865
FXUS63 KJKL 162117
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
417 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DEVELOPING AREA OF RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING WILL MIX WITH AND
THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LATER TONIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP 2 INCHES.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT,
WITH CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.
- EXPECT SUDDEN VISIBILITY DROPS IN SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
A LARGE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL
PUSH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BEFORE THE TROUGH
AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO
CHILLY CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FAIRLY QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE
SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW, ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION THAT INITIALLY BEGINS AS RAIN FOR MOST AREAS
TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY SINCE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL WITH JUST ENOUGH
INTENSITY FOR SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. A LOW-CONFIDENCE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU ESCARPMENT FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT THE GENERAL
FEELING IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO MARGINAL (GENERALLY RIGHT AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING)
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF ELEVATED AND GRASSY
SURFACES, ESPECIALLY WHERE ROADS HAVE BEEN TREATED. TYPICALLY, IN
THESE TYPES OF EVENTS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND ELEVATION PLAY
AN OUTSIZED ROLE IN WHICH LOCATIONS SEE MORE SNOW AND THUS HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER FOR HARLAN AND LETCHER
COUNTIES, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
THOUGH AGAIN THE VALLEY BOTTOMS ARE LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN
OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX, AT LEAST INITIALLY, WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS THERE.
THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EXITS EAST INTO VIRGINIA BY MID-MORNING
SATURDAY, WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE, AND SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK
COATING OF SNOW AND SHARPLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY IN
COVERAGE, HOWEVER, AND BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO FAR
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
CLEARING SKIES TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY IN THE WEST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
AFTER THE UNSETTLED WEATHER OF SATURDAY, SUNDAY WILL BRING ON A
QUIETER STATE FOR A FEW DAYS. A SHORTWAVE/TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE ON SUNDAY, THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH. TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AND EVEN STRENGTHEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO FILTER COLD AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE REGION, AMID
BREEZY CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER
AT THE SURFACE - KEEPING SKIES DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL. THIS
COLD AND DRY PATTERN WILL ALL CULMINATE ON MONDAY NIGHT, WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD, AND DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE FORECAST.
THINGS BEGIN TO SHIFT A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS WE FIND OURSELVES ON THE
RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS
WILL BRING SW FLOW AND WAA, AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
RETURN. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S
THROUGH TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BOOST INTO THE MID AND UPPER
40S. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, LIKELY DAWNING A COLD FRONT TO THE S AND W.
GIVEN THAT THIS IS DAY 6, THERE IS STILL A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT
AMONGST THE LONG-TERM MODELS, BUT DO EXPECT THIS FRONTAL FEATURE TO
IMPACT KY SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. CURRENTLY THE NBM IS TRYING TO BLEND THE
DISAGREEING MODELS, WHICH IS BROAD-BRUSHING THINGS WITH LOWER POPS
AND EXTENDED TIMES OF IMPACT. IN REALITY, EXPECT A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING A SHORTER DURATION THAN IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. BUT FOR NOW, WITHOUT ANY CONFIDENCE IN WHICH
MODEL IS CORRECT, WILL KEEP WHAT THE NBM HAS. ALSO WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW TEMPERATURES PLAY OUT AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TO
TRULY KNOW WHAT THE PERCEPTION TYPES WILL BE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW, THEN DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING SPREADING, THEN SPREADS/EXPANDS SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST. ALONG WITH THIS WILL COME A REDUCTION TO MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS SETTING IN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 8 TO 14 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL THEN BACK OFF TO LESS THAN
10 KTS THROUGH MID-MORNING SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR KYZ088-118.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...CMC
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