954
FXUS63 KJKL 141917
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
217 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS A
PAIR OF COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION. EXPECT A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF SQUALLS TONIGHT MAY CAUSE SUDDEN, LOW
VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE INCH OR LESS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS YIELDING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED IN PIKE, HARLAN, AND LETCHER COUNTIES
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TOTALS OF THREE TO SEVEN INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ON BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MORE WAVES OF ARCTIC AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A COLD FRONT ALOFT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. WARM
ADVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT MAY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE ONGOING
WEATHER EVENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS MENTIONED BEFORE, WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING
THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE EVENING AND A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING INTO THE REGION. FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
EITHER, WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS TOWARD BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES
LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SNOW BAND (OR BANDS) WITH MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL OUTSIDE
OF SNOW BANDS THERE IS STILL THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING THAT COULD CAUSE BRIEF MINOR
ACCUMULATION AND VISIBILITY ISSUES GIVEN THERE WILL BE FORCING
FROM PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES.
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THURSDAY, WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA. WINDS TRANSITION TO A
LIGHTER AND MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION COMMENCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS AT
LEAST INITIALLY ALONG WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION WOULD SUGGEST GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER TEENS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS, WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS OTHERWISE. SOME
MODELS/CAMS ARE SUGGESTING A DISTURBANCE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH TRANSITORY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AND
SLIGHT RIDGING BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE LEADING TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST AS THE SUBSEQUENT TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. A CLOSED CIRCULATION, POSITIONED WITHIN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN EMBEDDED JET STREAK, WILL SUPPORT A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS
FEATURE WILL EJECT EASTWARD, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
INITIAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW;
HOWEVER, DIURNAL WARMING AND LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN RAIN AT THE ONSET. AS TEMPERATURES FALL AND FLOW VEERS
WESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL COOL
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW. FORTUNATELY, THE LACK
OF A PROMINENT WARM NOSE OR SIGNIFICANT WARM-AIR INTRUSION
SIMPLIFIES PRECIPITATION TYPES, RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX, AND FINALLY TO ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. WHILE AN SPS MAY SUFFICE FOR MOST AREAS, A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG
THE VIRGINIA BORDER.
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS LATE SUNDAY, COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION, USHERING IN MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS
LARGELY QUIET FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A NOR’EASTER WILL DEVELOP AND PHASE WITH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS CIRCULATION,
BRIEF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, A DISTURBANCE TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL SHUNT THE COASTAL SYSTEM
FURTHER OUT TO SEA AND BRING A RESURGENCE OF COLD, DRY AIR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL, THE ACTIVE PERIOD FEATURES A SERIES OF PASSING DISTURBANCES
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE INITIAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN FRIDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW.
BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE,
MAINTAINING DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF
STRATIFORM RAIN, WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING AS RAIN CHANGES OVER TO CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS (OR SQUALLS) BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR OR
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 02Z-03Z. GENERALLY LOW-VFR OR PERHAPS
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SQUALLS COULD LEAD TO BRIEFLY WORSE
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 12 KTS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KT. WHILE THE GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ088-118-
120.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC
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