533
FXUS63 KJKL 102007
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY SHOULD BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE'VE HAD IN MORE
THAN A MONTH.
- THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN
FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAIN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE SOARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THROUGH THE 50S
NORTH OF I-64, THROUGH THE 60S MOST PLACES SOUTH OF I-64 AND HAVE
EVEN ECLIPSED THE 70F MARK AT SOMERSET, MONTICELLO, AND
BOONEVILLE. WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING AHEAD, EXPECT MANY OF
THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO
SURPASS 70F. DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN
AT JKL AND LOZ.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO RISE SHARPLY WITH THE ONSET OF
DIURNAL HEATING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS WITH
LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER -- MONTICELLO SAW A 18 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
RISE IN 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 845 AM AND 900 AM. GIVEN 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES IN THE 9-10C RANGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD MIXING
TO THAT LEVEL IN AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER, ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW MID 70 READINGS NOT
OUTSIDE OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. FURTHER
NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW COVER, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. THE DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 67F AT JKL AND 69F AT LOZ
ARE LIKELY IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN.
MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A DEVELOPING CUMULUS
CLOUD FIELD, SO IT WILL LIKELY LOOK MORE LIKE A SPRING AFTERNOON
OUT THERE -- NOT A FEBRUARY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, IT WILL
BECOME BREEZY AS BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES
SUPPORTING SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WITH A COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT
AND GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS, THERE ARE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES ON THE ORDER OF 20+ DEG F THIS MORNING. WITH A VERY
STEEP INVERSION IN PLACE, VALLEYS WILL WARM VERY QUICKLY ONCE
HEATING/MIXING OCCURS AND THE INVERSION BREAKS. THESE CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN INITIALIZED INTO TODAY'S FORECAST. THE BULK OF THE DAY'S
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE PASSING EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUN THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY WILL GIVE US OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN MORE THAN
A MONTH. SEEING HOW MAX TEMPS PERFORMED ON MONDAY, HAVE GONE AHEAD
WITH QUITE WARM READINGS FOR TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE LEADING PORTION OF THIS WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PULLED THROUGH KY.
THAT WILL SET US UP FOR RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA (MAINLY
TONIGHT) AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. HOWEVER, IT'S QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE ARRIVES BEFORE FROPA TO GIVE RAIN IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
RAPID DRYING AND COOLING ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT,
WITH RAIN ENDING. THE EVOLUTION OF SKY COVER IS LESS CERTAIN. THE
GFS HAS ENOUGH DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE
ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE NAM HOLDS ONTO VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE IN
STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW AN INVERSION TO KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
(ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES). THE NBM SKY GRIDS LEANED
TOWARD THE GFS. HOWEVER, BEING THAT IT IS STILL COLD SEASON AND
BOTH MODELS ARE FORECASTING UPSLOPE COLD AIR ADVECTION, THE NAM
WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED, AND SKY COVER WAS RAISED ABOVE
THE NBM VALUES ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
LOOKING AT 500-MB FEATURES ACROSS CONUS, THERE'S LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHEAST US, AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
THROUGH THURSDAY, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S, WHILE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S, THE LOWEST LEVELS MAY
REMAIN TOO DRY TO SEE PRECIPITATION ALOFT MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. AT
CURRENT, POPS REMAIN UNDER 10% AND AT MOST, MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES COULD OCCUR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
THROUGH THE DAY, COOLING INTO THE MID TO 20S FOR MOST. SOME AREAS IN
THE NORTHEAST MAY DIP INTO THE TEENS.
THROUGH FRIDAY, AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW, THE ONE OFF THE COST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF
THE SOUTHWEST, AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT ON THE
STRENGTH, PHASING, TRACK, AND MORE OF THE FINER DETAILS, HOWEVER THE
OVERALL THINKING IS THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US, WITH RAIN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT OCCURRING ACROSS
KENTUCKY. AT CURRENT, AMOUNTS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD, BUT THAT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOWS TRACK. CURRENT REMAINING
SNOW AND ICE SHOULD WHITTLE DOWN FROM WARMER TEMPERATURES EARLIER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE RIVER FLOODING, WITH
NO RIVER FORECAST POINTS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH ACTION STAGE.
THE KENTUCKY RIVER AT HEIDELBERG IS THE CURRENTLY THE CLOSEST
FORECAST POINT TO ACTION, BUT STILL REMAINS 2 FEET UNDER. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY, WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO
LOWER 50S TO THE SOUTH. AT NIGHT, TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S ACROSS VALLEYS, AND UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ALONG RIDGE TOPS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGH
THE DAY AND NEAR 40 AT NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE QUIET WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID 50S TO LOW 60S MONDAY, AND THE LOW
TO MID 60S ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, AND WILL LAST
THROUGH TODAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DIPS INTO IFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT SJS, JKL, SYM, OR IOB BUT
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPORAL/SPATIAL DETAIL WAS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE TAF. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT, BUT MVFR (PERHAPS SOME IFR) CEILINGS WILL LAST LONGER.
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE SLOW, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HAL
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