435
FXUS63 KJKL 161944
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
244 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DEVELOPING AREA OF RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING WILL MIX WITH AND
THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LATER TONIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP 2 INCHES.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT,
WITH CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.
- EXPECT SUDDEN VISIBILITY DROPS IN SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
A LARGE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL
PUSH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BEFORE THE TROUGH
AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO
CHILLY CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FAIRLY QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE
SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW, ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION THAT INITIALLY BEGINS AS RAIN FOR MOST AREAS
TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY SINCE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL WITH JUST ENOUGH
INTENSITY FOR SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. A LOW-CONFIDENCE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU ESCARPMENT FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT THE GENERAL
FEELING IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO MARGINAL (GENERALLY RIGHT AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING)
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF ELEVATED AND GRASSY
SURFACES, ESPECIALLY WHERE ROADS HAVE BEEN TREATED. TYPICALLY, IN
THESE TYPES OF EVENTS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND ELEVATION PLAY
AN OUTSIZED ROLE IN WHICH LOCATIONS SEE MORE SNOW AND THUS HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER FOR HARLAN AND LETCHER
COUNTIES, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
THOUGH AGAIN THE VALLEY BOTTOMS ARE LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN
OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX, AT LEAST INITIALLY, WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS THERE.
THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EXITS EAST INTO VIRGINIA BY MID-MORNING
SATURDAY, WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE, AND SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK
COATING OF SNOW AND SHARPLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY IN
COVERAGE, HOWEVER, AND BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO FAR
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
CLEARING SKIES TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY IN THE WEST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN
TO RULE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. LATE THIS WEEKEND, SHARPER RIDGING WILL BE ALIGNED FROM
ALASKA THROUGH THE WEST COAST, WHILE DEEPER TROUGHING IS POSITIONED
FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. INBOUND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE
THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, SECURING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE
TROUGH WILL BROADEN A BIT, WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES NOSING IN
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY
NIGHT, MAINTAINING SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY, WITH SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING
ALIGNED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND LESSENING CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL CRUISE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WITH A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT FOLLOWING SUIT AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS, BUT THE LOW
LEVELS LOOK TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHEN TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BETWEEN
15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH RETURN FLOW ENSUING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH A RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH POPS ONLY PEAKING AT AROUND 30%
FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW, THEN DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING SPREADING, THEN SPREADS/EXPANDS SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST. ALONG WITH THIS WILL COME A REDUCTION TO MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS SETTING IN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 8 TO 14 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL THEN BACK OFF TO LESS THAN
10 KTS THROUGH MID-MORNING SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR KYZ088-118.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...CMC
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