354
FXUS63 KJKL 170221
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
921 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DEVELOPING AREA OF RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING WILL MIX WITH AND
THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LATER TONIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP 2 INCHES.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT,
WITH CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.
- EXPECT SUDDEN VISIBILITY DROPS IN SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 921 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
RAIN HAS ARRIVED IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AND IS BRINGING
TEMPERATURES DOWN. FURTHER WEST, RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY AS TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR FREEZING. THE
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOULD WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
FALL. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP ANY FURTHER THAN AROUND FREEZING
(EXCEPT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR VA BORDER) AND WILL BE ONLY
MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH MAKES THE FORECAST OF AMOUNTS
TRICKY. HAVE UPDATED BASED ON LATEST TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE OVERALL RESULTING CHANGES ARE MINIMAL. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS LEFT IN PLACE, BUT IT IS MARGINAL, WITH
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ON RIDGES (EXCEPT FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON RIDGES NEAR THE VA BORDER).
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
A LARGE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL
PUSH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BEFORE THE TROUGH
AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO
CHILLY CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FAIRLY QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE
SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW, ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION THAT INITIALLY BEGINS AS RAIN FOR MOST AREAS
TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY SINCE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL WITH JUST ENOUGH
INTENSITY FOR SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. A LOW-CONFIDENCE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU ESCARPMENT FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT THE GENERAL
FEELING IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO MARGINAL (GENERALLY RIGHT AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING)
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF ELEVATED AND GRASSY
SURFACES, ESPECIALLY WHERE ROADS HAVE BEEN TREATED. TYPICALLY, IN
THESE TYPES OF EVENTS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND ELEVATION PLAY
AN OUTSIZED ROLE IN WHICH LOCATIONS SEE MORE SNOW AND THUS HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER FOR HARLAN AND LETCHER
COUNTIES, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
THOUGH AGAIN THE VALLEY BOTTOMS ARE LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN
OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX, AT LEAST INITIALLY, WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS THERE.
THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EXITS EAST INTO VIRGINIA BY MID-MORNING
SATURDAY, WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE, AND SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK
COATING OF SNOW AND SHARPLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY IN
COVERAGE, HOWEVER, AND BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO FAR
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
CLEARING SKIES TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY IN THE WEST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
AFTER THE UNSETTLED WEATHER OF SATURDAY, SUNDAY WILL BRING ON A
QUIETER STATE FOR A FEW DAYS. A SHORTWAVE/TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE ON SUNDAY, THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH. TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AND EVEN STRENGTHEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO FILTER COLD AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE REGION, AMID
BREEZY CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER
AT THE SURFACE - KEEPING SKIES DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL. THIS
COLD AND DRY PATTERN WILL ALL CULMINATE ON MONDAY NIGHT, WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD, AND DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE FORECAST.
THINGS BEGIN TO SHIFT A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS WE FIND OURSELVES ON THE
RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS
WILL BRING SW FLOW AND WAA, AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
RETURN. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S
THROUGH TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BOOST INTO THE MID AND UPPER
40S. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, LIKELY DAWNING A COLD FRONT TO THE S AND W.
GIVEN THAT THIS IS DAY 6, THERE IS STILL A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT
AMONGST THE LONG-TERM MODELS, BUT DO EXPECT THIS FRONTAL FEATURE TO
IMPACT KY SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. CURRENTLY THE NBM IS TRYING TO BLEND THE
DISAGREEING MODELS, WHICH IS BROAD-BRUSHING THINGS WITH LOWER POPS
AND EXTENDED TIMES OF IMPACT. IN REALITY, EXPECT A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING A SHORTER DURATION THAN IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. BUT FOR NOW, WITHOUT ANY CONFIDENCE IN WHICH
MODEL IS CORRECT, WILL KEEP WHAT THE NBM HAS. ALSO WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW TEMPERATURES PLAY OUT AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TO
TRULY KNOW WHAT THE PERCEPTION TYPES WILL BE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
RAIN WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, WITH CONDITIONS FALLING TO MVFR DUE
TO CEILINGS. TO THE EAST, VFR CONDITIONS WERE STILL PRESENT.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME THIS
EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES COOL, THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE
TO SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DETERIORATE TO IFR DURING
THE NIGHT AS PRECIP OCCURS. THE SNOW SHOULD LARGELY TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS FORECAST AROUND DAWN, GIVE OR
TAKE A COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING IS LOW.
REGARDLESS, EVENTUAL IMPROVEMENT ALL THE WAY TO VFR SHOULD
EVENTUALLY OCCUR DURING THE DAY, BUT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ088-118.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL
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