434
FXUS63 KJKL 101753
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1253 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY SHOULD BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE'VE HAD IN MORE
THAN A MONTH.
- THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN
FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAIN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE SOARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THROUGH THE 50S
NORTH OF I-64, THROUGH THE 60S MOST PLACES SOUTH OF I-64 AND HAVE
EVEN ECLIPSED THE 70F MARK AT SOMERSET, MONTICELLO, AND
BOONEVILLE. WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING AHEAD, EXPECT MANY OF
THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO
SURPASS 70F. DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN
AT JKL AND LOZ.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO RISE SHARPLY WITH THE ONSET OF
DIURNAL HEATING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS WITH
LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER -- MONTICELLO SAW A 18 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
RISE IN 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 845 AM AND 900 AM. GIVEN 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES IN THE 9-10C RANGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD MIXING
TO THAT LEVEL IN AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER, ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW MID 70 READINGS NOT
OUTSIDE OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. FURTHER
NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW COVER, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. THE DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 67F AT JKL AND 69F AT LOZ
ARE LIKELY IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN.
MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A DEVELOPING CUMULUS
CLOUD FIELD, SO IT WILL LIKELY LOOK MORE LIKE A SPRING AFTERNOON
OUT THERE -- NOT A FEBRUARY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, IT WILL
BECOME BREEZY AS BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES
SUPPORTING SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WITH A COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT
AND GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS, THERE ARE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES ON THE ORDER OF 20+ DEG F THIS MORNING. WITH A VERY
STEEP INVERSION IN PLACE, VALLEYS WILL WARM VERY QUICKLY ONCE
HEATING/MIXING OCCURS AND THE INVERSION BREAKS. THESE CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN INITIALIZED INTO TODAY'S FORECAST. THE BULK OF THE DAY'S
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUN THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY WILL GIVE US OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN MORE THAN
A MONTH. SEEING HOW MAX TEMPS PERFORMED ON MONDAY, HAVE GONE AHEAD
WITH QUITE WARM READINGS FOR TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE LEADING PORTION OF THIS WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PULLED THROUGH KY.
THAT WILL SET US UP FOR RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA (MAINLY
TONIGHT) AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. HOWEVER, IT'S QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE ARRIVES BEFORE FROPA TO GIVE RAIN IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
RAPID DRYING AND COOLING ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT,
WITH RAIN ENDING. THE EVOLUTION OF SKY COVER IS LESS CERTAIN. THE
GFS HAS ENOUGH DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE
ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE NAM HOLDS ONTO VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE IN
STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW AN INVERSION TO KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
(ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES). THE NBM SKY GRIDS LEANED
TOWARD THE GFS. HOWEVER, BEING THAT IT IS STILL COLD SEASON AND
BOTH MODELS ARE FORECASTING UPSLOPE COLD AIR ADVECTION, THE NAM
WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED, AND SKY COVER WAS RAISED ABOVE
THE NBM VALUES ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH AN
UPCOMING PATTERN SHIFT FAVORS A WARMER AND WETTER WEEKEND FORECAST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS A BYPRODUCT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A FLATTENED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE FEATURES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EAST HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND A SHIFT TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED HERE
IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER UPSTREAM, A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BECOME A CLOSED
LOW. THIS EJECTION IS EXPECTED TO YIELD LEEWARD SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND BY SUNDAY, ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT THESE SYNOPTICS
GENERALLY POINT TOWARDS A PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THIS WEEKEND. STRONGER RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, AND
THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHEN THE PERIOD OPENS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, A CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE
WILL BE NUDGING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS POINT TOWARDS RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT
POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH SOME OF GUIDANCE HINTS AT INCREASING MIDLEVEL
CLOUD POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND TO ENSURE
CONTINUITY WITH THE DAYTIME FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY, CONS DATA WAS
BLENDED INTO THE BASELINE NBM FOR THE SKY GRIDS. THIS BLENDED
SOLUTION DOES NOT CLOUD THE SKIES ENOUGH TO PREVENT TERRAIN-BASED
TEMPERATURE SPLITS, BUT IF THE CLOUDS COME TO FRUITION, THE CURRENT
FORECAST VALLEY LOWS NEAR 20 DEGREES COULD BE TOO LOW. REGARDLESS,
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW FREEZING AREA-WIDE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THIS COULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING WET SPOTS FROM
SNOW MELT TO RE-FREEZE.
DRIER WEATHER PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY, BUT AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO YIELD INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW A SW (WARMER) TO NE (COOLER) GRADIENT, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S/UPPER 30S AND LOWS BETWEEN THE LOW
30S/LOW 20S. WHILE POPS HAVE DROPPED TO BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES IN
THE LATEST NBM DATA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, WE STILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW NW-TO-SE ORIENTED BAND OF FRONTOGENICALLY-
FORCED PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE OVERLAP BETWEEN
WEAK CYCLONIC VORTICITY, OVERRUNNING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE, AND FREEZING
LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES, IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION
COULD COME IN THE FORM OF A LIGHT SNOW. IT WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN, AND THE RESULTANT EVAPORATION
COULD ALSO CAUSE IT TO TAKE THE FORM OF VIRGA. NO MEANINGFUL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST, BUT TRENDS IN HIGHER-
RESOLUTION FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL BE REVIEWED CAREFULLY AS THIS
MESOSCALE EVENT ENTERS THEIR TEMPORAL RANGE.
BY FRIDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE EAST,
ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. ONE LAST
DAY OF COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE EFFICACY OF ANY WARM
AIR ADVECTION, BUT FRIDAY'S AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S (NORTH)
AND LOWER 50S (SOUTH) WILL KICK-START THE PERIOD'S OVERARCHING
WARMING TREND. EXPECT BOTH CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE
HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM INTO THE COLUMN OUT AHEAD OF THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE COLDEST VALLEYS COULD SEE
ONE MORE NIGHT OF BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 50S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AREA-WIDE. LOWS WILL
RISE WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN THIS SAME TIME FRAME, AND THIS
REINFORCES THE NOTION THAT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A PLAIN LIQUID RAIN.
THE SPECIFIC EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, SO
IT IS DIFFICULT TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC QPF DETAILS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS. DETERMINISTIC FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO RESOLVE DIFFERENT SYSTEM TRAJECTORIES FROM RUN TO RUN, BUT THE
BLENDED ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE. IF THE SOUTHERN TRACK SOLUTION LIKE THE ONE
PRESENTED IN THE 00Z EURO AND OLDER GFS RUNS MATERIALIZES, THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE LATEST NBM RUN DECREASED
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH THE
GREATEST (70-90%) POPS COMING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY.
THIS DECREASE APPEARS REASONABLE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE GREATEST
LREF PROBABILITIES OF >1 INCH OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS ARE NOW CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE. LREF MEAN PWATS
APPROACHING 1 INCH IN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY STILL RANK NEAR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF MODEL CLIMATOLOGY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN THE CUMBERLAND AND
KENTUCKY RIVER BASINS. THANKFULLY, TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
EARLIER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD SNOWMELT IN
THESE SOUTHERN LOCALES WELL AHEAD OF THE ONSET OF THIS
PRECIPITATION. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RIVER
RESPONSES THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILISTIC HYDRO ENSEMBLE
DATA (GEFS, NAEFS, AND HEFS) SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A 25-35% CHANCE
OF APPROACHING ACTION STAGE FLOWS AT RAVENNA AND HEIDELBERG IN THE
NEXT 10 DAYS. THOSE PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO LOWER THAN THEY WERE AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY, BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER/STREAM RISES,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, AND WILL LAST
THROUGH TODAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DIPS INTO IFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT SJS, JKL, SYM, OR IOB BUT
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPORAL/SPATIAL DETAIL WAS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE TAF. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT, BUT MVFR (PERHAPS SOME IFR) CEILINGS WILL LAST LONGER.
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE SLOW, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HAL
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