919
FXUS63 KJKL 090842
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
342 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LARGE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY, PROBABLY
YIELDING SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN A MONTH'S TIME.
- THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN, MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FINISH OUT
THE WEEK.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL RETURN AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
A CLOUD DECK AT 5-7K FT AGL HAS BEEN EXPANDING AND IS NOW JUST
ABOUT COVERING THE JKL FORECAST AREA. IT IS A THIN LAYER
APPARENTLY CREATED ON ISENTROPIC LIFT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
(ESPECIALLY AROUND THE 290K THETA LAYER). IT HAS GREATLY AFFECTED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO RAISE VALUES
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. EXAMINATION OF THE MOISTURE BEARING LAYER
IN LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD DECK WILL EVENTUALLY
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TREND IS LOW. IF
CLOUDS LINGER TOO LONG IT WOULD HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWN.
LINGERING SNOW AND ICE MAY ALSO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN, ESPECIALLY
IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
WILL EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO LARGELY BE GONE TONIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, BUT WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RADIATE
SOME. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY
GIVE US THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE'VE SEEN IN ABOUT A MONTH.
ALONG WITH THIS WILL COME AN INCREASE IN SHALLOW MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE. SUNDAY NIGHT'S MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING VERY LIGHT PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ARRIVES, AND A SMALL POP HAS
BEEN ADDED TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON'S FORECAST. ONCE AGAIN, THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS (AND IN THIS CASE, RAIN) AND THE SNOW/ICE
WHICH LINGERS ON THE GROUND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW WARM IT DOES
OR DOES NOT GET, WHICH LEAVES SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE NOTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. THESE CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY THIN AND BREAK UP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
BUT HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST WINDOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY, MONDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GREIF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page