997
FXUS63 KJKL 080456 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1156 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE DAY OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW FOR
SOME LOCATIONS IS AHEAD FOR SUNDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
SHOULD OCCUR PRIMARILY NEAR/NORTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 15, IF IT
MATERIALIZES.
- A DRAMATIC WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY WEEKEND,
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO THE UPPER 50S AND MID-60S BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION THAWS OUT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS STILL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA - HAVE CONTINUED THE SPS IN EFFECT FOR THIS. THESE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH
A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS, SPS, AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS WORKING TO SETTLE THE WINDS AND
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER, IT WILL MOVE OUT LATE TONIGHT
AND ALLOW SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO ARRIVE FOR NORTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S IN THE SOUTH.
MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID SINGLE DIGITS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO
ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG
WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
COLD AND SUNNY WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN, DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RANGING
MOSTLY IN THE 20S, EXCEPT FOR A FEW LOW/MID 30S IN THE WARMER
PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR RANGE FROM 43F OVER THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS TO 48F NEAR
LAKE CUMBERLAND, WHILE TYPICAL LOWS RANGE FROM 22F IN THE NORTHERN
HOLLOWS TO 30F NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND.
WHILE THERE IS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE PROVERBIAL TUNNEL, EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL NEED TO ENDURE ONE MORE COLD, AND FOR SOME WINTRY,
DAY ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY APPROACHING OUR AREA
WILL QUICKLY CREST OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. A QUICK-
MOVING DISTURBANCE, PRESENTLY OVER MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA, WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL WAA
CLOUD COVER WHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
PIVOTS A GLANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
RESULT IS A TRANSIENT ZONE OF STRONG 700-500 HPA FRONTOGENESIS
DIVING FROM WISCONSIN SOUTHEAST TO VIRGINIA. THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THE RESULTING MESOSCALE SNOWBAND REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
THE 07/12Z HREF PMM GENERALLY SHOWED THE AXIS OF THE BAND
NORTHEAST OF A MOREHEAD TO WEST LIBERTY TO PRESTONSBURG TO ELKHORN
CITY LINE, BUT THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL VARIABILITY. SOME
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BAND MORE OVER THE RLX/ILN CWAS WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE BRINGS THE AXIS FARTHER SOUTHWEST TO ALONG THE KY-15
CORRIDOR. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREAS OF MAIN
CONCERN AS OF THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE -- FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE UNDER
THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF THE BAND, AND DEPENDING UPON THE ULTIMATE
INTENSITY OF THE FORCING, A SWATH OF TOTALS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
IS NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. A SIGNIFICANT MITIGATING
FACTOR FOR ACCUMULATION, THOUGH, WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR
IN THE LOW-LEVELS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MOISTENED BEFORE SNOW IS
ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AT ONSET, IN
THE 10S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, SO ONCE SNOW DOES REACH THE GROUND, IT
SHOULD STICK READILY. ONCE THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS, HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL REASSERT CONTROL OVER OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TO
YIELD TO CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES DROP OFF QUICKLY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS, BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE LATE AND SLOW
FURTHER FALLS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE MID 10S ON THERMAL
BELT RIDGES AND WEST OF I-75. FOR SUNDAY, SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING, PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF KY-15. OTHERWISE,
CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE COOL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHEAST
OF KY-15 TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10F IN
NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS TO THE MID 20S NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. A DRY SURFACE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE PRIMARY PERTURBATION IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG A WARM FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AS THIS CANADIAN FEATURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD, THE DRY PERTURBATION WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEFORE THIS TRANSITION, MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY
DUE TO THE LINGERING SURFACE HIGH. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALREADY
ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHWEST, A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE.
MONDAY HIGHS WILL REFLECT THIS, REACHING THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID-40S TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND; HOWEVER, IN AREAS WHERE CLEARING
PERSISTS, SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY DROP INTO THE MID-20S, WHILE MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
BY TUESDAY, THE REGION WILL SIT BEHIND THE DRY WARM FRONT LEADING TO
A ROBUST WAA REGIME TAKING HOLD. ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TO START THE DAY, TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID-60S. THIS
SIGNIFICANT WARMING PRECEDES AN APPROACHING SYNOPTIC FEATURE,
SPECIFICALLY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY TUESDAY EVENING, POP CHANCES
INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THE
PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION,
THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY SUPPORT RAIN, THOUGH THE DIURNAL CURVE MAY
ALLOW SNOW TO MIX IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SECOND PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK ON
THURSDAY, MAINTAINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
ANOTHER FEATURE ARRIVING BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
DECLINE FROM THE TUESDAY PEAK, SETTLING INTO THE 40S FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THESE VALUES PRIMARILY SUPPORT
RAIN, NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING EACH
NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A WINTRY MIX THROUGH SUNRISE. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, THOUGH AN ISOLATED DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WHERE LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES ARE HIGHER.
IN SUMMARY, THE PERIOD BEGINS DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THIS TREND HALTS AS A SERIES OF SURFACE WAVES TRAVERSE THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, BRINGING REPEATED CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A TRANSITION TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT BEFORE
RETURNING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS STILL PREVAILED AT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NIGHT. A PASSING WAVE DOES BRING
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW SUNDAY MORNING, MOSTLY
LIKELY NORTHEAST OF AN KIOB TO KI35 LINE. CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS SNOWBAND REMAINS LOW, SO AGAIN ONLY INCLUDED
PROB30S FOR -SN AND MVFR WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY,
SUNDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GREIF
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