634
FXUS63 KJKL 081522
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1022 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL
LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WORKWEEK, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
NOTABLE RADAR RETURNS ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE RLX/ILN AREAS
LATE THIS MORNING. WHILE A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM
FLEMING DOWN TO PIKE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, A
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE NOTHING AT ALL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 723 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
RADAR RETURNS ARE STREAMING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT WITHOUT ANY SURFACE REPORTS OF
PRECIP IT WOULD APPEAR THAT IT IS STILL VIRGA. A SMALL CHANCE OF
SNOW REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THERE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, EARLY
MORNING OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND SKY CONDITION HAVE BEEN BLENDED
INTO THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS ALOFT OVER NORTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN OH
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT ONLY VIRGA OCCURRING AT THIS POINT. THERE
IS SOME SNOW REACHING THE GROUND TO THE NORTHWEST IN IN.
EVENTUALLY SNOW SHOULD REACH THE GROUND FURTHER SOUTHEAST. THE
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET. MODELS HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING NE/SW WITH
WHERE THE LIFT FROM THESE FEATURES WILL BE MAXIMIZED TODAY. LAST
NIGHT'S RUNS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NE. THIS TAKES THE
GREATEST PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SNOWFALL TODAY JUST TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. HAVE HELD ON TO 20-30% POP OVER OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WHATEVER OCCURS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE LATE
THIS MORNING, WITH ANY SNOW WINDING DOWN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE THIS VERY WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND OUR FLOW ALOFT REMAINS BENIGN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MORE SUN POTENTIAL ON MONDAY
SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES HIGHER-- AT LEAST INTO THE 40S, WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS THAT WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD - THE FIRST IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MODELS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. HOWEVER, THE SECOND ONE, MODELS
ARE STILL VERY MUCH OUT TO LUNCH. AND THEY EACH WENT TO A DIFFERENT
RESTAURANT.
WE WILL START THE PERIOD ON MONDAY NIGHT DRY, AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT IS
LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE, ATTACHED TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT SEEMS TO BE
MORE CONFINED TO THE SECTION OF THE FRONT CLOSET TO THE SOUTHERN-
EXTENT LOW, AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO KEEP DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH MAY WIN OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, BUT
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DRIVE SOUTH AND EAST.
IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THE TEMPERATURE ON TUESDAY WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S THANKS TO RETURN FLOW ADVECTING WARMER
SOUTHERLY AIR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, A RIDGE IN PLACE
ALOFT, AND HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LEADING TO SUNNY
AND WARMING SKIES THE DAY PRIOR ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WHEN
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY, THE FRONT'S WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERLY HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES HERE
ABOVE FREEZING, AND TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH (GENERALLY ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND NORTHWARD AT THIS TIME) A LITTLE COOLER, BUT
STILL POTENTIALLY JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. IN OTHER WORDS, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THIS EVENT SHOULD
BE ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID, IF THE BOUNDARY
SHIFTS AT ALL, OR TEMPERATURES ARE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER, CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN FOR THE NORTH. QPF AND PROBABILITIES
ARE BOTH LOWER HERE, SO IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED, EVEN IF SNOW WERE
TO OCCUR.
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S, SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING, CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARDS IS WHERE THINGS START TO GET MESSY.
FIRST, THE NBM IS TRYING TO SHOW POPS MOVING INTO THE CWA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TIMING TO GET PUSHED BACK AS NEITHER
THE GFS OR ECWMF SHOW ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE GFS HAS GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE ECMWF HAS A LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING
PATTERN. THE ECMWF SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE STATE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, PRODUCING A
LOCALIZED SURFACE LOW. THIS WOULD RESULT IN DECENT SHOT OF LOCALIZED
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO THE STATE DURING THIS TIME. IT WILL ALSO
BRING A SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR GIVEN THE NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS TROUGHING PATTERN. PRECIP QUICKLY EXITS BY FRIDAY EVENING, WITH
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING HEIGHTS BOTH ON TAP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM, THE GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE OVERALL RIDGING PATTERN (NOT TROUGHING), BUT
MUCH FARTHER NW ON THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WON'T MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY OR BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
SOME 18 HOURS AFTER THE ECMWF PROJECTIONS. AND WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
A QUICK HIT, WITH PRECIP MOVING IN AND THEN BACK OUT WITHIN 18
HOURS, THE GFS IS MUCH MORE ROBUST. ONCE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON (JUST AS THE ECWMF IS MOVING THE PRECIPITATION
OUT), IT WILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY - AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS, STRENGTHENS, AND MOVES INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
DURING THE WEEKEND.
THESE TWO MODELS COULDN'T BE MUCH FARTHER APART FROM ONE ANOTHER.
DUE TO THIS DISCREPANCY, AND THE NBM TRYING TO BLEND TWO POLAR
OPPOSITES TOGETHER, THE RESULTING OUTPUT SHOWS CHANCE POPS FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL NOT
ACTUALLY BE THE CASE. EVENTUALLY THE MODELS WILL HAVE TO PICK A
SCENARIO AND START TO AGREE ON IT, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE POPS AND SHORTEN THE TIME FRAME WHICH THEY ARE IMPACTING THE
CWA. THE OTHER PROBLEM WITH THIS BLENDING OF THE TWO OPPOSITE
SOLUTIONS IS THE TEMPERATURE AND RESULTING PRECIP TYPE FORECAST. THE
GFS WILL BE QUITE COLD, WHERE AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS LIKELY MORE
MILD. WHEN COMBINING THE TWO, THE NBM GIVES A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES START OFF WARM (WELL ABOVE FREEZING) DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, THEN QUICKLY DROPS BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH NO ICE
ALOFT, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN CHANCES. THIS SIMPLY
ISN'T TRUE. PERHAPS IN A SPECIFIC SCENARIO IT MIGHT BE, BUT THERE IS
NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MODELS TO TRUST SUCH A SOLUTION.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES, EVERYONE WAS ON
BOARD WITH REMOVING ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AT THIS POINT. AS
MODELS HOPEFULLY GET INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE COMING DAYS, WE
CAN RE-EVALUATE IF THIS IS ACTUALLY A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. IN THE
MEANTIME, KEPT WITH RAIN AND SNOW AS THE TWO TYPES OF PRECIPITATION,
BUT AGAIN, FAITH IN TYPE, TIMING, AND ESPECIALLY AMOUNTS IS
EXTREMELY LOW.
FOR THE SAKE OF THE FORECAST, HOPEFULLY THESE TWO MODELS CAN
RECONCILE THEIR GRIEVANCES BETWEEN ONE ANOTHER SOON. MAYBE HAVE
LUNCH AT THE SAME RESTAURANT. POSSIBLY EVEN THE SAME TABLE WOULD BE
NICE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
RADAR RETURNS ARE STREAMING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, BUT
WITHOUT ANY SURFACE REPORTS OF PRECIP IT WOULD APPEAR THAT IT IS
STILL VIRGA. A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW REMAINS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL
MID DAY IN AN AREA FROM KSYM TO KPBX. HOWEVER, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
THERE WILL BE RESTRICTIONS, AND THE FORECAST IS VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL
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