957
FXUS63 KJKL 091915
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
215 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY, PROBABLY YIELDING
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN WEEKS.
- THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN, MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FINISH OUT
THE WEEK.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAIN WILL RETURN AS WE HEAD TOWARD
THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
SPRING-LIKE WARMTH IS EXPANDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK RETREATS INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.
TEMPERATURES AT EARLY AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 61F AT THE MONTICELLO
AIRPORT IN THE SOUTHWEST TO 34F AT FLEMING MASON AIRPORT IN THE
NORTH. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED INTO THE LOW/MID
60S FOR THE LAKE CUMBERLAND VICINITY BUT REMAIN NEAR 40F FOR
NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK, ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTHEAST OF KY-15
CONTINUES TO RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD VERY SLOWLY LATE THIS MORNING.
EXPECT IT TO GRADUALLY DEPART NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA BETWEEN 1 AND
3 PM. BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND STRONG SENSIBLE HEATING SHOULD SEND
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST PLACES SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF I-75 AND
ALSO IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS ALONG THE MAIN FORKS OF THE KENTUCKY
RIVER WHERE THERE IS LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER COULD FLIRT WITH 60F.
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE BLUEGRASS
WHERE SNOW COVER IS DEEPER, MAINLY 40S FOR HIGHS THERE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC. HAVE INCORPORATED THE
LATEST TRENDS INTO THE FORECAST, WITH A BIT FASTER BREAKUP THIS
MORNING. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WARMER THAN EXPECTED
DUE TO CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND THE LATEST READINGS HAVE
BEEN USED AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
A CLOUD DECK AT 5-7K FT AGL HAS BEEN EXPANDING AND IS NOW JUST
ABOUT COVERING THE JKL FORECAST AREA. IT IS A THIN LAYER
APPARENTLY CREATED ON ISENTROPIC LIFT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
(ESPECIALLY AROUND THE 290K THETA LAYER). IT HAS GREATLY AFFECTED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO RAISE VALUES
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. EXAMINATION OF THE MOISTURE BEARING LAYER
IN LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD DECK WILL EVENTUALLY
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TREND IS LOW. IF
CLOUDS LINGER TOO LONG IT WOULD HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWN.
LINGERING SNOW AND ICE MAY ALSO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN, ESPECIALLY
IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
WILL EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO LARGELY BE GONE TONIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, BUT WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RADIATE
SOME. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY
GIVE US THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE'VE SEEN IN ABOUT A MONTH.
ALONG WITH THIS WILL COME AN INCREASE IN SHALLOW MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE. SUNDAY NIGHT'S MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING VERY LIGHT PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ARRIVES, AND A SMALL POP HAS
BEEN ADDED TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON'S FORECAST. ONCE AGAIN, THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS (AND IN THIS CASE, RAIN) AND THE SNOW/ICE
WHICH LINGERS ON THE GROUND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW WARM IT DOES
OR DOES NOT GET, WHICH LEAVES SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
THE MID- TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW BENEATH AN ACTIVE MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM
PUSHING A SERIES OF MOSTLY DRY SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND TUESDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN A
MODEST COOLDOWN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND LOWS RETURNING TO THE
20S EACH NIGHT.
ATTENTION FOR THE WEEKEND THEN TURNS TO A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS, WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY
INCREASING IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME MODELING KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS JUST EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WHILE OTHER MODELING KEEP THE INLAND LOW
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A WEAKER COASTAL LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE. REGARDLESS, THERE LOOK
TO BE NO REAL P-TYPE CONCERNS WITH THIS POTENTIAL MILLER B
CYCLONE, BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING
RAINFALL, AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE, WITH CURRENT QPF FOR THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM BETWEEN 1.3 INCHES IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA TO AS HIGH AS 2.5 INCHES IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA. THIS
WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR SOME HIGH WATER AND RESULTING RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES AS GROUND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO THAW AND
RESIDUAL SNOW/ICE SLOWLY MELTS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
A MID-LEVEL CLOUD LAYER IN THE 5-7K FT AGL RANGE IS GRADUALLY
RETREATING NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REST OF THE THE JKL CWA
INCLUDING SJS BY/BEFORE 20Z. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY WHEN LOWER CEILINGS
RETURN AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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