677
FXUS63 KJKL 141906
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
206 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS A
PAIR OF COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION. EXPECT A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF SQUALLS TONIGHT MAY CAUSE SUDDEN, LOW
VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE INCH OR LESS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS YIELDING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED IN PIKE, HARLAN, AND LETCHER COUNTIES
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TOTALS OF THREE TO SEVEN INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ON BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MORE WAVES OF ARCTIC AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A COLD FRONT ALOFT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. WARM
ADVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT MAY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE ONGOING
WEATHER EVENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS MENTIONED BEFORE, WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING
THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE EVENING AND A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING INTO THE REGION. FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
EITHER, WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS TOWARD BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES
LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SNOW BAND (OR BANDS) WITH MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL OUTSIDE
OF SNOW BANDS THERE IS STILL THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING THAT COULD CAUSE BRIEF MINOR
ACCUMULATION AND VISIBILITY ISSUES GIVEN THERE WILL BE FORCING
FROM PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES.
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THURSDAY, WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA. WINDS TRANSITION TO A
LIGHTER AND MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION COMMENCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS AT
LEAST INITIALLY ALONG WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION WOULD SUGGEST GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER TEENS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS, WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS OTHERWISE. SOME
MODELS/CAMS ARE SUGGESTING A DISTURBANCE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE WRAPPING UP WITH A SYSTEM FROM EARLY
THURSDAY, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS EXIT INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA THURSDAY EVENING. CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A COMBINATION OF A LONG-
FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC LIFT UNDER WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SHOULD TAPPER OFF QUICKLY
HEADING LATER INTO THE EVENING, AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK FROM A
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, TO A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF CLEARING
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA.
FRIDAY, A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. WARM AIR WILL OVERRUN THE
AREA, LEADING TO A CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NEAR THE BLUEGRASS AND I-64 CORRIDOR,
AND LOWER TO MID 40S FURTHER SOUTH. WITH HIGHS THIS COLD, IT WONT
TAKE MUCH COOLING HEADING INTO THE EVENING TO DIP INTO THE 30S
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN-SNOW MIX
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. AT CURRENT, A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND 5-8 AM, THIS WILL DIP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS) AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO SNOW AFTER SUNRISE
SATURDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A SECONDARY ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID TEENS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA, KENTUCKY
WILL HAVE LONGER EXPOSURE TO ARCTIC AIR. WHILE QUIET WEATHER REMAINS,
HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH 30, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS LEADING TO TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS AGAIN.
MONDAY, SHOULD BE QUIET FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH TO
MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH.
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST UPWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES IS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACHES THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EVOLVES AND PROGRESSES TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA, THE CRITICAL THICKNESS LINE WILL BE AROUND OR PERHAPS AT TIMES
SPLITTING THROUGH THE CWA, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN HOW THIS UNFOLDS, BUT IT COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE PRECIP TYPES
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
DURING THE DAY, AND TEENS AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF
STRATIFORM RAIN, WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING AS RAIN CHANGES OVER TO CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS (OR SQUALLS) BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR OR
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 02Z-03Z. GENERALLY LOW-VFR OR PERHAPS
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SQUALLS COULD LEAD TO BRIEFLY WORSE
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 12 KTS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KT. WHILE THE GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
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