830
FXUS63 KJKL 170857
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DEVELOPING AREA OF RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING WILL MIX WITH AND
THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LATER TONIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP 2 INCHES.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT,
WITH CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.
- EXPECT SUDDEN VISIBILITY DROPS IN SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
A SPRAWLING SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING, BENEATH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS AND TROUGH ARE PIVOTING AROUND THE
STORM SYSTEM. ONE OF THESE, WITH THE AID OF AN UPPER JET STREAK,
BROUGHT PRECIP TO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH THE LAST OF THIS PRECIP
LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST KY THIS MORNING (BUT ON THE WAY OUT).
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BORDERLINE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW VS. RAIN.
WITH PRECIP HAVING FINISHED IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, THE WSW
WAS CANCELLED EARLY THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES. IN REALITY, IF IT WERE NOT ALREADY IN
EFFECT THERE, IT PROBABLY WOULD NOT BE ISSUED. IT LOOKS AS IF THE
ONLY MEANINGFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE COUNTIES WILL
PROBABLY BE ABOVE ABOUT 2500 FEET, WHERE 1-3 INCHES WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR BEFORE IT'S FINISHES THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER WESTERN KY EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING AS IT
WEAKENS. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH THIS
IN OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT IT
SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO MUCH. YET ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH ANOTHER
JET STREAK RIDING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS COULD AGAIN BRING
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS MINIMAL.
ONCE TONIGHT'S SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST, SURFACE RIDGING AND A
VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
STILL IN PLACE. DESPITE A RETURN OF MORE SUN, SUNDAY'S
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE JKL
FORECAST AREA AT TAF ISSUANCE, AND SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THE
LEADING EDGE AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION WAS MAINLY RAIN, WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN PORTION WAS SNOW. CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN
WERE LARGELY MVFR, WHILE IT WAS GENERALLY IFR IN THE SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL OVERTAKE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE RAIN BECOMING MAINLY SNOW AS TIME GOES BY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA AT LEAST FOR A
TIME OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND AROUND DAWN. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED AFTER PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MOST PLACES ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALIZED POORER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, ONCE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN, THEY SHOULD LAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
118.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...HAL
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