836
FXUS63 KJKL 131052
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
552 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND MILD WEATHER OCCURS TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID-50S AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
- RAIN BEGINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
MOUNTAINS.
- COLD, WINTRY TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
THERMOMETERS SHOW A MODERATE RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER STARLIT SKIES -- READINGS RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 20S IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS TO THE MID 30S ON THE THERMAL
BELT RIDGES AND OPEN PORTIONS OF THE BLUEGRASS. THE PLACID
WEATHER IS COURTESY OF A SQUAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM TEXAS EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE, MEAN 500 HPA TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT AROUND AN ~485 DAM
PARENT LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. MULTIPLE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ARE RIDING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, INCLUDING A
PROMINENT ONE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA ATTENDED BY AN ~990
MB LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT TRAILS WEST AND THEN
NORTH FROM THIS LOW BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL RESIDE UNDER A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN
FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLINKS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE LOW-LEVEL JET FEEDING
INTO THE SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO BETWEEN
~25 TO 35 KTS AT 925 HPA, HIGHEST NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. IN BUFKIT,
THIS TRANSLATES TO MIXED LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES REACHING
20 TO 30 KTS, AGAIN STRONGEST NORTH OF I-64, LEADING TO A BREEZY
DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP MIXING GOING OVERNIGHT, THOUGH NOT AS GUSTY AS
THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, COURTESY OF ROBUST MID-LEVEL WAA.
MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A
DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
SEND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD, REACHING THE I-64
CORRIDOR AROUND 16Z ON WEDNESDAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY CROSSING THE
BORDER INTO VIRGINIA BY AROUND 20Z. IT DOES LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, EXCEPT ATOP BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN
WHERE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW SNOW TO MIX IN EARLY AND
ALSO ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER RAIN BAND AS TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY DROP OFF AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION
WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD OCCUR JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE AND POTENTIALLY GREAT LAKES ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY, GENERALLY 0.20 TO 0.30 INCH.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR FAIR SKIES TO YIELD AN EVEN
WARMER AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID 50S
(PERHAPS UPPER 50S IN THE WARM SPOTS). IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH AT TIMES. FOR
TONIGHT, THE BREEZE WILL WEAKEN BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST (A FEW
MID 30S IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS). LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE IN
THE NIGHT AND IMPACT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE
RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SNOW DURING THE DAY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND THEN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ELSEWHERE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE RAIN TAPERS. IT WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S GENERALLY OCCURRING
MORNING/MIDDAY, THEN FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL KICK OFF ON A WINTRY NOTE WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AT 00Z THURSDAY SHOWING A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES (SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
FARTHER NORTH THAN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTED JUST A FEW DAYS
AGO). A DUE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, WHERE THE FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE
OVERALL AIR MASS WILL BE DRY WITH JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER AND FLURRY
ACTIVITY. THE BIGGER QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT OUR AREA IS
ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH COMING OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN -- THERE WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AS
WELL AS SOME SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT NARROW STREAM OF LAKE-
ENHANCED MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE BRISK AND TURNING MUCH COLDER AS 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO AROUND -15 TO -16C BY 12Z THURSDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MIDDAY THURSDAY. RAPID HEIGHT RISES FOLLOW
ALOFT WITH A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE LATE IN THE DAY AND ON
THURSDAY NIGHT, WHILE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRUSHES PAST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. TWO OR EVEN THREE MORE REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS IN RAPID SUCCESSION WILL DROP INTO THE PERSISTENT FULL-
LATITUDE PARENT TROUGH FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT,
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES (MAINLY SNOW) ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS MULTIPLE WEAK SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTS PASS. THUS, AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE ON FRIDAY WHEN 850
HPA TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ~-5C, THE AIR MASS WILL COOL OFF
SUBSTANTIALLY, THOUGH THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL VARIATION
WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND THE COLDNESS OF THE SUCCESSIVE SURGES OF
COLDER AIR (THE 850 HPA TEMPERATURE 10TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE RANGE
IN THE LREF IS ~15C BY 18Z MONDAY).
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR BLUSTERY SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN WANE ON THURSDAY. IT
WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK TO NEAR 20F ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RECOVERING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER AN
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE
PROBABLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THE NEAR THE VIRGINIA-KENTUCKY
BORDER AND COULD ALSO OCCUR IN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S
FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY TURNS A LITTLE MILDER WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, THOUGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN. THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM SATURDAY ONWARD REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL BACK CLOSER TO
FREEZING BY SUNDAY WITH NIGHTS IN THE 10S. SOME FLAKES ARE
POSSIBLE ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE REGION AT THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT 5KT OR LESS. EASTERN KY REMAINS
ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH THIS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE FIRST
6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AND WINDS MAY PICK UP ON RIDGETOPS AND MORE
OPEN TERRAIN LOCATIONS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH 12Z.
AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH. ONCE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION MIXES OUT, SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN
THE 5 TO 15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LESS GUSTY AGAIN TOWARD 00Z AND THERE WILL BE
A THREAT OF LLWS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD, WITH INITIALLY HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES, THOUGH MID AND A FEW LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASINGLY PROBABLE LATE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...JP
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