020
FXUS63 KJKL 171933
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
233 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS EASTERN KY AT
THIS TIME, A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY CONTAINING SNOW GRAINS AND GRAUPEL
AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW WERE OCCURRING IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA. SOME SNOW GRAINS AND GRAUPEL FELL AS JKL AS THESE PASSED.
THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AS WELL. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WORKS EAST. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE EXPECTED TREND WITHIN
THESE SHOWERS AS WELL AS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATION TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MAIN PCPN SWATH IN THE FAR EAST HAVE
ALSO DROPPED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THESE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH
A FRESHENING OF THE HWO, SAFS, AND ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
A SPRAWLING SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING, BENEATH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS AND TROUGH ARE PIVOTING AROUND THE
STORM SYSTEM. ONE OF THESE, WITH THE AID OF AN UPPER JET STREAK,
BROUGHT PRECIP TO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH THE LAST OF THIS PRECIP
LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST KY THIS MORNING (BUT ON THE WAY OUT).
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BORDERLINE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW VS. RAIN.
WITH PRECIP HAVING FINISHED IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, THE WSW
WAS CANCELLED EARLY THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES. IN REALITY, IF IT WERE NOT ALREADY IN
EFFECT THERE, IT PROBABLY WOULD NOT BE ISSUED. IT LOOKS AS IF THE
ONLY MEANINGFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE COUNTIES WILL
PROBABLY BE ABOVE ABOUT 2500 FEET, WHERE 1-3 INCHES WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR BEFORE IT'S FINISHES THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER WESTERN KY EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING AS IT
WEAKENS. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH THIS
IN OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT IT
SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO MUCH. YET ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH ANOTHER
JET STREAK RIDING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS COULD AGAIN BRING
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS MINIMAL.
ONCE TONIGHT'S SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST, SURFACE RIDGING AND A
VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
STILL IN PLACE. DESPITE A RETURN OF MORE SUN, SUNDAY'S
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS TIED TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, BUT A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
NEGLIGIBLE TO START THE PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL ENSURE
THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT, CAA WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ABOUT
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO, AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE
MID-20S IN THE BLUEGRASS AND MID-30S TOWARD VIRGINIA. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER; CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
FAVOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE CONTINUED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO MONDAY. HOWEVER,
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHICH WILL FAVOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS FEATURE TRAVERSES THE CONUS, FLOW WILL
QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST. WAA WILL LEAD TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID-40S. THE FORECAST
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH; TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF INITIALLY RAIN, BUT AS TEMPERATURES FALL AND
THE COLUMN WET-BULBS, A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED, AND ANY SNOWFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE SLUSHY AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO ELEVATED SURFACES. THURSDAY BRINGS THE RETURN OF WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO
LOWER 40S FOR THURSDAY, WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START IN THE TEENS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL, THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SANDWICHING A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE FAST-MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEEK AND BRING A BURST OF WINTER WEATHER BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD, BUT BRIEF SPURTS OF RELATIVE WARMTH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WAA
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
AS OF ISSUANCE TIME, A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR WAS OCCURRING
ACROSS EASTERN KY. SHOWERS, WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AND
PERHAPS BRIEFLY LOWER, WERE PRESENT GENERALLY FROM NEAR KSJS TO
KJKL AND TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING EASTERN KY.
DURING THE FIRST 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD, A GENERAL TREND TO VFR IS
FORECAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10KT OR LESS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA IN THE 00Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME, LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN NORTH FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME TO AT LEAST A KLOZ TO KJKL TO KSJS LINE. TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THAT LINE, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE MIDDLE 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD, A GENERAL
RETURN TO VFR IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING OR
REDEVELOPING WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. FROM AROUND 00Z ONWARD,
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT LESS THAN 10KT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP
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