939
FXUS63 KJKL 141028
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
528 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND MILD WEATHER OCCURS TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID-50S AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
- RAIN BEGINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
MOUNTAINS.
- COLD, WINTRY TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN FURTHER SOUTH, AND VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE
RESPONDING BY RISING AS CLOUDS ARRIVE. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
IN THE NEAR TERM BASED ON OBS/TRENDS. ELSEWHERE, THERE'S BEEN
LITTLE DROP IN TEMPS DUE TO CLOUDS AND SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS,
AND HAVE RAISED FCST MINS SLIGHTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
CLOUDS ARE THICKENING UP FROM THE NNW FASTER THAN WAS FORECAST,
BUT WHERE THEY REMAIN SCARCE, WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF QUICKLY. HAVE MADE NEAR TERM
ADJUSTMENTS FOR ALL THESE FACTORS. THE ONLY CHANGE MADE LATER IN
THE NIGHT WAS TO THE POP. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL MAKE IT AT
LEAST INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY DAWN, AND THE POP WAS
RAISED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DEPART TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING, WHILE A PAIR OF SOUTHWARD-
DIGGING JET STREAKS UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS CARVE OUT
A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER-MID OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH THEN SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND MID-OHIO VALLEY AS IT EVOLVES INTO AN UPPER LOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW-LEVEL JET, ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LEADING
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY'S BREEZY CONDITIONS, WILL WEAKEN
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DIGGING MID-LEVEL JETS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS HELP FOCUS THE BETTER WARM ADVECTION WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DECREASES IN
STRENGTH AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH, A WELL-DEVELOPED
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT PROVIDING INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AS
WELL AS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THE RESULT WILL BE A BLOSSOMING
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
OHIO VALLEY THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS BETWEEN MIDDAY AND LATE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA, AND THIS TIMING AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MEAN STEADILY FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM THE
LOWER 40S THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE
CRASHING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES PASSING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, RAIN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THROUGH
MID-EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. BLACK MOUNTAIN COULD SEE UP TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BELOW FREEZING
WELL BEFORE SURROUNDING LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALSO OF PARTICULAR
INTEREST AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SUGGESTION OF
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW BAND TO EXTEND FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEASTERN AND PERHAPS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY THURSDAY MORNING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 1 INCH FOR PARTS OF PIKE, LETCHER, AND HARLAN COUNTIES
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE WRAPPING UP WITH A SYSTEM FROM EARLY
THURSDAY, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS EXIT INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA THURSDAY EVENING. CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A COMBINATION OF A LONG-
FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC LIFT UNDER WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SHOULD TAPPER OFF QUICKLY
HEADING LATER INTO THE EVENING, AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK FROM A
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, TO A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF CLEARING
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA.
FRIDAY, A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. WARM AIR WILL OVERRUN THE
AREA, LEADING TO A CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NEAR THE BLUEGRASS AND I-64 CORRIDOR,
AND LOWER TO MID 40S FURTHER SOUTH. WITH HIGHS THIS COLD, IT WONT
TAKE MUCH COOLING HEADING INTO THE EVENING TO DIP INTO THE 30S
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN-SNOW MIX
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. AT CURRENT, A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND 5-8 AM, THIS WILL DIP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS) AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO SNOW AFTER SUNRISE
SATURDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A SECONDARY ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID TEENS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA, KENTUCKY
WILL HAVE LONGER EXPOSURE TO ARCTIC AIR. WHILE QUIET WEATHER REMAINS,
HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH 30, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS LEADING TO TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS AGAIN.
MONDAY, SHOULD BE QUIET FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH TO
MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH.
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST UPWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES IS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACHES THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EVOLVES AND PROGRESSES TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA, THE CRITICAL THICKNESS LINE WILL BE AROUND OR PERHAPS AT TIMES
SPLITTING THROUGH THE CWA, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN HOW THIS UNFOLDS, BUT IT COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE PRECIP TYPES
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
DURING THE DAY, AND TEENS AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND WILL LAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MOST PLACES
CAN EXPECT A FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS
AFTER STEADY RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE. THE RAIN WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE AIR SHOULD
GET COLD ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. STEADY SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF FOR MOST PLACES,
WITH A TRANSITION TO FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING
DURING THE EVENING, ALONG WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ088-118-120.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL
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