047
FXUS63 KJKL 160940
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
440 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STRONG WINDS DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM INTO THE
40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOP TONIGHT, WITH
CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE DAY, SATURDAY.
- EXPECT SUDDEN VISIBILITY DROPS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS AND
SLICK ROADS AS RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
09Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WHILE A MOSTLY DRY WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST -
TIED TO DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR IN EASTERN KENTUCKY, LVX RADAR IS SHOWING SOME
HEALTHY RETURNS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT THE MOMENT, BUT
LITTLE EVIDENCE THAT ANY OF THE WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW IS MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND FROM THIS - DUE TO A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. CURRENTLY,
TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE IN THE NORTHEAST
SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST (AND SOME
OF THE EASTERN THERMAL RIDGES). MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THEY ALL DEPICT A FLATTENING OF THE 5H PATTERN OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY IN BETWEEN TWO NEGATIVE ANOMALIES PIVOTING THROUGH THE
BROADER AREA OF TROUGHING COVERING THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CONTINENT. THE TRAILING NODE DEEPENS LATER TODAY AND PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AND A BAND OF
MID LEVEL ENERGY THAT SLOWLY PRESSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE BRINGS SOME HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH IT BUT
NO REAL SURGE SOUTHEAST UNTIL AFTER SATURDAY WHEN IT BECOMES A
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AND DIGS THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RATHER
SMALL SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS SUPPORTED USING THE NBM AS THE
STARTING POINT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
TO INCLUDE MORE DETAILS FROM THE LATEST CAMS MODELS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT A WARM UP
WILL ENSUE THANKS FOR INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A
WARM FRONT PASSING THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY YET BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME INSIGNIFICANT PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA BEFORE NOON BUT MOST PLACES STAY DRY. BREEZY
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD RESULT IN GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON - AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL MOISTEN
UP QUICKLY INTO THE EVENING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING INITIALLY ALONG
THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL HELP
TO WETBULB SOME OF THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR SNOW - MIXING IN EARLIER
AND CHANGING OVER COMPLETELY FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WORKING
INTO THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAINLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE JKL CWA TONIGHT WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM WHILE MAINLY JUST THE RIDGES PICK UP
SOME SLUSHY SNOW INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO TWO
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES - INCLUDING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER BUT ALSO OR SOUTHWEST BELL
COUNTY, LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-64, AND SOME HIGHER SPOTS IN JACKSON
COUNTY. SOME OF THE CAMS DO PRINT OUT AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES IN
VARIOUS STRIPES THROUGH THE CWA, BUT LEAVES THE REST OF THE AREA
ALMOST ENTIRELY ACCUMULATION FREE. JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WILL MAKE
A HUGE DIFFERENCE FOR THE PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATIONS SO IT BEARS
CLOSE WATCHING. THE INITIAL SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT, BUT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS LOOK
TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY, SATURDAY DUE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE
SHOWING UP AND DECENT SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS. STILL A LOT OF
QUESTIONS WITH THIS FORECAST WITH THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE TONIGHT. ACCORDINGLY, AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT WX CONCERNS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT PRIMARILY CONSISTED OF
INCLUDING MORE DETAILS FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION CAMS CONSENSUS
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN LINE WITH THE NBM.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AT THAT TIME WITH ONE
EXTENDING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO BE OVER OR NEARING THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW INITIALLY CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN
MI/UP OF MI VICINITY AND AN INITIAL COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO GULF. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED TO BE MOVING ACROSS MI TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AT THAT
TIME IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD DEPART TO THE NORTH AND EAST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WHILE THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
VICINITY SHOULD WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE MAIN 500 MB TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, LIKELY PRECEDED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR
TWO. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS EASTERN KY ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS, WHILE THE SFC LOW MOVES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS SECTIONS OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
TOWARD THE MARITIMES. THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS TO NEAR THE BC COAST THIS WEEKEND.
SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND THIS RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
FROM CANADA AND INTO SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS/MS VALLEY,
LEADING TO REINFORCEMENT OF UPPER TROUGHING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE MS
VALLEY TO LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TO END THE WEEKEND. YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHOULD PRECEDE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO
THE WEST OF THE COMMONWEALTH AND APPROACH EASTERN KY AS THE WEEKEND
ENDS.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY BE IN -5C TO -8C RANGE
AS THE PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY, AND GENERALLY HAVE A COOLING TREND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY
DROPPING INTO ABOUT THE -10C TO -15C RANGE. SOME MODERATION IN 850MB
TEMPS OCCURS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT DURING A PERIOD OF
HEIGHT RISES/ SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE COOLING ALOFT AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES AT TIMES ON SATURDAY. A SNOW SQUALL OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EITHER PARTICULARLY NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DIMINISHES SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THAT SFC HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WHEN THE NEXT RATHER MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT BEGINS TO NEAR.
MONDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT, THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS FOR UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING TO PERSIST FROM CANADA INTO SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS, BUT BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME DOWNSTREAM OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. BEHIND THE
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO END THE WEEKEND/EARLY IN THE NEW WORK
WEEK, A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FROM THE PLAINS/CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO SOUTHEAST CONUS AS MIDWEEK NEARS.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP A BIT COLDER THAN THIS
WEEKEND TOWARD AT LEAST THE -15C LEVEL OR SO IF NOT COLDER AS THE
00Z LREF ENSEMBLE MEANS BOTTOM OUT 850 MB TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
TO EARLY TUESDAY IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE. A PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES
ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO RISE
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AND ARE PROBABLE TO
HOLD IN THE 20S IN THE MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS. FOLLOWING A NIGHT OF
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO, MOST LOCATIONS WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 20S ON TUESDAY AS WELL. SOME DEGREE OF
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS ARE ALSO FAVORED IN THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME OF
THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS COULD END UP COLDER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE DRY WITH
THAT TREND LINGERING INTO MIDWEEK.
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER, UNSETTLED WEATHER, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAT THE COLD AIRMASS WILL RETREAT
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT MIDWEEK AND
TEMPERATURES TREND MILDER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW, IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. ALONG WITH THIS
WILL COME A REDUCTION TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS, PROBABLY
BISECTING THE JKL FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL
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