145
FXUS63 KJKL 151005
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
505 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS A
PAIR OF COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION. EXPECT A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF SQUALLS TONIGHT MAY CAUSE SUDDEN, LOW
VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE INCH OR LESS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS YIELDING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED IN PIKE, HARLAN, AND LETCHER COUNTIES
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TOTALS OF THREE TO SEVEN INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ON BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MORE WAVES OF ARCTIC AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE 20 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING AS THERMOMETERS SETTLE INTO THE
UPPER 10S AND LOW 20S. FLURRIES AND A FEW LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY OVER THE BIG SANDY BASIN. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE STRONGEST SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE LAKE MICHIGAN
MOISTURE FETCH, WHICH REMAINED NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA. AT THE BROADER LEVEL, A HIGH-
AMPLITUDE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND THE
PARENT 500 HPA LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY PIVOT FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY, TAKING THE LINGERING
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WITH IT. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE QUICKLY FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL FOSTER PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS
TO DEVELOP BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE AS ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITHIN THE MEAN PARENT TROUGH) DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE SURFACE LOW REFLECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE TO NEAR GAYLORD, MI
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 00Z SATURDAY. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT JET
WILL BEGIN FEEDING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF
THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE WAA FROM ACTUALLY REACHING THE
GROUND UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING (THOUGH A FEW FLURRIES OR A TOUCH OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW (10-20% CHANCE) CANNOT BE RULED OUT). IT WILL
TURN QUITE BREEZY ON FRIDAY AS WELL; BUFKIT MIXED LAYER MOMENTUM
TRANSFER FROM THE GFS REACHES FROM 25 TO 30 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES TO GRADUALLY END TODAY, LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE VA-KY BORDER. IT WILL BE BRISK AND COLD WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE MID TO AROUND 30F
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WITH A COLD NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE AT 5
TO 10 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. FOR TONIGHT, PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 10S IN THE COLDEST SOUTHEASTERN HOLLOWS TO NEAR 20F ON THE
THERMAL BELT RIDGETOPS. IT WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY ON
FRIDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE WINDS
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH. THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH
EARLY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH TRANSITORY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AND
SLIGHT RIDGING BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE LEADING TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST AS THE SUBSEQUENT TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. A CLOSED CIRCULATION, POSITIONED WITHIN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN EMBEDDED JET STREAK, WILL SUPPORT A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS
FEATURE WILL EJECT EASTWARD, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
INITIAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW;
HOWEVER, DIURNAL WARMING AND LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN RAIN AT THE ONSET. AS TEMPERATURES FALL AND FLOW VEERS
WESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL COOL
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW. FORTUNATELY, THE LACK
OF A PROMINENT WARM NOSE OR SIGNIFICANT WARM-AIR INTRUSION
SIMPLIFIES PRECIPITATION TYPES, RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX, AND FINALLY TO ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. WHILE AN SPS MAY SUFFICE FOR MOST AREAS, A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG
THE VIRGINIA BORDER.
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS LATE SUNDAY, COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION, USHERING IN MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS
LARGELY QUIET FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A NOR’EASTER WILL DEVELOP AND PHASE WITH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS CIRCULATION,
BRIEF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, A DISTURBANCE TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL SHUNT THE COASTAL SYSTEM
FURTHER OUT TO SEA AND BRING A RESURGENCE OF COLD, DRY AIR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL, THE ACTIVE PERIOD FEATURES A SERIES OF PASSING DISTURBANCES
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE INITIAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN FRIDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW.
BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE,
MAINTAINING DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
CONDITIONS WERE MAINLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR AT TAF ISSUANCE.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE ONGOING, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KY,
WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
THE SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
MORNING, AND WILL BE THE MOST PERSISTENT IN SOUTHEAST KY.
IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE
OF SOUTHEAST KY, AND IN SOUTHEAST KY BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
118-120.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...HAL
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