414
FXUS63 KJKL 141743
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1243 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY AS A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION. EXPECT A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF SQUALLS TONIGHT MAY CAUSE SUDDEN, LOW
VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE INCH OR LESS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS YIELDING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED IN PIKE, HARLAN, AND LETCHER COUNTIES
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TOTALS OF THREE TO SEVEN INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ON BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MORE WAVES OF ARCTIC AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A
COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN
STEADIEST AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS NEARLY COMPLETELY MOISTENED IN
THE LOW LEVELS, SO UPDATED THOSE TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. NO
CHANGES OTHERWISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 816 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
THE LIGHT RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO MAKE VERY SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS AT UPDATE TIME. THAT SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DIMINISHES AND THE FRONT BEGINS TO
MAKE A MORE DETERMINED SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH. THE PREVIOUS THINKING
FROM THE SHORT-TERM AFD IS STILL VALID. THE HOURLY POPS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED THROUGH 18Z TO CAPTURE THE LATEST MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OVER
THE JKL CWA EXTENDS FROM ELLIOTT TO ESTILL COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAINFALL AT MOST LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
QUITE MILD, RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH OF I-64 TO NEAR 50 IN
THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS FARTHER SOUTHEAST WHERE MIXING HAS
DISTURBED THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION (A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE
STILL IN THE 30S). THE BAND OF RAIN IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 991 MB SURFACE LOW OVER
INTERIOR QUEBEC TO NEAR DETROIT, MI AND THEN FARTHER SOUTHWEST TO
NEAR ST. LOUIS, MO. A DIGGING 500 HPA TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
FEATURES. THE MOST IMMEDIATE FEATURE FOR OUR WEATHER IS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHICAGO, IL SOUTHWEST TO OVER
OKLAHOMA. THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
AS WELL AS SOME EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BANDED ELEMENTS.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WITH A MORE VIGOROUS ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IS
SITUATED FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO
IOWA. THIS IS ATTENDED AT THE SURFACE BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER QUEBEC TO NEAR
MILWAUKEE, WI ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH AT
500 HPA AS IT DROPS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH 00Z. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE LEADING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 19Z AND 23Z. THE STEADY RAIN BAND WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS
BEHIND THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT AND THE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE
COLUMN WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN (MOSTLY JUST COLD RAIN
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE PERHAPS MIXED WITH SOME FLAKES). THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MORE POTENT 500 HPA VORT MAX WILL BE
CATCHING UP TO THE LEADING FEATURE AND WILL PROPEL ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 22Z AND 02Z. THE SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DECISIVELY DROP THE ENTIRE TEMPERATURE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING AND
CAMS SUGGEST THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A LINE OF STRONGLY
FORCED SNOW SHOWERS (OR A SQUALL). BEHIND THAT SECONDARY BOUNDARY,
THE AIR MASS TURNS DRAMATICALLY COLDER OVERNIGHT WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BETWEEN -15 AND -16C BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE
BIG QUESTION FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT
THE LAKE-ENHANCED MOISTURE STREAM FROM LAKE MICHIGAN REACHES INTO
OUR AREA, AS THAT WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE INFLUENCE ON THE EXTENT,
INTENSITY, AND DURATION OF THE SQUALLS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
THE NAM12/NAM NEST AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY,
STEERING THAT MOISTURE PLUME INTO WEST VIRGINIA, LEAVING MAINLY
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA
TONIGHT, TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE RAP13, GFS,
ECMWF, AND HRRR ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINING NORTHERLY ENOUGH FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
MOISTURE PLUME TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND INTERACT
WITH OUR TOPOGRAPHY AT A NEARLY ORTHOGONAL ANGLE, SUPPORTING A
GOOD SETUP OF UPSLOPE SNOWFALL THAT COULD PERSIST WELL INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. IN THE LESS FAVORABLE MOISTURE SCENARIOS,
MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ENDS UP WITH A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF SNOW, EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE VA-KY BORDER WHERE AMOUNTS
COULD RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS IN THE VALLEYS UP TO A FEW INCHES
OVER BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN. IN SITUATIONS WHERE THE MOISTURE FETCH
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN DIRECTLY IMPACTS OUR AREA, MANY LOCATIONS
COULD END UP WITH AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW (ISOLATED HIGHER), EXCEPT
NEAR THE VA-KY BORDER WHERE AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM AN INCH OR
TWO IN VALLEYS UP TO IN EXCESS OF HALF A FOOT OVER BIG BLACK
MOUNTAIN. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL, BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BLOW THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
10S TO NEAR 20. AS ROAD SURFACES COOL TO AND BELOW FREEZING, THIS
WILL CAUSE ANY LINGERING LIQUID WATER FROM MELTED SNOW (THAT
DOESN'T EVAPORATE) TO POTENTIALLY FREEZE ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL AS THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THOSE COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
1+ INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE MOISTURE
PLUME FROM LAKE MICHIGAN IMPACTING OUR AREA, THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING, TAPERING TO SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
~2 PM AND 6 PM. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN ATOP BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO SINK THROUGH THE
40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THE 30S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME
SNOW COULD ALSO MIX IN WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AS
WELL. ANOTHER LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR A SQUALL (POTENTIALLY MIXED
WITH A LITTLE RAIN AT ONSET) REACHES THE I-64 CORRIDOR AROUND 5 PM
AND QUICKLY DIVES SOUTHEAST TO THE VA-KY AND TN-KY BORDER BY ~9
PM. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, SNOW SHOWERS, FLURRIES, AND POSSIBLE
SQUALLS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO
THE 10S TO NEAR 20, EXCEPT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ATOP BIG BLACK
MOUNTAIN. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE SQUALLS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST PERSISTENT AND AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1,500 FEET. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PIKE, HARLAN,
AND LETCHER COUNTIES, WHERE A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED 3 TO 7 INCHES TOTALS FORECAST OVER BIG
BLACK MOUNTAIN. HIGHER TOTALS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
THREE COUNTIES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ARE MOST PERSISTENT.
ON THURSDAY, LOOK FOR A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
TO FLURRIES AND THEN JUST VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. IT WILL BE COLD
AND BLUSTERY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE WRAPPING UP WITH A SYSTEM FROM EARLY
THURSDAY, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS EXIT INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA THURSDAY EVENING. CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A COMBINATION OF A LONG-
FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC LIFT UNDER WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SHOULD TAPPER OFF QUICKLY
HEADING LATER INTO THE EVENING, AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK FROM A
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, TO A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF CLEARING
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA.
FRIDAY, A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. WARM AIR WILL OVERRUN THE
AREA, LEADING TO A CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NEAR THE BLUEGRASS AND I-64 CORRIDOR,
AND LOWER TO MID 40S FURTHER SOUTH. WITH HIGHS THIS COLD, IT WONT
TAKE MUCH COOLING HEADING INTO THE EVENING TO DIP INTO THE 30S
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN-SNOW MIX
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. AT CURRENT, A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND 5-8 AM, THIS WILL DIP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS) AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO SNOW AFTER SUNRISE
SATURDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A SECONDARY ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID TEENS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA, KENTUCKY
WILL HAVE LONGER EXPOSURE TO ARCTIC AIR. WHILE QUIET WEATHER REMAINS,
HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH 30, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS LEADING TO TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS AGAIN.
MONDAY, SHOULD BE QUIET FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH TO
MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH.
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST UPWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES IS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACHES THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EVOLVES AND PROGRESSES TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA, THE CRITICAL THICKNESS LINE WILL BE AROUND OR PERHAPS AT TIMES
SPLITTING THROUGH THE CWA, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN HOW THIS UNFOLDS, BUT IT COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE PRECIP TYPES
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
DURING THE DAY, AND TEENS AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF
STRATIFORM RAIN, WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING AS RAIN CHANGES OVER TO CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS (OR SQUALLS) BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR OR
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 02Z-03Z. GENERALLY LOW-VFR OR PERHAPS
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SQUALLS COULD LEAD TO BRIEFLY WORSE
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 12 KTS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KT. WHILE THE GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ088-118-120.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
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