204
FXUS63 KJKL 141301
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
801 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION. EXPECT A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF SQUALLS TONIGHT MAY CAUSE SUDDEN, LOW
VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE INCH OR LESS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS YIELDING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED IN PIKE, HARLAN, AND LETCHER COUNTIES
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TOTALS OF THREE TO SEVEN INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ON BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MORE WAVES OF ARCTIC AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OVER
THE JKL CWA EXTENDS FROM ELLIOTT TO ESTILL COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAINFALL AT MOST LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
QUITE MILD, RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH OF I-64 TO NEAR 50 IN
THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS FARTHER SOUTHEAST WHERE MIXING HAS
DISTURBED THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION (A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE
STILL IN THE 30S). THE BAND OF RAIN IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 991 MB SURFACE LOW OVER
INTERIOR QUEBEC TO NEAR DETROIT, MI AND THEN FARTHER SOUTHWEST TO
NEAR ST. LOUIS, MO. A DIGGING 500 HPA TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
FEATURES. THE MOST IMMEDIATE FEATURE FOR OUR WEATHER IS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHICAGO, IL SOUTHWEST TO OVER
OKLAHOMA. THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
AS WELL AS SOME EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BANDED ELEMENTS.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WITH A MORE VIGOROUS ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IS
SITUATED FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO
IOWA. THIS IS ATTENDED AT THE SURFACE BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER QUEBEC TO NEAR
MILWAUKEE, WI ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH AT
500 HPA AS IT DROPS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH 00Z. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE LEADING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 19Z AND 23Z. THE STEADY RAIN BAND WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS
BEHIND THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT AND THE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE
COLUMN WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN (MOSTLY JUST COLD RAIN
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE PERHAPS MIXED WITH SOME FLAKES). THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MORE POTENT 500 HPA VORT MAX WILL BE
CATCHING UP TO THE LEADING FEATURE AND WILL PROPEL ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 22Z AND 02Z. THE SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DECISIVELY DROP THE ENTIRE TEMPERATURE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING AND
CAMS SUGGEST THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A LINE OF STRONGLY
FORCED SNOW SHOWERS (OR A SQUALL). BEHIND THAT SECONDARY BOUNDARY,
THE AIR MASS TURNS DRAMATICALLY COLDER OVERNIGHT WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BETWEEN -15 AND -16C BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE
BIG QUESTION FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT
THE LAKE-EFFECT MOISTURE STREAM FROM LAKE MICHIGAN REACHES INTO
OUR AREA, AS THAT WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE INFLUENCE ON THE EXTENT,
INTENSITY, AND DURATION OF THE SQUALLS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
THE NAM12/NAM NEST AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY,
STEERING THAT MOISTURE PLUME INTO WEST VIRGINIA, LEAVING MAINLY
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA
TONIGHT, TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE RAP13, GFS,
ECMWF, AND HRRR ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINING NORTHERLY ENOUGH FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
MOISTURE PLUME TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND INTERACT
WITH OUR TOPOGRAPHY AT A NEARLY ORTHOGONAL ANGLE, SUPPORTING A
GOOD SETUP OF UPSLOPE SNOWFALL THAT COULD PERSIST WELL INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. IN THE LESS FAVORABLE MOISTURE SCENARIOS,
MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ENDS UP WITH A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF SNOW, EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE VA-KY BORDER WHERE AMOUNTS
COULD RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS IN THE VALLEYS UP TO A FEW INCHES
OVER BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN. IN SITUATIONS WHERE THE MOISTURE FETCH
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN DIRECTLY IMPACTS OUR AREA, MANY LOCATIONS
COULD END UP WITH AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW (ISOLATED HIGHER),
EXCEPT NEAR THE VA-KY BORDER WHERE AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM AN
INCH OR TWO IN VALLEYS UP TO IN EXCESS OF HALF A FOOT OVER BIG
BLACK MOUNTAIN. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL, BRISK WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BLOW THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 10S TO NEAR 20. AS ROAD SURFACES COOL TO AND BELOW
FREEZING, THIS WILL CAUSE ANY LINGERING LIQUID WATER FROM MELTED
SNOW (THAT DOESN'T EVAPORATE) TO POTENTIALLY FREEZE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL AS THE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD 1+ INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM LAKE MICHIGAN IMPACTING OUR AREA, THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING, TAPERING TO SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
~2 PM AND 6 PM. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN ATOP BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO SINK THROUGH THE
40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THE 30S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME
SNOW COULD ALSO MIX IN WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AS
WELL. ANOTHER LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR A SQUALL (POTENTIALLY MIXED
WITH A LITTLE RAIN AT ONSET) REACHES THE I-64 CORRIDOR AROUND 5 PM
AND QUICKLY DIVES SOUTHEAST TO THE VA-KY AND TN-KY BORDER BY ~9
PM. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, SNOW SHOWERS, FLURRIES, AND POSSIBLE
SQUALLS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO
THE 10S TO NEAR 20, EXCEPT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ATOP BIG BLACK
MOUNTAIN. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE SQUALLS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST PERSISTENT AND AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1,500 FEET. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PIKE, HARLAN,
AND LETCHER COUNTIES, WHERE A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED 3 TO 7 INCHES TOTALS FORECAST OVER BIG
BLACK MOUNTAIN. HIGHER TOTALS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
THREE COUNTIES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ARE MOST PERSISTENT.
ON THURSDAY, LOOK FOR A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
TO FLURRIES AND THEN JUST VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. IT WILL BE COLD
AND BLUSTERY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE WRAPPING UP WITH A SYSTEM FROM EARLY
THURSDAY, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS EXIT INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA THURSDAY EVENING. CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A COMBINATION OF A LONG-
FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC LIFT UNDER WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SHOULD TAPPER OFF QUICKLY
HEADING LATER INTO THE EVENING, AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK FROM A
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, TO A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF CLEARING
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA.
FRIDAY, A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. WARM AIR WILL OVERRUN THE
AREA, LEADING TO A CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NEAR THE BLUEGRASS AND I-64 CORRIDOR,
AND LOWER TO MID 40S FURTHER SOUTH. WITH HIGHS THIS COLD, IT WONT
TAKE MUCH COOLING HEADING INTO THE EVENING TO DIP INTO THE 30S
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN-SNOW MIX
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. AT CURRENT, A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND 5-8 AM, THIS WILL DIP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS) AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO SNOW AFTER SUNRISE
SATURDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A SECONDARY ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID TEENS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA, KENTUCKY
WILL HAVE LONGER EXPOSURE TO ARCTIC AIR. WHILE QUIET WEATHER REMAINS,
HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH 30, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS LEADING TO TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS AGAIN.
MONDAY, SHOULD BE QUIET FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH TO
MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH.
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST UPWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES IS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACHES THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EVOLVES AND PROGRESSES TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA, THE CRITICAL THICKNESS LINE WILL BE AROUND OR PERHAPS AT TIMES
SPLITTING THROUGH THE CWA, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN HOW THIS UNFOLDS, BUT IT COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE PRECIP TYPES
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
DURING THE DAY, AND TEENS AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 801 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE AREA AS A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN, NORTHWEST OF SJS-JKL-SME AT TAF ISSUANCE, SETTLES
SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THAT BAND OF RAIN SHOULD
REACH THE VA-KY BORDER BY AROUND 18Z, BRINGING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. THE STEADY RAIN WILL TAPER TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE SYM VICINITY AROUND 19Z TO THE VA-
KY BORDER BY 23Z. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT BRINGS THE THREAT OF A
SNOW SQUALL (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN) AS IT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED SQUALLS COULD LEAD TO BRIEFLY WORSE CONDITIONS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ088-118-120.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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