719
FXUS63 KJKL 091128
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
628 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LARGE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY, PROBABLY
YIELDING SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN A MONTH'S TIME.
- THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN, MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FINISH OUT
THE WEEK.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL RETURN AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
A CLOUD DECK AT 5-7K FT AGL HAS BEEN EXPANDING AND IS NOW JUST
ABOUT COVERING THE JKL FORECAST AREA. IT IS A THIN LAYER
APPARENTLY CREATED ON ISENTROPIC LIFT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
(ESPECIALLY AROUND THE 290K THETA LAYER). IT HAS GREATLY AFFECTED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO RAISE VALUES
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. EXAMINATION OF THE MOISTURE BEARING LAYER
IN LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD DECK WILL EVENTUALLY
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TREND IS LOW. IF
CLOUDS LINGER TOO LONG IT WOULD HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWN.
LINGERING SNOW AND ICE MAY ALSO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN, ESPECIALLY
IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
WILL EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO LARGELY BE GONE TONIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, BUT WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RADIATE
SOME. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY
GIVE US THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE'VE SEEN IN ABOUT A MONTH.
ALONG WITH THIS WILL COME AN INCREASE IN SHALLOW MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE. SUNDAY NIGHT'S MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING VERY LIGHT PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ARRIVES, AND A SMALL POP HAS
BEEN ADDED TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON'S FORECAST. ONCE AGAIN, THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS (AND IN THIS CASE, RAIN) AND THE SNOW/ICE
WHICH LINGERS ON THE GROUND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW WARM IT DOES
OR DOES NOT GET, WHICH LEAVES SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 549 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHEN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD OPENS ON TUESDAY EVENING, A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE PARENT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO NORTH IN CANADA AS THIS
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO
WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES DISPLACED FROM ITS DYNAMIC SUPPORT. HOWEVER,
IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY. MODELS DEPICT A DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THAT WAVE DEAMPLIFIES
UPON APPROACH, THE RELATED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MORE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE
AND THE ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL FORCING YIELDS GREATER THAN 50% POPS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE WARMER
THAN NORMAL PRE- FRONTAL TEMPERATURES FAVOR PLAIN RAIN AS
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE, AND QPF GENERALLY REMAINS IN THE
0.05-0.15 INCH RANGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS AROUND 0.25 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE
TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA STATE LINES, BUT THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THAT THRESHOLD REMAINS LESS THAN 45%.
RECENT FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS HAS ACCORDINGLY
DECREASED THE LIKELIHOOD OF WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM,
ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES MAY STILL MIX IN AT HIGHER-ELEVATIONS.
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
POSTFRONTAL CANADIAN HIGH WILL ADVECT A COOLER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
INTO THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S ON BOTH DAYS, WITH
SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP IN THE BIG SANDY BASIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME POTENTIALLY LAKE-ENHANCED MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE NOW-OCCLUDED AND BROADENED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, BUT AN AREA-WIDE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE'S APPROACH.
WHILE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
TO SET UP IN THE GREATER OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
BY LATE WEEK, THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE POSITIONED IN BETWEEN BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NE CONUS AND A BUILDING/FLATTENING RIDGE IN
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL
NAVIGATE THROUGH THE RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT AND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM, AND POPS ARE ACCORDINGLY RELEGATED TO LESS THAN 30% IN THE
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE COOLER AIRMASS
IN PLACE, THAT PRECIPITATION COULD FALL IN A FROZEN FORM. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW FRONTOGENETIC PRECIPITATION BAND IS
PLAUSIBLE, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ITS TIMING/POSITIONING IS LOW.
TRENDS IN HIGHER-RESOLUTION FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS THIS MORE SUBTLE SET-UP ENTERS THEIR TEMPORAL
RANGE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE APPROACH OF A BETTER-DEFINED SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. A DEEPER TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGING AND MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES SPREAD OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS UPSTREAM SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES ROOT
AND THE ANTECEDENT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST,
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PRIME THE
FORECAST AREA FOR INCREASING LIQUID PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE
DEGREE OF WARMING AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THAT MOISTURE RETURN IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THAT THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUITE
RESOLVES THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM QUITE DIFFERENTLY AT THE
TIME OF WRITING. IF A WELL-ORGANIZED, VERTICALLY-STACKED SYSTEM
COMES TO FRUITION AND EASTERN KY IS POSITIONED FIRMLY WITHIN ITS
WARM SECTOR, HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE SATURDAY
EVENING-SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. POPS PEAK BETWEEN 60 AND 75%
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THIS WINDOW, AND FORECAST
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE BOTH WELL ABOVE FREEZING THIS WEEKEND.
THEREFORE, RAIN IS THE FAVORED P-TYPE. BECAUSE THIS RAIN MAY COME IN
THE IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH OF SNOW/ICE MELT, WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR PROBABILISTIC HYDRO DATA AS GUIDANCE COMES TOWARDS A
SYNOPTIC CONSENSUS IN THE COMING DAYS AND THE SYSTEM'S QPF BECOMES
CLEARER.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
A CLOUD LAYER IN THE 5-7K FT AGL RANGE COVERED MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT TAF ISSUANCE, BUT IT WAS BREAKING UP FROM WEST TO
EAST. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THESE CLOUDS WELL. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF MODEL INFO AND EXTRAPOLATION
OF MOVEMENT. WHILE THE TAFS DO HAVE THEM LEAVING TODAY, THE
TIMING SHOULD ONLY BE CONSIDERED A ROUGH APPROXIMATION. ONCE
THEY'RE GONE, NOTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...HAL
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