706
FXUS63 KJKL 100849
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
349 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY SHOULD BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE'VE HAD IN MORE
THAN A MONTH.
- THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN
FOR MOST LOCATIONS, MAINLY TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAIN WILL RETURN AS WE HEAD TOWARD
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUN THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY WILL GIVE US OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN MORE THAN
A MONTH. SEEING HOW MAX TEMPS PERFORMED ON MONDAY, HAVE GONE AHEAD
WITH QUITE WARM READINGS FOR TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE LEADING PORTION OF THIS WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PULLED THROUGH KY.
THAT WILL SET US UP FOR RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA (MAINLY
TONIGHT) AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. HOWEVER, IT'S QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE ARRIVES BEFORE FROPA TO GIVE RAIN IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
RAPID DRYING AND COOLING ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT,
WITH RAIN ENDING. THE EVOLUTION OF SKY COVER IS LESS CERTAIN. THE
GFS HAS ENOUGH DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE
ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE NAM HOLDS ONTO VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE IN
STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW AN INVERSION TO KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
(ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES). THE NBM SKY GRIDS LEANED
TOWARD THE GFS. HOWEVER, BEING THAT IT IS STILL COLD SEASON AND
BOTH MODELS ARE FORECASTING UPSLOPE COLD AIR ADVECTION, THE NAM
WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED, AND SKY COVER WAS RAISED ABOVE
THE NBM VALUES ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z TAFS. EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY WHEN LOWER CEILINGS
(BUT STILL VFR) RETURN AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE CIGS
FALL FURTHER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF WIND SHEAR
EARLY TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATER THAT EVENING - MAINLY FROM SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF AROUND 40 KTS OFF THE SFC.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GREIF
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