164
FXUS63 KJKL 160102
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
802 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END BY SUNSET.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY
WARM INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH CHANCES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.
- EXPECT SUDDEN VISIBILITY DROPS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS AND
SLICK ROADS AS RAIN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONS TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 802 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXTENSIVE OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING, AND THIS HAS SLOWED THE FALL OF
TEMPERATURES. THE CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
HAVE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE ITEMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST OF THE AREA BY ~22Z THIS
AFTERNOON, AND ANY LINGERING FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
RAPIDLY DIMINISH, WITH CLEARING SKIES HEADING INTO THE EVENING. WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRUSHING THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH, EXPECT A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THAT WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS, WITH UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLDEST SPOTS.
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY AS WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS TO STEADILY INCREASE WITH ANOTHER SERIES OF SYSTEMS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, BUT REALLY NO MORE THAN FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. WITH INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S WITH SOUTHWEST
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, LOW-LEVEL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WILL BE RIGHT AT
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR RAIN/SNOW, MAKING FOR A SOMEWHAT TRICKY
FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE AS WELL AS ANY
POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WOULD EXPECT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
FAVOR MORE SNOW THAN RAIN, AS WELL AS THOSE AREAS THAT SEE A
HEAVIER INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
TEMPERATURE TO MORE LIKELY FALL TO THE WET-BULB TEMPERATURE. THUS,
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR 1 INCH OR MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY WOULD BE HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES,
POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO IMMEDIATE ADJACENT COUNTIES/AREAS. WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AND OTHER AREAS WITH
FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY FALL TO
WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF THE FREEZING MARK.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AT THAT TIME WITH ONE
EXTENDING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO BE OVER OR NEARING THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW INITIALLY CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN
MI/UP OF MI VICINITY AND AN INITIAL COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO GULF. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED TO BE MOVING ACROSS MI TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AT THAT
TIME IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD DEPART TO THE NORTH AND EAST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WHILE THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
VICINITY SHOULD WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE MAIN 500 MB TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, LIKELY PRECEDED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR
TWO. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS EASTERN KY ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS, WHILE THE SFC LOW MOVES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS SECTIONS OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
TOWARD THE MARITIMES. THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS TO NEAR THE BC COAST THIS WEEKEND.
SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND THIS RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
FROM CANADA AND INTO SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS/MS VALLEY,
LEADING TO REINFORCEMENT OF UPPER TROUGHING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE MS
VALLEY TO LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TO END THE WEEKEND. YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHOULD PRECEDE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO
THE WEST OF THE COMMONWEALTH AND APPROACH EASTERN KY AS THE WEEKEND
ENDS.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY BE IN -5C TO -8C RANGE
AS THE PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY, AND GENERALLY HAVE A COOLING TREND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY
DROPPING INTO ABOUT THE -10C TO -15C RANGE. SOME MODERATION IN 850MB
TEMPS OCCURS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT DURING A PERIOD OF
HEIGHT RISES/ SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE COOLING ALOFT AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES AT TIMES ON SATURDAY. A SNOW SQUALL OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EITHER PARTICULARLY NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DIMINISHES SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THAT SFC HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WHEN THE NEXT RATHER MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT BEGINS TO NEAR.
MONDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT, THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS FOR UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING TO PERSIST FROM CANADA INTO SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS, BUT BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME DOWNSTREAM OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. BEHIND THE
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO END THE WEEKEND/EARLY IN THE NEW WORK
WEEK, A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FROM THE PLAINS/CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO SOUTHEAST CONUS AS MIDWEEK NEARS.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP A BIT COLDER THAN THIS
WEEKEND TOWARD AT LEAST THE -15C LEVEL OR SO IF NOT COLDER AS THE
00Z LREF ENSEMBLE MEANS BOTTOM OUT 850 MB TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
TO EARLY TUESDAY IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE. A PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES
ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO RISE
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AND ARE PROBABLE TO
HOLD IN THE 20S IN THE MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS. FOLLOWING A NIGHT OF
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO, MOST LOCATIONS WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 20S ON TUESDAY AS WELL. SOME DEGREE OF
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS ARE ALSO FAVORED IN THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME OF
THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS COULD END UP COLDER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE DRY WITH
THAT TREND LINGERING INTO MIDWEEK.
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER, UNSETTLED WEATHER, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAT THE COLD AIRMASS WILL RETREAT
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT MIDWEEK AND
TEMPERATURES TREND MILDER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 802 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SNOW MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY EVENING, BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL
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