650
FXUS63 KJKL 161423
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
923 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STRONG WINDS DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM INTO THE
40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOP TONIGHT, WITH
CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE DAY, SATURDAY.
- EXPECT SUDDEN VISIBILITY DROPS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS AND
SLICK ROADS AS RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 923 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
REMOVED WHAT LITTLE MENTION THERE WAS OF FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT
SNOW FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS NO
INDICATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN
ANTECEDENT LOW- LEVEL DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
09Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WHILE A MOSTLY DRY WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST -
TIED TO DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR IN EASTERN KENTUCKY, LVX RADAR IS SHOWING SOME
HEALTHY RETURNS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT THE MOMENT, BUT
LITTLE EVIDENCE THAT ANY OF THE WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW IS MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND FROM THIS - DUE TO A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. CURRENTLY,
TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE IN THE NORTHEAST
SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST (AND SOME
OF THE EASTERN THERMAL RIDGES). MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THEY ALL DEPICT A FLATTENING OF THE 5H PATTERN OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY IN BETWEEN TWO NEGATIVE ANOMALIES PIVOTING THROUGH THE
BROADER AREA OF TROUGHING COVERING THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CONTINENT. THE TRAILING NODE DEEPENS LATER TODAY AND PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AND A BAND OF
MID LEVEL ENERGY THAT SLOWLY PRESSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE BRINGS SOME HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH IT BUT
NO REAL SURGE SOUTHEAST UNTIL AFTER SATURDAY WHEN IT BECOMES A
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AND DIGS THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RATHER
SMALL SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS SUPPORTED USING THE NBM AS THE
STARTING POINT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
TO INCLUDE MORE DETAILS FROM THE LATEST CAMS MODELS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT A WARM UP
WILL ENSUE THANKS FOR INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A
WARM FRONT PASSING THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY YET BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME INSIGNIFICANT PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA BEFORE NOON BUT MOST PLACES STAY DRY. BREEZY
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD RESULT IN GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON - AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL MOISTEN
UP QUICKLY INTO THE EVENING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING INITIALLY ALONG
THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL HELP
TO WETBULB SOME OF THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR SNOW - MIXING IN EARLIER
AND CHANGING OVER COMPLETELY FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WORKING
INTO THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAINLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE JKL CWA TONIGHT WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM WHILE MAINLY JUST THE RIDGES PICK UP
SOME SLUSHY SNOW INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO TWO
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES - INCLUDING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER BUT ALSO OR SOUTHWEST BELL
COUNTY, LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-64, AND SOME HIGHER SPOTS IN JACKSON
COUNTY. SOME OF THE CAMS DO PRINT OUT AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES IN
VARIOUS STRIPES THROUGH THE CWA, BUT LEAVES THE REST OF THE AREA
ALMOST ENTIRELY ACCUMULATION FREE. JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WILL MAKE
A HUGE DIFFERENCE FOR THE PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATIONS SO IT BEARS
CLOSE WATCHING. THE INITIAL SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT, BUT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS LOOK
TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY, SATURDAY DUE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE
SHOWING UP AND DECENT SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS. STILL A LOT OF
QUESTIONS WITH THIS FORECAST WITH THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE TONIGHT. ACCORDINGLY, AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT WX CONCERNS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT PRIMARILY CONSISTED OF
INCLUDING MORE DETAILS FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION CAMS CONSENSUS
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN LINE WITH THE NBM.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN
TO RULE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. LATE THIS WEEKEND, SHARPER RIDGING WILL BE ALIGNED FROM
ALASKA THROUGH THE WEST COAST, WHILE DEEPER TROUGHING IS POSITIONED
FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. INBOUND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE
THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, SECURING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE
TROUGH WILL BROADEN A BIT, WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES NOSING IN
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY
NIGHT, MAINTAINING SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY, WITH SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING
ALIGNED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND LESSENING CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL CRUISE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WITH A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT FOLLOWING SUIT AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS, BUT THE LOW
LEVELS LOOK TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHEN TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BETWEEN
15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH RETURN FLOW ENSUING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH A RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH POPS ONLY PEAKING AT AROUND 30%
FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW, THEN DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING SPREADING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.
ALONG WITH THIS, WILL COME A REDUCTION TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
SETTING IN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO MID
MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL THEN BACK OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF
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