545
FXUS63 KJKL 171759 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1259 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS EASTERN KY AT
THIS TIME, A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY CONTAINING SNOW GRAINS AND GRAUPEL
AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW WERE OCCURRING IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA. SOME SNOW GRAINS AND GRAUPEL FELL AS JKL AS THESE PASSED.
THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AS WELL. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WORKS EAST. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE EXPECTED TREND WITHIN
THESE SHOWERS AS WELL AS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATION TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MAIN PCPN SWATH IN THE FAR EAST HAVE
ALSO DROPPED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THESE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH
A FRESHENING OF THE HWO, SAFS, AND ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
A SPRAWLING SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING, BENEATH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS AND TROUGH ARE PIVOTING AROUND THE
STORM SYSTEM. ONE OF THESE, WITH THE AID OF AN UPPER JET STREAK,
BROUGHT PRECIP TO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH THE LAST OF THIS PRECIP
LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST KY THIS MORNING (BUT ON THE WAY OUT).
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BORDERLINE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW VS. RAIN.
WITH PRECIP HAVING FINISHED IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, THE WSW
WAS CANCELLED EARLY THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES. IN REALITY, IF IT WERE NOT ALREADY IN
EFFECT THERE, IT PROBABLY WOULD NOT BE ISSUED. IT LOOKS AS IF THE
ONLY MEANINGFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE COUNTIES WILL
PROBABLY BE ABOVE ABOUT 2500 FEET, WHERE 1-3 INCHES WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR BEFORE IT'S FINISHES THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER WESTERN KY EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING AS IT
WEAKENS. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH THIS
IN OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT IT
SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO MUCH. YET ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH ANOTHER
JET STREAK RIDING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS COULD AGAIN BRING
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS MINIMAL.
ONCE TONIGHT'S SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST, SURFACE RIDGING AND A
VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
STILL IN PLACE. DESPITE A RETURN OF MORE SUN, SUNDAY'S
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH FRIDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK, A SHARP RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED FROM ALASKA THROUGH THE WEST COAST, WHILE DEEP
TROUGHING IS POSITIONED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE
CONUS. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY, SOME STREAMING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF CANADA, ALONG WITH ENERGY GYRING
AROUND A DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY, WILL CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN BECOME MORE BROAD AND DAMPENED SOMEWHAT AFTER
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BETWEEN 10
AND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. READINGS WILL THEN MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE TRENDING AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
A FEW PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, PROPELLING A MOISTURE-STARVED
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. THE LOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, WITH
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES DIPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS. THE COLD START TO TUESDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S, BESIDES A FEW LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER, WHERE THE 30 DEGREE MARK MAY BE BREACHED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH RETURN FLOW ENSUING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. POPS
HAVE ONLY INCREASED TO 40% DURING THIS TIME FRAME, AND THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
RAIN IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, BUT AS THE COLUMN
COOLS THROUGH WETBULBING, A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WOULD LIKELY OCCUR.
AGAIN, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, IT'S TOO EARLY TO OUTLINE SPECIFIC
IMPACTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, BEFORE
PERHAPS ANOTHER MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE, WITH THE BLENDED GUIDANCE
DEPICTING ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S, WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 20S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
AS OF ISSUANCE TIME, A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR WAS OCCURRING
ACROSS EASTERN KY. SHOWERS, WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AND
PERHAPS BRIEFLY LOWER, WERE PRESENT GENERALLY FROM NEAR KSJS TO
KJKL AND TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING EASTERN KY.
DURING THE FIRST 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD, A GENERAL TREND TO VFR IS
FORECAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10KT OR LESS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA IN THE 00Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME, LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN NORTH FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME TO AT LEAST A KLOZ TO KJKL TO KSJS LINE. TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THAT LINE, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE MIDDLE 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD, A GENERAL
RETURN TO VFR IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING OR
REDEVELOPING WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. FROM AROUND 00Z ONWARD,
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT LESS THAN 10KT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...JP
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