002
FXUS63 KJKL 082345 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
645 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SHARPLY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MID-60S ACROSS THE REGION.
- EXPECT LIGHT RAIN CHANCE FROM TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
- AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY,
THERE WILL BE REPEATED CHANCES FOR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY EVEN AS IT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS IS SETTLING THE LIGHT WINDS BUT WAS NOT ABLE TO CLEAR OUT THE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY,
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S IN
THE FAR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS,
DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID
TEENS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF
THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
THE FINAL AFTERNOON OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS UNDERWAY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S FOR
LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF KY-15, RANGING UP TO THE MID/UPPER 30S NEAR
LAKE CUMBERLAND UNDER PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. EASTERN
KENTUCKY LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ~1034 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER GEORGIAN BAY. ALOFT, DEEP TROUGHING IS STARTING TO
SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS WHILE RIDGING IS APPROACHING FROM
THE PLAINS. MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH, LEADING TO THE ONGOING CLOUDINESS.
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-
TERM PERIOD AS THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHIFTS EAST, SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL SEND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SURGING FROM 0 TO -9C (SW-NE)
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 TO 12C BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE WAA AND
PASSING WEAK PERTURBATIONS WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER
AT TIMES, BUT THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A ROBUST WARMING TREND
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO THIN TONIGHT, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE LOW 10S IN NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS
TO THE MID 20S NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND. TEMPERATURES MAY HOLD STEADY
OR RISE LATE FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR WESTWARD AND OVER THE THERMAL
BELT RIDGES. ON MONDAY, A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL BECOME
NOTABLE BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES SOAR TO NEAR 40F NEAR/NORTH
OF I-64 TO AROUND 60F IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE CUMBERLAND UNDER
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES DIP BACK INTO THE 30S
TO NEAR 40F FOR MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH SOME OF THE COLDER
NORTHEASTERN HOLLOWS COULD STILL DIP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
AS THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS, THE COMMONWEALTH WILL RESIDE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TO START THE DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND MID-
60S. THIS SIGNIFICANT WARMING PRECEDES A SYNOPTIC WAVE ORIGINATING
IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. AS
THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT DIVES THROUGH THE CWA, POP WILL INCREASE.
WHILE THE PRIMARY NORTHERN LOW DEPARTS, THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
STALL OR BECOME A FOCUSED CORRIDOR FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FEATURE
TO TRAVERSE BEFORE EXITING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES
WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS EXIT WEDNESDAY MORNING, A BRIEF
TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. ANY WINTRY MIX WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED, AS DIURNAL WARMING WILL FAVOR A TRANSITION BACK TO
ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND AN APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO DRY THE AREA OUT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL PLATEAU IN THE UPPER
30S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS, WHILE WARMING INTO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE
CUMBERLAND BASIN. ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THURSDAY, A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY DECLINE FROM THE TUESDAY PEAK, SETTLING INTO THE 40S FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD. WHILE THESE VALUES PRIMARILY SUPPORT RAIN,
NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING EACH NIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR A RAIN-SNOW MIX THROUGH SUNRISE. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, THOUGH AN ISOLATED DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WHERE LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES ARE BRIEFLY HIGHER.
IN SUMMARY, THE PERIOD BEGINS DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THIS TREND HALTS AS A SERIES OF SURFACE WAVES TRAVERSE THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, BRINGING REPEATED CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF BREAK IS FORECAST FOR LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
RETURN TO AN ACTIVE, UNSETTLED PATTERN LATE THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
MID AND HIGH CEILINGS WERE NOTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AT 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. THESE CLOUD DECKS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING, BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER AT TIMES
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST WINDOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY, MONDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
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