230
FXUS63 KJKL 121900
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
200 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH EVEN WARMER
WEATHER ARRIVING TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 50S.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING PAST THE AREA TO
THE SOUTH. THIS HAS KEPT THE SKIES CLOUDFREE AND ALLOWED FOR A
DECENT WARM UP FROM QUITE CHILLY MORNING LOWS. CURRENTLY,
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, AMID SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH - MOST PLACES,
DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT GENERAL TOUGHING ABOVE THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IN PLACE INTO TUESDAY WITH MEDIUMLY SWIFT
NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID-LEVELS AND LIMITED ENERGY PACKETS PASSING
THROUGH KENTUCKY. THIS PATTERN CHANGES A BIT THAT NIGHT, THOUGH,
WITH A RENEWED SURGE SOUTH OF TROUGHING AT 5H TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
MORE ENERGY POISED TO ENTER THE AREA BY DAWN WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PARTIALLY PHASE WITH A WEAKENNING SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH LATER THAT MORNING SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER FROM MIDWEEK
ON INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STILL SMALL SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS
AGAIN SUPPORTED USING THE NBM AS THE STARTING POINT OF THE
FORECAST GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO INCORPORATE MORE
TERRAIN DISTINCTION FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT,
THOUGH NOT AS COLD FOR MOST PLACES AS WE SAW THIS MORNING. WITH
RETURN FLOW ENGAGING ON THE RIDGES AND THE MORE OPEN TERRAIN BUT
CALM WINDS FOR THE SHELTERED VALLEYS WE ARE LOOKING AT A RATHER
LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TONIGHT STARTING OFF
JUST BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING. THESE DIFFERENCES MIX OUT BY MID
MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH EXPECTED THAT AFTERNOON) SETTING UP AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
MAKER IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING THAT NIGHT. LOOK FOR
MORE CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING BREEZY INTO THE NIGHT. A SLUG OF MOISTURE POOLS WITH
THE FRONT AND IS LIKELY TO BRING WETTING RAINS TO MOST OF THE AREA
BY DAWN WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
- THOUGH THE LATEST NAM RUN HAS BACKED OFF OF THE SNOW AMOUNTS
AFTER THIS PERIOD.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT PRIMARILY CONSISTED OF
ADDING MORE TERRAIN BASED DISTINCTION INTO THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS
TONIGHT - ALLOWING FOR THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE MORE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS. DID ALSO TWEAK THE NBM POPS PER THE LATEST HIGHER
RESOLUTION CAMS CONCENSUS WITH THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
THE NEXT NOTABLE STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. THE 12/00Z MODEL SUITE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY EVENING, SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AROUND A ~487 DAM PARENT LOW OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC. THERE IS POTENT VORT ENERGY/SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO DROPPING INTO THE TROUGH. A MUCH
WEAKER ~568 DAM LOW IS ALSO NOTED OVER TEXAS AND IS OPENING INTO
THE TROUGH JUST TO ITS NORTH AND EAST. AN ~990 MB SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ALSO BE LOCATED NEAR/NORTH OF SAULT STE MARIE WITH A POTENT
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
THE UPPER LEVEL VORT ENERGY/SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO
SLING SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY, CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH THAT IS
NOW FORECAST BY THE 12/00Z GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TO
CLOSE OFF NEAR/OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL
FLING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. BEHIND THAT FRONT AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW, A MUCH COLDER POLAR AIR MASS WILL SWEEP
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON A STIFF NORTHERLY FLOW. THE
RESULTING LAKE-ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS LIKELY TO
INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH OUR TERRAIN, YIELDING OROGRAPHICALLY-
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AS THE 925-850 HPA STREAMLINES ARE NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO PINE MOUNTAIN FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO DROP TO
NEAR -15C, PLACING A VAST MAJORITY OF THE MOIST CONVECTIVE LAYER
IN THE DGZ. THIS SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY BE DRY, FLUFFY SNOW WITH
SLRS GREATER THAN 15:1. OVERALL AMOUNTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AT THIS POINT, AS THE DEPTH/POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE PIVOTAL FOR THE GREAT LAKES MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT AND TRUE
COLDNESS OF THE INCOMING AIR MASS. WITH THAT SAID, THE POTENTIAL
DOES EXIST FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE VA-KY BORDER TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR LESS WEST OF I-75 AND
NORTH OF I-64. HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED TO REBOUND QUICKLY THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT, BRINGING ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN
END AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A QUICK BRUSH TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. WHILE THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE FUZZY, ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING INTO THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONTINENT MAY VERY WELL CLOSE OFF INTO ANOTHER LOW NEAR/NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, SUPPORTING ANOTHER LOW
PASSING NEAR/OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION (POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION) FOLLOWED BY A
SHARP COLD FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT FRONT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE A
POTENTIAL INCURSION OF ARCTIC AIR.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR THE MILDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY, RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR
50S, ALBEIT MARRED BY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES DROP PRECIPITOUSLY LATER IN THE DAY, SWITCHING RAIN
TO SNOW SHOWERS THAT THEN PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE
ONLY FORECAST TO REACH 25F TO 30F AND THEN DIP INTO THE TEENS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND SUNNIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
WITH MANY LOCATIONS BREAKING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK, BUT
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ARE PROBABLE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH DOWNWARD TRENDING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE AREA AT THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER DARK.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZIER ON TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
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