852
FXUS63 KJKL 131949
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
249 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND MILD WEATHER OCCURS TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID-50S AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
- RAIN BEGINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
MOUNTAINS.
- COLD, WINTRY TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DEPART TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING, WHILE A PAIR OF SOUTHWARD-
DIGGING JET STREAKS UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS CARVE OUT
A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER-MID OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH THEN SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND MID-OHIO VALLEY AS IT EVOLVES INTO AN UPPER LOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW-LEVEL JET, ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LEADING
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY'S BREEZY CONDITIONS, WILL WEAKEN
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DIGGING MID-LEVEL JETS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS HELP FOCUS THE BETTER WARM ADVECTION WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DECREASES IN
STRENGTH AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH, A WELL-DEVELOPED
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT PROVIDING INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AS
WELL AS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THE RESULT WILL BE A BLOSSOMING
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
OHIO VALLEY THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS BETWEEN MIDDAY AND LATE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA, AND THIS TIMING AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MEAN STEADILY FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM THE
LOWER 40S THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE
CRASHING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES PASSING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, RAIN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THROUGH
MID-EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. BLACK MOUNTAIN COULD SEE UP TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BELOW FREEZING
WELL BEFORE SURROUNDING LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALSO OF PARTICULAR
INTEREST AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SUGGESTION OF
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW BAND TO EXTEND FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEASTERN AND PERHAPS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY THURSDAY MORNING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 1 INCH FOR PARTS OF PIKE, LETCHER, AND HARLAN COUNTIES
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL KICK OFF ON A WINTRY NOTE WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AT 00Z THURSDAY SHOWING A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES (SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
FARTHER NORTH THAN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTED JUST A FEW DAYS
AGO). A DUE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, WHERE THE FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE
OVERALL AIR MASS WILL BE DRY WITH JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER AND FLURRY
ACTIVITY. THE BIGGER QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT OUR AREA IS
ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH COMING OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN -- THERE WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AS
WELL AS SOME SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT NARROW STREAM OF LAKE-
ENHANCED MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE BRISK AND TURNING MUCH COLDER AS 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO AROUND -15 TO -16C BY 12Z THURSDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MIDDAY THURSDAY. RAPID HEIGHT RISES FOLLOW
ALOFT WITH A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE LATE IN THE DAY AND ON
THURSDAY NIGHT, WHILE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRUSHES PAST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. TWO OR EVEN THREE MORE REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS IN RAPID SUCCESSION WILL DROP INTO THE PERSISTENT FULL-
LATITUDE PARENT TROUGH FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT,
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES (MAINLY SNOW) ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS MULTIPLE WEAK SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTS PASS. THUS, AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE ON FRIDAY WHEN 850
HPA TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ~-5C, THE AIR MASS WILL COOL OFF
SUBSTANTIALLY, THOUGH THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL VARIATION
WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND THE COLDNESS OF THE SUCCESSIVE SURGES OF
COLDER AIR (THE 850 HPA TEMPERATURE 10TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE RANGE
IN THE LREF IS ~15C BY 18Z MONDAY).
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR BLUSTERY SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN WANE ON THURSDAY. IT
WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK TO NEAR 20F ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND RECOVERING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER AN
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE
PROBABLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THE NEAR THE VIRGINIA-KENTUCKY
BORDER AND COULD ALSO OCCUR IN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S
FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY TURNS A LITTLE MILDER WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, THOUGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN. THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM SATURDAY ONWARD REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL BACK CLOSER TO
FREEZING BY SUNDAY WITH NIGHTS IN THE 10S. SOME FLAKES ARE
POSSIBLE ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW CLOUDS WITH
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND -RA BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR PRIMARILY AFTER 12Z,
AND FURTHER REDUCTIONS TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT SOME
TERMINALS BEFORE THE TAF PERIOD ENDS.
A LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS LEADING TO INCREASINGLY
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AT 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY TOWARD 00Z AND THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME LLWS FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE
EVENING UNTIL THE JET RELAXES SOMEWHAT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...CMC
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