653
FXUS63 KJKL 140110
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
810 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND MILD WEATHER OCCURS TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID-50S AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
- RAIN BEGINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
MOUNTAINS.
- COLD, WINTRY TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 810 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
CLOUDS ARE THICKENING UP FROM THE NNW FASTER THAN WAS FORECAST,
BUT WHERE THEY REMAIN SCARCE, WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF QUICKLY. HAVE MADE NEAR TERM
ADJUSTMENTS FOR ALL THESE FACTORS. THE ONLY CHANGE MADE LATER IN
THE NIGHT WAS TO THE POP. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL MAKE IT AT
LEAST INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY DAWN, AND THE POP WAS
RAISED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DEPART TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING, WHILE A PAIR OF SOUTHWARD-
DIGGING JET STREAKS UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS CARVE OUT
A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER-MID OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH THEN SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND MID-OHIO VALLEY AS IT EVOLVES INTO AN UPPER LOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW-LEVEL JET, ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LEADING
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY'S BREEZY CONDITIONS, WILL WEAKEN
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DIGGING MID-LEVEL JETS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS HELP FOCUS THE BETTER WARM ADVECTION WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DECREASES IN
STRENGTH AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH, A WELL-DEVELOPED
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT PROVIDING INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AS
WELL AS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THE RESULT WILL BE A BLOSSOMING
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
OHIO VALLEY THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS BETWEEN MIDDAY AND LATE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA, AND THIS TIMING AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MEAN STEADILY FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM THE
LOWER 40S THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE
CRASHING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES PASSING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, RAIN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THROUGH
MID-EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. BLACK MOUNTAIN COULD SEE UP TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BELOW FREEZING
WELL BEFORE SURROUNDING LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALSO OF PARTICULAR
INTEREST AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SUGGESTION OF
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW BAND TO EXTEND FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEASTERN AND PERHAPS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY THURSDAY MORNING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 1 INCH FOR PARTS OF PIKE, LETCHER, AND HARLAN COUNTIES
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS ON THURSDAY MORNING, RIGHT AT THE TAIL-
END OF THE SNOW EVENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BE PASSING OVER AND JUST NORTHEAST OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY, AND WE WILL HAVE PRETTY STRONG LONG-WAYS FETCH OF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN, SO NOT GOING TO RULE OUT SOME CONTINUING CLOUDS AND
UPSLOPE FLOW/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL, EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE WINDING DOWN. THIS ISN'T
SHOWING UP SO MUCH IN THE NBM, BUT COULD BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SURGE OF NORTHERLY AIR, IT'S NO SURPRISE THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN
MOST LOCATIONS.
A VERY BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BRIEF WILL BE THE KEY WORD HERE. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN
MOVING BACK IN BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, PREVENTING AN EVEN
COLDER SCENARIO. THIS NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE-TURN-UPPER-LEVEL-LOW THAT WILL BE TRAVELING
AND DIGGING IN THE OVERARCHING TROUGHING PATTERN. MODELS ARE
COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, SHOWING THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING,
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WRAP IN
ON ITSELF THROUGHOUT THE DAY, IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EASTWARD
AND ACROSS KENTUCKY, REINFORCING THE COLD AIR IN PLACE.
THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO WESTERN KY, BUT THEN RETREATING NORTHWARD
AND STAYING MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE
NAM IS A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH IT'S PRECIP POTENTIAL, WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING, BUT DOES HAVE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE NBM SEEMS TO REFLECT MORE OF THE NORTHERN
ROUTE, BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS CHANGE AS WE GET
NEARER TO THE FORECAST.
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM, THE ACTUAL APEX OF THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRAVERSES THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE, UNTIL THE SYSTEM
FINALLY EXITS EASTWARD. THE ECMWF, AND TO SOME DEGREE THE GFS, SHOW
A THIRD SHORTWAVE MONDAY. AGAIN, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE PERIOD, AND EXPECT THE POPS TO
EITHER DECREASE OR INCREASE, AND TIMING AND AMOUNTS TO CHANGE, AS
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. ONE THING IS
FOR SURE, IT'S GOING TO USHER IN EVEN MORE ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
REGION, AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE. WHILE
FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
RUSH, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COLDER, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD, POSSIBLY LOWER ON SOME
NIGHTS DEPENDING ON HOW THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS PLAY OUT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND WILL LAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE NEAR/NORTH OF I-64
AROUND 09Z AND THEN DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TO THE
VA BORDER BY AROUND 20Z. MOST PLACES CAN EXPECT A FURTHER
DETERIORATION TO IFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER STEADY RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVE. THE RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE AIR SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO
BEGIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL
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