635
FXUS63 KJKL 151935
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
235 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END BY SUNSET.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY
WARM INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT SUDDEN VISIBILITY DROPS AND SLICK
ROADS AS RAIN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONS TO SNOW.
- A SECONDARY PUSH OF POLAR AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW FREEZING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST OF THE AREA BY ~22Z THIS
AFTERNOON, AND ANY LINGERING FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
RAPIDLY DIMINISH, WITH CLEARING SKIES HEADING INTO THE EVENING. WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRUSHING THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH, EXPECT A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THAT WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS, WITH UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLDEST SPOTS.
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY AS WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS TO STEADILY INCREASE WITH ANOTHER SERIES OF SYSTEMS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, BUT REALLY NO MORE THAN FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. WITH INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S WITH SOUTHWEST
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, LOW-LEVEL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WILL BE RIGHT AT
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR RAIN/SNOW, MAKING FOR A SOMEWHAT TRICKY
FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE AS WELL AS ANY
POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WOULD EXPECT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
FAVOR MORE SNOW THAN RAIN, AS WELL AS THOSE AREAS THAT SEE A
HEAVIER INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
TEMPERATURE TO MORE LIKELY FALL TO THE WET-BULB TEMPERATURE. THUS,
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR 1 INCH OR MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY WOULD BE HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES,
POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO IMMEDIATE ADJACENT COUNTIES/AREAS. WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AND OTHER AREAS WITH
FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY FALL TO
WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF THE FREEZING MARK.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
A HIGH AMPLIFIED PATTERN HAS EMERGED OVER THE CONUS. ANALYZING 500-
MB HEIGHTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA OVER THE
WESTERN US, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH SPILLS SOUTH FROM MANITOBA AND
WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH, LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION, FRIDAY EVENING.
MODELS HAVE SOME DISPARITY OVER WHEN FRONTAL PASSAGES WORK THEIR WAY
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY IN PART DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN VORTICITY
PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING, ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY, THOUGH LOW LEVELS WILL BE A TAD DRY
AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY WET-BULB DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO THE COLUMN COOLING AND A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN-SNOW MIX THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW SHOULD HAPPEN A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO SUNRISE (BEFORE 7 AM), WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY HAVE SOME SNOW SQUALL CHARACTERISTICS AND WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ALONG THE TROUGHS AXIS. COLD AIR WILL BE RE-
ENFORCED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SUNDAY NOT GETTING ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK. SUNDAY NIGHT, SKIES CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COMES OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON
SUNDAY, PROGRESSES EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MAY MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY, BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MAY
STOP IT FROM TRULY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST. WARMER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT IN BEYOND TUESDAY.
SCATTERED PRECIP CHANCES MAY EXIST AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, BUT ENSEMBLE AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT AT THIS POINT
OF OUTCOME.
FRIDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. HEADING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT THE MULTIPLE FRONTS WERE MENTIONED ABOVE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR, AND MID TO UPPER 20S SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT, VALLEYS MAY
DECOUPLE HEADING INTO THE EVENING. THIS WOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOW DOUBLE DIGITS (10-13 DEGREES) IN THE VALLEYS
AND MID TO UPPER TEENS ALONG RIDGE TOPS. MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO TUE UPPER 20S ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH.
SKIES CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW DOUBLE DIGITS (8-13 DEGREES) IN MOST SPOTS.
TUESDAY REMAINS BELOW FREEZING WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 20S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 20S SOUTH. AT
NIGHT, TEENS WILL RETURN AHEAD OF SOME WARM AIR ADVECTING BACK INTO
THE AREA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE MARKED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO UPPER 40S, AND LOWS MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
A BRIEF ENHANCEMENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH ~21Z-22Z THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
THEREAFTER INTO THE EVENING. CIGS WILL MOSTLY BE LOW-VFR BUT MAY
OCCASIONALLY DIP INTO HIGH-MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. A
PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRUSHES TO OUR SOUTH. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THROUGH ~20Z WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY MORNING AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 8 TO 12
KTS AND GUSTS INCREASING TO ~20 KTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT, AND IMPACTING KSYM, KSME, AND
KLOZ. LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY,
BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
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