607
FXUS63 KJKL 172243
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
543 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT, MAINLY
ABOVE 2000 FEET IN PIKE, HARLAN, AND LETCHER COUNTIES.
- TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 542 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE EARLY EVENING
UPDATE. FLURRIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT
TIMES INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
AS OF MID AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE
HUDSON BAY VICINITY SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDED FROM
NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TO WEST OF THE BC COAST
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE IL VICINITY. AT THE
SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NORTH OF THE LAKE
HURON VICINITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THAT
FRONT AIDED IN BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THERE ARE WEAK RETURNS TO
THE WEST AND NORTH OF JKL, BUT WEBCAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO
NOT SUGGEST THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
IL AREA TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AND WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE. THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE SHOULD CROSS
EASTERN KY BY LATE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE 500 MB TROUGH
WILL APPROACH EASTERN KY LATER TONIGHT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE PASSING
EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. FURTHER WEST, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FROM NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TO NEAR OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BC COAST.
DOWNSTREAM, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE
HUDSON BAY VICINITY INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/IMPULSE ROTATING INTO THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE IN THE UPPER TO MID MS VALLEY AND NEAR THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS
GENERALLY NORTH OF EASTERN KY AND THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALSO INTO THE
TN AND OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE GULF AND
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. FURTHER NORTH, THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATE IN THE PERIOD SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS WELL
NORTH OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NEARING
EASTERN KY NEAR THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO COOL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
REACHING THE -10C TO -17C RANGE AROUND DAWN ON SUNDAY. THE COLDER
850 MB TEMPERATURES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT MODERATION. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT THAT APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL USHER IN ANOTHER COOL DOWN. THE MAIN STORY OF THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES PARTICULARLY FOR HIGHS ON
SUNDAY.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS INITIALLY CHANCES FOR FLURRIES OR MIXED
FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES EARLY THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THAT TENDS TO WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS
THE 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, OPTED TO GO A BIT HIGHER
THAN THE NBM PPI FOR POPS IN THE PIKE TO HARLAN COUNTY VICINITY
THIS EVENING. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE COULD
PICK UP A DUSTING TO GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH, WITH
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE. THIS HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE KEY MESSAGES AND IN A SEPARATE SEGMENT OF THE HWO.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT,
TEENS SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE WEST FOR LOWS WITH SOME LOW 20S IN
THE BIG SANDY VALLEY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK ON SUNDAY, WHILE MANY AREAS IN THE NORTH LIKELY
DO NOT RISE OUT OF THE 20S. ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE
COLD SIDE MONDAY NIGHT (NO MORE THAN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL), COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS FOLLOW IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS TIED TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, BUT A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
NEGLIGIBLE TO START THE PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL ENSURE
THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT, CAA WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ABOUT
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO, AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE
MID-20S IN THE BLUEGRASS AND MID-30S TOWARD VIRGINIA. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER; CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
FAVOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE CONTINUED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO MONDAY. HOWEVER,
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHICH WILL FAVOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS FEATURE TRAVERSES THE CONUS, FLOW WILL
QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST. WAA WILL LEAD TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID-40S. THE FORECAST
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH; TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF INITIALLY RAIN, BUT AS TEMPERATURES FALL AND
THE COLUMN WET-BULBS, A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED, AND ANY SNOWFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE SLUSHY AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO ELEVATED SURFACES. THURSDAY BRINGS THE RETURN OF WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO
LOWER 40S FOR THURSDAY, WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START IN THE TEENS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL, THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SANDWICHING A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE FAST-MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEEK AND BRING A BURST OF WINTER WEATHER BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD, BUT BRIEF SPURTS OF RELATIVE WARMTH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WAA
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
AS OF ISSUANCE TIME, A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR WAS OCCURRING
ACROSS EASTERN KY. SHOWERS, WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AND
PERHAPS BRIEFLY LOWER, WERE PRESENT GENERALLY FROM NEAR KSJS TO
KJKL AND TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING EASTERN KY.
DURING THE FIRST 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD, A GENERAL TREND TO VFR IS
FORECAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10KT OR LESS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA IN THE 00Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME, LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN NORTH FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME TO AT LEAST A KLOZ TO KJKL TO KSJS LINE. TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THAT LINE, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE MIDDLE 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD, A GENERAL
RETURN TO VFR IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING OR
REDEVELOPING WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. FROM AROUND 00Z ONWARD,
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT LESS THAN 10KT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP
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