445
FXUS63 KJKL 080935
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
435 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE DAY OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW FOR
SOME LOCATIONS IS AHEAD FOR SUNDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
SHOULD OCCUR PRIMARILY NEAR/NORTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 15, IF IT
MATERIALIZES.
- A DRAMATIC WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY WEEKEND,
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO THE UPPER 50S AND MID-60S BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION THAWS OUT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS STILL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA - HAVE CONTINUED THE SPS IN EFFECT FOR THIS. THESE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH
A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS, SPS, AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS WORKING TO SETTLE THE WINDS AND
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER, IT WILL MOVE OUT LATE TONIGHT
AND ALLOW SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO ARRIVE FOR NORTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S IN THE SOUTH.
MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID SINGLE DIGITS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO
ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG
WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
COLD AND SUNNY WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN, DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RANGING
MOSTLY IN THE 20S, EXCEPT FOR A FEW LOW/MID 30S IN THE WARMER
PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR RANGE FROM 43F OVER THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS TO 48F NEAR
LAKE CUMBERLAND, WHILE TYPICAL LOWS RANGE FROM 22F IN THE NORTHERN
HOLLOWS TO 30F NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND.
WHILE THERE IS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE PROVERBIAL TUNNEL, EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL NEED TO ENDURE ONE MORE COLD, AND FOR SOME WINTRY,
DAY ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY APPROACHING OUR AREA
WILL QUICKLY CREST OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. A QUICK-
MOVING DISTURBANCE, PRESENTLY OVER MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA, WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL WAA
CLOUD COVER WHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
PIVOTS A GLANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
RESULT IS A TRANSIENT ZONE OF STRONG 700-500 HPA FRONTOGENESIS
DIVING FROM WISCONSIN SOUTHEAST TO VIRGINIA. THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THE RESULTING MESOSCALE SNOWBAND REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
THE 07/12Z HREF PMM GENERALLY SHOWED THE AXIS OF THE BAND
NORTHEAST OF A MOREHEAD TO WEST LIBERTY TO PRESTONSBURG TO ELKHORN
CITY LINE, BUT THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL VARIABILITY. SOME
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BAND MORE OVER THE RLX/ILN CWAS WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE BRINGS THE AXIS FARTHER SOUTHWEST TO ALONG THE KY-15
CORRIDOR. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREAS OF MAIN
CONCERN AS OF THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE -- FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE UNDER
THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF THE BAND, AND DEPENDING UPON THE ULTIMATE
INTENSITY OF THE FORCING, A SWATH OF TOTALS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
IS NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. A SIGNIFICANT MITIGATING
FACTOR FOR ACCUMULATION, THOUGH, WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR
IN THE LOW-LEVELS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MOISTENED BEFORE SNOW IS
ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AT ONSET, IN
THE 10S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, SO ONCE SNOW DOES REACH THE GROUND, IT
SHOULD STICK READILY. ONCE THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS, HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL REASSERT CONTROL OVER OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TO
YIELD TO CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES DROP OFF QUICKLY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS, BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE LATE AND SLOW
FURTHER FALLS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE MID 10S ON THERMAL
BELT RIDGES AND WEST OF I-75. FOR SUNDAY, SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING, PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF KY-15. OTHERWISE,
CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE COOL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHEAST
OF KY-15 TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10F IN
NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS TO THE MID 20S NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS THAT WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD - THE FIRST IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MODELS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. HOWEVER, THE SECOND ONE, MODELS
ARE STILL VERY MUCH OUT TO LUNCH. AND THEY EACH WENT TO A DIFFERENT
RESTAURANT.
WE WILL START THE PERIOD ON MONDAY NIGHT DRY, AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT IS
LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE, ATTACHED TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT SEEMS TO BE
MORE CONFINED TO THE SECTION OF THE FRONT CLOSET TO THE SOUTHERN-
EXTENT LOW, AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO KEEP DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH MAY WIN OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, BUT
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DRIVE SOUTH AND EAST.
IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THE TEMPERATURE ON TUESDAY WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S THANKS TO RETURN FLOW ADVECTING WARMER
SOUTHERLY AIR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, A RIDGE IN PLACE
ALOFT, AND HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LEADING TO SUNNY
AND WARMING SKIES THE DAY PRIOR ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WHEN
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY, THE FRONT'S WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERLY HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES HERE
ABOVE FREEZING, AND TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH (GENERALLY ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND NORTHWARD AT THIS TIME) A LITTLE COOLER, BUT
STILL POTENTIALLY JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. IN OTHER WORDS, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THIS EVENT SHOULD
BE ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID, IF THE BOUNDARY
SHIFTS AT ALL, OR TEMPERATURES ARE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER, CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN FOR THE NORTH. QPF AND PROBABILITIES
ARE BOTH LOWER HERE, SO IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED, EVEN IF SNOW WERE
TO OCCUR.
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S, SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING, CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARDS IS WHERE THINGS START TO GET MESSY.
FIRST, THE NBM IS TRYING TO SHOW POPS MOVING INTO THE CWA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TIMING TO GET PUSHED BACK AS NEITHER
THE GFS OR ECWMF SHOW ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE GFS HAS GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE ECMWF HAS A LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING
PATTERN. THE ECMWF SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE STATE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, PRODUCING A
LOCALIZED SURFACE LOW. THIS WOULD RESULT IN DECENT SHOT OF LOCALIZED
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO THE STATE DURING THIS TIME. IT WILL ALSO
BRING A SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR GIVEN THE NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS TROUGHING PATTERN. PRECIP QUICKLY EXITS BY FRIDAY EVENING, WITH
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING HEIGHTS BOTH ON TAP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM, THE GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE OVERALL RIDGING PATTERN (NOT TROUGHING), BUT
MUCH FARTHER NW ON THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WON'T MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY OR BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
SOME 18 HOURS AFTER THE ECMWF PROJECTIONS. AND WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
A QUICK HIT, WITH PRECIP MOVING IN AND THEN BACK OUT WITHIN 18
HOURS, THE GFS IS MUCH MORE ROBUST. ONCE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON (JUST AS THE ECWMF IS MOVING THE PRECIPITATION
OUT), IT WILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY - AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS, STRENGTHENS, AND MOVES INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
DURING THE WEEKEND.
THESE TWO MODELS COULDN'T BE MUCH FARTHER APART FROM ONE ANOTHER.
DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY, AND THE NBM TRYING TO BLEND TWO POLAR
OPPOSITES TOGETHER, THE RESULTING OUTPUT SHOWS CHANCE POPS FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL NOT
ACTUALLY BE THE CASE. EVENTUALLY THE MODELS WILL HAVE TO PICK A
SCENARIO AND START TO AGREE ON IT, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE POPS AND SHORTEN THE TIME FRAME WHICH THEY ARE IMPACTING THE
CWA. THE OTHER PROBLEM WITH THIS BLENDING OF THE TWO OPPOSITE
SOLUTIONS IS THE TEMPERATURE AND RESULTING PRECIP TYPE FORECAST. THE
GFS WILL BE QUITE COLD, WHERE AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS LIKELY MORE
MILD. WHEN COMBINING THE TWO, THE NBM GIVES A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES START OFF WARM (WELL ABOVE FREEZING) DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, THEN QUICKLY DROPS BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH NO ICE
ALOFT, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN CHANCES. THIS SIMPLY
ISN'T TRUE. PERHAPS IN A SPECIFIC SCENARIO IT MIGHT BE, BUT THERE IS
NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MODELS TO TRUST SUCH A SOLUTION.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES, EVERYONE WAS ON
BOARD WITH REMOVING ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AT THIS POINT. AS
MODELS HOPEFULLY GET INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE COMING DAYS, WE
CAN RE-EVALUATE IF THIS IS ACTUALLY A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. IN THE
MEANTIME, KEPT WITH RAIN AND SNOW AS THE TWO TYPES OF PRECIPITATION,
BUT AGAIN, FAITH IN TYPE, TIMING, AND ESPECIALLY AMOUNTS IS
EXTREMELY LOW.
FOR THE SAKE OF THE FORECAST, HOPEFULLY THESE TWO MODELS CAN
RECONCILE THEIR GRIEVANCES BETWEEN ONE ANOTHER SOON. MAYBE HAVE
LUNCH AT THE SAME RESTAURANT. POSSIBLY EVEN THE SAME TABLE WOULD BE
NICE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS STILL PREVAILED AT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NIGHT. A PASSING WAVE DOES BRING
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW SUNDAY MORNING, MOSTLY
LIKELY NORTHEAST OF AN KIOB TO KI35 LINE. CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS SNOWBAND REMAINS LOW, SO AGAIN ONLY INCLUDED
PROB30S FOR -SN AND MVFR WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY,
SUNDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
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