166
FXUS63 KJKL 130925
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
425 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BRIEF WARM-UP WILL LAST THROUGH TODAY, WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
THEN RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MOST PLACES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- ANY SNOW TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO
THURSDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
THERMOMETERS SHOW A MODERATE RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER STARLIT SKIES -- READINGS RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 20S IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS TO THE MID 30S ON THE THERMAL
BELT RIDGES AND OPEN PORTIONS OF THE BLUEGRASS. THE PLACID
WEATHER IS COURTESY OF A SQUAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM TEXAS EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE, MEAN 500 HPA TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT AROUND AN ~485 DAM
PARENT LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. MULTIPLE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARE RIDING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, INCLUDING A
PROMINENT ONE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA ATTENDED BY AN ~990
MB LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT TRAILS WEST AND THEN
NORTH FROM THIS LOW BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL RESIDE UNDER A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN
FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLINKS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE LOW-LEVEL JET FEEDING
INTO THE SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO BETWEEN
~25 TO 35 KTS AT 925 HPA, HIGHEST NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. IN BUFKIT,
THIS TRANSLATES TO MIXED LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES REACHING
20 TO 30 KTS, AGAIN STRONGEST NORTH OF I-64, LEADING TO A BREEZY
DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP MIXING GOING OVERNIGHT, THOUGH NOT AS GUSTY AS
THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, COURTESY OF ROBUST MID-LEVEL WAA.
MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A
DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
SEND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD, REACHING THE I-64
CORRIDOR AROUND 16Z ON WEDNESDAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY CROSSING THE
BORDER INTO VIRGINIA BY AROUND 20Z. IT DOES LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, EXCEPT ATOP BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN
WHERE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW SNOW TO MIX IN EARLY AND
ALSO ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER RAIN BAND AS TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY DROP OFF AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION
WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD OCCUR JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE AND POTENTIALLY GREAT LAKES ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY, GENERALLY 0.20 TO 0.30 INCH.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR FAIR SKIES TO YIELD AN EVEN
WARMER AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID 50S
(PERHAPS UPPER 50S IN THE WARM SPOTS). IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH AT TIMES. FOR
TONIGHT, THE BREEZE WILL WEAKEN BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST (A FEW
MID 30S IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS). LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE IN
THE NIGHT AND IMPACT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE
RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SNOW DURING THE DAY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND THEN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ELSEWHERE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE RAIN TAPERS. IT WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S GENERALLY OCCURRING
MORNING/MIDDAY, THEN FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
TRANSITIONAL WEATHER WILL OCCUR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, WITH A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST THROUGH KY DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET RESULTING IN RAIN. A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOULD
ALSO OCCUR AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS HAVE NOT
COME INTO STRONG AGREEMENT YET ON TIMING OF DEEP MOISTURE
DEPARTURE AND ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR, BUT HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
TOWARD LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST PLACES. A TRANSITION
FROM STRATIFORM PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE ARRIVING
COLDER AIR MASS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. THE BEST SHOT AT ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS IN SOUTHEAST KY ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. A BRIEF ENHANCEMENT
FROM CONNECTION TO FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
BUT DETAILS ON THIS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE YET. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EVENTUALLY GETS ERODED AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN EVEN IN
SOUTHEAST KY BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES COLD.
IMPULSES/VORTICITY MAXES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ALONG WITH
REINFORCEMENTS OF COLDER AIR AND BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN OUR DAY TO
DAY WEATHER. HOWEVER, MODELS SHOW LESS AGREEMENT (MORE
UNCERTAINTY) IN HOW THIS PLAYS OUT THE FURTHER OUT IN TIME THAT
YOU LOOK. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES (MOST LIKELY
SNOW), BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS NOT VERY HIGH.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE REGION AT THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT 5KT OR LESS. EASTERN KY REMAINS
ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH THIS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE FIRST
6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AND WINDS MAY PICK UP ON RIDGETOPS AND MORE
OPEN TERRAIN LOCATIONS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH 12Z.
AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH. ONCE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION MIXES OUT, SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN
THE 5 TO 15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LESS GUSTY AGAIN TOWARD 00Z AND THERE WILL BE
A THREAT OF LLWS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD, WITH INITIALLY HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES, THOUGH MID AND A FEW LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASINGLY PROBABLE LATE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP
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