185
FXUS63 KJKL 081938
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
238 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL
LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WORKWEEK, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ONLY
SLOWLY THIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER
20S FOR MOST PLACES NORTHEAST OF KY-15 TO AROUND 40F IN SOUTHERN
WAYNE AND MCCREARY COUNTIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
NOTABLE RADAR RETURNS ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE RLX/ILN AREAS
LATE THIS MORNING. WHILE A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM
FLEMING DOWN TO PIKE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, A
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE NOTHING AT ALL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 723 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
RADAR RETURNS ARE STREAMING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT WITHOUT ANY SURFACE REPORTS OF
PRECIP IT WOULD APPEAR THAT IT IS STILL VIRGA. A SMALL CHANCE OF
SNOW REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THERE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, EARLY
MORNING OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND SKY CONDITION HAVE BEEN BLENDED
INTO THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS ALOFT OVER NORTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN OH
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT ONLY VIRGA OCCURRING AT THIS POINT. THERE
IS SOME SNOW REACHING THE GROUND TO THE NORTHWEST IN IN.
EVENTUALLY SNOW SHOULD REACH THE GROUND FURTHER SOUTHEAST. THE
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET. MODELS HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING NE/SW WITH
WHERE THE LIFT FROM THESE FEATURES WILL BE MAXIMIZED TODAY. LAST
NIGHT'S RUNS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NE. THIS TAKES THE
GREATEST PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SNOWFALL TODAY JUST TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. HAVE HELD ON TO 20-30% POP OVER OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WHATEVER OCCURS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE LATE
THIS MORNING, WITH ANY SNOW WINDING DOWN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE THIS VERY WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND OUR FLOW ALOFT REMAINS BENIGN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MORE SUN POTENTIAL ON MONDAY
SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES HIGHER-- AT LEAST INTO THE 40S, WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
AS THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS, THE COMMONWEALTH WILL RESIDE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TO START THE DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND MID-
60S. THIS SIGNIFICANT WARMING PRECEDES A SYNOPTIC WAVE ORIGINATING
IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. AS
THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT DIVES THROUGH THE CWA, POP WILL INCREASE.
WHILE THE PRIMARY NORTHERN LOW DEPARTS, THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
STALL OR BECOME A FOCUSED CORRIDOR FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FEATURE
TO TRAVERSE BEFORE EXITING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES
WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS EXIT WEDNESDAY MORNING, A BRIEF
TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. ANY WINTRY MIX WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED, AS DIURNAL WARMING WILL FAVOR A TRANSITION BACK TO
ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND AN APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO DRY THE AREA OUT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL PLATEAU IN THE UPPER
30S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS, WHILE WARMING INTO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE
CUMBERLAND BASIN. ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THURSDAY, A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY DECLINE FROM THE TUESDAY PEAK, SETTLING INTO THE 40S FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD. WHILE THESE VALUES PRIMARILY SUPPORT RAIN,
NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING EACH NIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR A RAIN-SNOW MIX THROUGH SUNRISE. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, THOUGH AN ISOLATED DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WHERE LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES ARE BRIEFLY HIGHER.
IN SUMMARY, THE PERIOD BEGINS DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THIS TREND HALTS AS A SERIES OF SURFACE WAVES TRAVERSE THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, BRINGING REPEATED CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF BREAK IS FORECAST FOR LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
RETURN TO AN ACTIVE, UNSETTLED PATTERN LATE THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
MID AND HIGH CEILINGS WERE NOTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AT TAF
ISSUANCE. THE CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING, BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST WINDOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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