930
FXUS63 KJKL 092030
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY, YIELDING SOME OF
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN WEEKS.
- THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS, MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FINISH OUT
THE WEEK.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAIN WILL RETURN AS WE HEAD TOWARD
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
THERMOMETERS ARE SOARING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO LEVELS NOT
SEEN IN 18+ DAYS AND CLOSE TO A MONTH IN SOME AREAS. AT 2030Z,
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND
AREA TO NEAR 40F IN THE BLUEGRASS OF NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY. THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE WHERE SNOW COVER HAD ALREADY MELTED AWAY
WHILE THE COLDER READINGS ARE WHERE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER
REMAINS (MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY). THE BEAUTIFUL
SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD, FEEDING A MILD SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
BACK NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE IS A 500 HPA
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH AN
ASSOCIATED ~1005 MB SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE MN/ON BORDER AND A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND WESTWARD BACK INTO WYOMING.
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO OVER
NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION RACES
TO OFF THE COAST OF MAINE. THE SYSTEM'S TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
DECISIVELY DROP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM'S
INTENSIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY WARM CONVEYOR BELT JET WILL BRING
MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA,
NOTABLY AROUND AND AFTER DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-
RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH DEW POINT AIR MASS COULD LEAD TO
A PERIOD OF ADVECTION FOG (POTENTIALLY DENSE) ON TUESDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE LINGERING SNOWPACK SUCH AS
THE BLUEGRASS AND POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT COUNTIES FROM ROCKCASTLE
NORTHEASTWARD, BUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW
AT THIS TIME. OF FINAL NOTE, THE CAMS SUGGEST A NARROW LINE OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE I-64
CORRIDOR AROUND SUNSET ON TUESDAY AND DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT. BEHIND THAT FRONT, A SEASONABLE FEBRUARY AIR
MASS RETURNS WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 0C.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR SUNSHINE AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO YIELD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
COLDEST NORTHERN HOLLOWS TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ON THERMAL
BELT RIDGES AND OPEN, EXPOSED TERRAIN WEST OF I-75. FOR TUESDAY,
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN MAKE A RUN TOWARD 70F IN MANY OF THE
DEEPER, BROADER VALLEYS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/KY-80
CORRIDOR BUT ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH OF I-64. SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW COVER IS STILL
PRESENT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BECOME BREEZY AND INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH EXPECTED. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE THEN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
NORTH OF I-64, BECOMING MORE OF A LINE AND SETTLING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING AND DEPARTING INTO VIRGINIA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TUMBLE BEHIND THOSE SHOWERS, BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S
NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH BY DAWN WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
THE MID- TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW BENEATH AN ACTIVE MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM
PUSHING A SERIES OF MOSTLY DRY SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND TUESDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN A
MODEST COOLDOWN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND LOWS RETURNING TO THE
20S EACH NIGHT.
ATTENTION FOR THE WEEKEND THEN TURNS TO A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS, WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY
INCREASING IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME MODELING KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS JUST EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WHILE OTHER MODELING KEEP THE INLAND LOW
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A WEAKER COASTAL LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE. REGARDLESS, THERE LOOK
TO BE NO REAL P-TYPE CONCERNS WITH THIS POTENTIAL MILLER B
CYCLONE, BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING
RAINFALL, AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE, WITH CURRENT QPF FOR THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM BETWEEN 1.3 INCHES IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA TO AS HIGH AS 2.5 INCHES IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA. THIS
WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR SOME HIGH WATER AND RESULTING RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES AS GROUND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO THAW AND
RESIDUAL SNOW/ICE SLOWLY MELTS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
A MID-LEVEL CLOUD LAYER IN THE 5-7K FT AGL RANGE IS GRADUALLY
RETREATING NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REST OF THE THE JKL CWA
INCLUDING SJS BY/BEFORE 20Z. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY WHEN LOWER CEILINGS
RETURN AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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