERS THAT THEN PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE
ONLY FORECAST TO REACH 25F TO 30F AND THEN DIP INTO THE TEENS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND SUNNIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
WITH MANY LOCATIONS BREAKING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK, BUT
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ARE PROBABLE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH DOWNWARD TRENDING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KTS POSSIBLE AT LOZ, SME, AND SYM.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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