403
FXUS63 KJKL 151611
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1111 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END TODAY. LITTLE
TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, BUT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER MAY SEE LINGERING ACTIVITY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY
WARM INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT SUDDEN VISIBILITY DROPS AND SLICK
ROADS AS RAIN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONS TO SNOW.
- A SECONDARY PUSH OF POLAR AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW FREEZING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
ADDED SOME LOW-END POPS TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST THROUGH ~22Z THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES, AS IT APPEARS THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL IN A BRIEF UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THESE
AREAS, BASED ON SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE RAP AND THE GFS.
ALSO EXPANDED COVERAGE OF FLURRIES THROUGH THAT TIME BASED ON
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROFILES AND THE ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE
PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 803 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
JUST A FEW FLURRIES LINGER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AT UPDATE TIME.
THOSE MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
NEAR THE VA-KY BORDER. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE COLD WITH A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. THE HOURLY FORECAST HAS BEEN
BLENDED TOWARD WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE 20 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING AS THERMOMETERS SETTLE INTO THE
UPPER 10S AND LOW 20S. FLURRIES AND A FEW LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY OVER THE BIG SANDY BASIN. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE STRONGEST SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE LAKE MICHIGAN
MOISTURE FETCH, WHICH REMAINED NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA. AT THE BROADER LEVEL, A HIGH-
AMPLITUDE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND THE
PARENT 500 HPA LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY PIVOT FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY, TAKING THE LINGERING
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WITH IT. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE QUICKLY FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL FOSTER PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS
TO DEVELOP BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE AS ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITHIN THE MEAN PARENT TROUGH) DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE SURFACE LOW REFLECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE TO NEAR GAYLORD, MI
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD 00Z SATURDAY. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT JET
WILL BEGIN FEEDING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF
THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE WAA FROM ACTUALLY REACHING THE
GROUND UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING (THOUGH A FEW FLURRIES OR A TOUCH OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW (10-20% CHANCE) CANNOT BE RULED OUT). IT WILL
TURN QUITE BREEZY ON FRIDAY AS WELL; BUFKIT MIXED LAYER MOMENTUM
TRANSFER FROM THE GFS REACHES FROM 25 TO 30 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES TO GRADUALLY END TODAY, LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE VA-KY BORDER. IT WILL BE BRISK AND COLD WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE MID TO AROUND 30F
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WITH A COLD NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE AT 5
TO 10 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. FOR TONIGHT, PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 10S IN THE COLDEST SOUTHEASTERN HOLLOWS TO NEAR 20F ON THE
THERMAL BELT RIDGETOPS. IT WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY ON
FRIDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE WINDS
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH. THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH
EARLY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
A HIGH AMPLIFIED PATTERN HAS EMERGED OVER THE CONUS. ANALYZING 500-
MB HEIGHTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA OVER THE
WESTERN US, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH SPILLS SOUTH FROM MANITOBA AND
WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH, LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION, FRIDAY EVENING.
MODELS HAVE SOME DISPARITY OVER WHEN FRONTAL PASSAGES WORK THEIR WAY
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY IN PART DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN VORTICITY
PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING, ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY, THOUGH LOW LEVELS WILL BE A TAD DRY
AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY WET-BULB DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO THE COLUMN COOLING AND A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN-SNOW MIX THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW SHOULD HAPPEN A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO SUNRISE (BEFORE 7 AM), WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY HAVE SOME SNOW SQUALL CHARACTERISTICS AND WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ALONG THE TROUGHS AXIS. COLD AIR WILL BE RE-
ENFORCED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SUNDAY NOT GETTING ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK. SUNDAY NIGHT, SKIES CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COMES OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON
SUNDAY, PROGRESSES EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MAY MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY, BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MAY
STOP IT FROM TRULY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST. WARMER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT IN BEYOND TUESDAY.
SCATTERED PRECIP CHANCES MAY EXIST AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, BUT ENSEMBLE AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT AT THIS POINT
OF OUTCOME.
FRIDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. HEADING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT THE MULTIPLE FRONTS WERE MENTIONED ABOVE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR, AND MID TO UPPER 20S SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT, VALLEYS MAY
DECOUPLE HEADING INTO THE EVENING. THIS WOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOW DOUBLE DIGITS (10-13 DEGREES) IN THE VALLEYS
AND MID TO UPPER TEENS ALONG RIDGE TOPS. MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO TUE UPPER 20S ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH.
SKIES CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW DOUBLE DIGITS (8-13 DEGREES) IN MOST SPOTS.
TUESDAY REMAINS BELOW FREEZING WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 20S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 20S SOUTH. AT
NIGHT, TEENS WILL RETURN AHEAD OF SOME WARM AIR ADVECTING BACK INTO
THE AREA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE MARKED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO UPPER 40S, AND LOWS MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
THE MIXED HIGH MVFR AND LOW VFR CEILINGS AT MOST TERMINALS EAST
OF I-75 THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND THIN OUT
TODAY AS THE LAST SNOW FLURRIES BECOME CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE KY-VA BORDER BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A PERIOD OF
PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRUSHES TO OUR SOUTH. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THROUGH 18Z WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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